Calvert-Lewin came off the bench to score against Man City when the sides met earlier in the season. That clash was significant, because it saw Leeds switch to a 3-5-2 for the first time under Farke, a shape and system that has benefitted them since and platformed Calvert-Lewin to a strong shot volume in the Premier League this season.

Calvert-Lewin has had 2+ shots in four of his last five Premier League appearances, and has managed 49 shots across his 19 starts in the Premier League overall this season (2.51 per 90). Leeds playing in the 3-5-2 shape really suits Calvert-Lewin, it encourages the Leeds players to be as direct as possible into their front two - and they should be encouraged by the issues they caused City in the initial league meeting.

Leeds tend to be more adventurous when playing at Elland Road, they managed 14 shots against Nottingham Forest in their most recent home game and should take confidence from taking points off Aston Villa and Chelsea in recent matches. Calvert-Lewin is also on penalties for Leeds, offering another route to a shot if Leeds are awarded a spot kick.

This angle is priced as low as 1.25 with other major bookmakers, suggesting that the price we’re getting with bet365 here is good value.