After a European football interlude in midweek, the Premier League resumes on Saturday with back-to-back champions Manchester City continuing their hunt for a third title in consecutive seasons by visiting Leicester City.
Leicester have now taken 10 points from their last 15, and Brendan Rodgers looked to be on the brink just a few weeks ago, but now they find themselves outside the relegation zone and moving in the right direction. The Foxes’ slow start looks to have ended, but tests don’t come much tougher than a visit from Pep Guardiola’s men, and their three-game unbeaten run is likely to come to an end here.
Though they rested midweek whilst City played, Tuesday’s game against Dortmund was played at a snails’ pace, with both sides knowing a draw would confirm their progress to the knockout stages. The main worry for the visitors is the fitness of Erling Haaland, but Guardiola’s comments post-game seemed to suggest that the Norwegian will be fit to play, and even if he is forced to rest his star man, there is no shortage of talent elsewhere in the squad.
Ultimately, such is the imbalance between the two sides at the moment, Leicester’s only real hope of a result in this game is City having an off day, which has happened on a few occasions this season, however Arsenal’s stumble last week means the champions will be smelling blood, and previous years have shown that when there is a chance to pile the pressure on your title rivals, this City side almost never fail to grasp it.
A win here will take them to the top of the table and really turn up the heat on the Gunners. I expect City to do the business and return to Manchester with all three points.
Leicester City v Manchester City Bet Builder Tips
Over 2.5 Goals
Only Bournemouth (25) have conceded more than the 24 goals that Leicester have this season, and for Bournemouth that is largely down to the freak 9-0 defeat at Anfield earlier in the season. Rodgers’ side have leaked goals throughout this season and have given up 2.05xG per 90 minutes in games against the ‘big 6’ sides, conceding 13 goals in their 4 games, at a rate of 3.25 goals per game.
Leicester have kept only four clean sheets this season, with three coming against the three sides currently in the relegation zone, and the other coming against Crystal Palace.
Man City have won 5 of 6 Premier League games against bottom-half opposition, scoring 22 goals and conceding three, meaning these fixtures have averaged over 4 goals a game, with City contributing 3.6 goals per 90 minutes.
City have also scored at least three goals in 8 out of 11 Premier League games this season, scoring 2 against West Ham, once against Aston Villa and only drawing a blank away at Anfield. They are also conceding goals at a rate of 1.0 per 90 minutes, so over 2.5 goals here looks to be extremely likely.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals
Harvey Barnes to have 1+ Shots on Target
Harvey Barnes has had at least 1 shot on target in 8 of his 11 Premier League appearances this season, and in those 3 games in which he did not manage a shot on target, he still managed shoot 3, 2 and 2 times in those games respectively.
He is also likely to get a good amount of space in this game, operating down City’s right-hand side which will be manned by either Manuel Akanji, John Stones, or Joao Cancelo; all three of which will be asked to step into midfield, leaving space behind for Barnes to exploit.
Furthermore, Barnes’ pace against either Ruben Dias or Aymeric Laporte when playing a high line, and Leicester’s preference for counter-attacking football should mean he gets one or two good sights of goal, and sitting at odds-against, this price was too good to turn down considering his record.
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Prediction: Harvey Barnes 1+ Shots on Target
Under 2.5 Cards
Man City’s Premier League games this season have seen just 2.8 cards per game, of which only 0.63 per 90 minutes were for players wearing the sky blue. They have had only 7 bookings in 11 Premier League games, the fewest in the league by some distance, and the only side to average less than a card per game.
Leicester have averaged 3.3 yellows per 90 minutes, and just 1.5 of those were for the Foxes. Both sides then tend to contribute less cards than their opponents. Leicester sit around the league average for fouls per game, 10.9 per game, whilst City’s 7.5 fouls per 90 is the lowest in the league.
City have had more than 1 yellow card in just 1 of their 11 Premier League matches in 2022/23 (2 bookings vs Newcastle), whilst Leicester have never had more than 2 yellows in a game this season, hitting that mark in 7 of their 12 games.
Cards then are a bad bet in this game (I would strongly advise not adding a player to be carded selection in almost any of City’s games), and odds-against for less than 3 cards of any colour is excellent value, especially if City grab an early goal and really begin to control the game.
They can pass the ball quicker than opposing players can pressure them, and their slow attacking pace means that their opponents very rarely need to break up play and take a caution to prevent attacks, meaning cards usually come only for bad challenges rather than cynical fouls.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Cards
Under 0.5 Man City Cards
Much of the reasoning for this selection is in the write-up for the Under 2.5 Cards bet, but I’ll expand a little bit here also. City have had 5 Premier League games this season where they have received no cards at all, and four of those five have been their most comfortable wins of the season.
These games are the 4-0 win against Bournemouth, 6-0 against Forest, 6-3 against Man United and 4-0 against Southampton. All of these games saw City take control and assert themselves early on in the match and build comfortable margins before their opponents could gain a foothold, with Guardiola’s side being 3-0, 3-0, 4-0 and 2-0 up at half-time respectively.
The one exception was the 1-1 draw away to Villa in which City were comfortable right up until Villa scored and then seemed unable to kick back into gear and find a winner.
I am taking this as not only is it very good value at 3.2, but despite Leicester’s recent run of results masking them to an extent, there are still serious issues at the King Power, and I believe City can exploit them with relative ease. Leicester may have won three of their last five, but all three of those wins were against the three sides now comprising the relegation zone, Forest, Wolves and Leeds, and they did also lose to Bournemouth and draw 0-0 with Palace in that run. They are better but they are not back yet.
If City perform anywhere close to their standard this game is there for the taking and early goals will allow them to coast through the game without over-exerting themselves. If this happens, and nobody makes any stupid fouls, then there is a great chance of this coming in.
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Prediction: Under 0.5 Cards for Manchester City
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How to watch Leicester City v Manchester City in the Premier League?
📅 When is Leicester City v Manchester City? / Saturday, 29 October 2022, 12:30
🏟 Where is Leicester City v Manchester City? / King Power Stadium (Leicester)
📺 What TV channel is Leicester City v Manchester City on? / BT Sports 1 🟨 …And who is the referee for Leicester City v Manchester City? / R. Jones 🏴
