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Liverpool v Atletico Madrid 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Liverpool v Atletico Madrid 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Tuesday 16 September, 20253 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Atletico Madrid travel to Anfield on Matchday 1 of the 25/26 Champions League.

These recommended Best Bet Builder Bookmakers are worth a look for the week's UCL action.


Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Liverpool v Atletico Madrid
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 4.75

Over 0.5 Atletico Madrid Goals @ 1.50

I’m still not fully convinced about the structure of Liverpool’s backline. We saw Arne Slot take off Kerkez in the first half against Burnley after a disastrous performance from the left back in which he was almost sent off. 

Slot was seen having a stern word with Kerkez as he took him off the pitch, which suggests that this isn’t the first time that Kerkez has been spoken to about his aggression and positioning.

It’s not just Kerkez either; Konate and Van Dijk have looked exposed in every game so far apart from their 1-0 win over Arsenal, where the Gunners didn’t really go at them to take advantage of the gaps that Liverpool leave at the back. 

Diego Simeone has the tactical nous to recognise this and should set up his side to target the fullback channels, which is where all the space is when Liverpool bomb forward. 

Atletico Madrid have scored in all four of their LaLiga games this season and scored 20 goals across their eight league phase matches in the Champions League last season, leading them to a fifth-place finish.

Florian Wirtz to have 1+ Shots on Target @ 1.61

Wirtz hasn’t quite been able to settle in the Premier League yet, with the former Bayer Leverkusen player still waiting for his first goal contribution in the English top flight. However, he can use the Champions League as a platform for lift off in his Liverpool career, having been so impressive in the competition last season.

The Premier League is a very intense league, and this level of intensity isn’t really reflected in the other top five European leagues, which naturally means that games in the Champions League take on a slightly different feel, a slower feel, which is an environment that will suit Wirtz.

Wirtz has had seven shots across his four Premier League appearances so far this season (1.86 per 90), with two of these attempts finding the target (0.53 per 90). This is a small sample size, so we can’t really make any conclusions from just this data. His performances in the Champions League last season for Leverkusen give us a better idea of Wirtz’s capabilities at this level.

Wirtz scored six goals across his nine appearances in the Champions League last season. He had 26 shots across these games (3.06 per 90) with 14 of these attempts finding the target (1.65 per 90). This is the level that Wirtz can produce and where he should be consistently. I think we’ll see his best performances in the Champions League, more so than the Premier League, this season.

Ibrahima Konate to Commit 1+ Fouls @ 1.53

Konate committed a foul against Burnley last time out, taking his tally to four fouls committed across his four Premier League appearances this season, with at least one foul committed in three of these matches. He’s more aggressive than Van Dijk and will be in regular duels against Alexander Sorloth here.

Sorloth is a very physical player, and I’m surprised he hasn’t been eyed up by a Premier League side. I’d compare him to Jorgen Strand Larsen in terms of his profile, and his strength should aid our selection here. Sorloth is likely to start with Alvarez injured for this game, which is a big blow for Atletico Madrid.

Sorloth won 13 fouls across his 15 starts in LaLiga last season (0.75 per 90). He offers him a target man up front, which will allow the away side to be direct to him, both on the ground and in the air, which is where he will contest many of his duels against Konate.

Antoine Griezmann to have 1+ Shots @ 1.33

Griezmann should earn a starting spot here with Julian Alvarez absent from the squad to face Liverpool on Wednesday evening.

Griezmann has had five shots across his 151 minutes of LaLiga football this season (2.98 per 90) and is a real threat for Atletico Madrid with the experience and quality he offers the side.

Griezmann maintained a similar shot average in the Champions League last season, taking 19 shots across his 10 appearances in the competition (2.34 per 90), with this record returning six goals for the Frenchman.

Griezmann also had 50 shots across his 38 appearances in LaLiga last season (1.81 per 90). These consistent records in the Champions League and LaLiga would suggest that one shot is well within Griezmann’s grasp.

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Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Best Longshot Bets
  • Liverpool v Atletico Madrid
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 21.00

Mohamed Salah to Score Anytime @ 2.25

Salah scored his second goal of the season against Burnley from the penalty spot last time out to secure all three points for Liverpool in what proved to be a real slog of a game. He opened his account for the season on the opening weekend with a late strike against Bournemouth to secure a 4-2 victory over the Cherries.

There is already an early narrative creeping in about Salah not being up to the level he was last season. I’m always cautious about getting sucked into these discussions, as Salah has a habit of quickly proving people wrong. 

Furthermore, Salah has already registered three goal contributions across his four Premier League appearances, so whatever the overall level of his performances at the moment, he’s still showing he can deliver a reliable end product. 

Salah netted 34 goals across his 52 appearances in all competitions for Liverpool last season. I personally think it was the best season we’ve seen from Salah in a Liverpool shirt, but the one area he may wish to improve on is his record in the Champions League.

Salah scored three goals across his nine appearances in the Champions League as Liverpool reached the round of 16. He has recorded higher tallies in previous seasons, with each of the last two Champions League campaigns that Salah has participated in seeing the Egyptian score at least eight goals.

Johnny Cardoso to be Shown a Card @ 6.0

Cardoso has been shown two yellow cards across his three appearances in LaLiga so far this season. He was shown five yellow cards across their entirety of last season in LaLiga, so is only three cautions away from matching his total from last season.

Cardoso has committed five fouls across these matches (2.43 per 90), which is a record that explains his early flurry of cautions this season. He is a talented player and was the subject of intense transfer speculation over the summer, but he will have a tough task in managing the threat of Florian Wirtz here.

Wirtz has won four fouls across his four Premier League appearances this season (1.07 per 90). This is a steady record, but Wirtz is capable of winning many more fouls when looking at his numbers for Leverkusen last season. Wirtz averaged 3.13 successful dribbles per 90 and 1.49 fouls won per 90 in the Bundesliga last season.

Milos Kerkez to Commit 1+ Fouls @ 1.80

Some people thought it was a bit harsh from Slot to take off Kerkez in the first half against Burnley, but I thought it was good management. Kerkez was on a yellow card and kept flying into tackles, against a Burnley side that more often than not were targeting Liverpool down his side.

This isn’t the first time that Slot has done this. I remember his first game in charge of Liverpool in the Premier League away against Ipswich, where he took off Quansah at half-time to replace him with Konate, citing the threat that Liam Delap was causing Liverpool against Quansah.

Liverpool were much better in the second half of that game and secured the three points; the same thing happened against Burnley.

I don’t think Kerkez is going to change too much; he is an aggressive player and likes to get tight to his marker. He’s picked up two yellow cards across his four Premier League appearances this season and three fouls across these games.

He’ll be lining up against Simeone here, who was fouled five times in Atletico Madrid’s 2-0 victory over Villarreal last time out.

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📂 Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Cheat Sheet

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📈 Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Form & Tactics

Liverpool have started perfectly with four wins from their opening four Premier League matches of the season.

This doesn’t quite tell the full story, but it’s the only record that Slot will care about as they eye up a deeper run in the Champions League this time around.

Listening to Slot in some of his press conferences recently and in the build-up to the season, it sounds like he’s really focusing on the Champions League this year. 

He was far from pleased when finding out that Liverpool’s reward for topping the league phase last season was a tie against eventual winners PSG, and maybe that experience will impact some of his decision-making this time around. 

Liverpool have a rich history in the Champions League, and I would expect them to reach the latter stages of the competition. However, their defence does concern me - particularly in instances where Liverpool may have an awkward away tie to contest.

Atletico Madrid’s signings over the summer transfer window really caught my eye. They’ve brought in the likes of Nicolas Gonzalez, David Hancko, Johnny Cardoso, Alex Baena, and Thiago Almada to really beef up a squad that fell short in the league and the Champions League last season.

These signings may also signal a slight shift in the mentality of Diego Simeone. For as long as I’ve watched Atletico Madrid, their main strength has been their defensive acumen and organisation. However, these signings offer another layer to their game, which they can use to brighten their approach in the final third.

Their start to the season has been quite stop-start with two draws from their opening four matches, but Atletico’s record in the league phase last season should not be overlooked. They won six of their eight matches, scoring 20 goals in the process.


🏁 Ref Watch

Maurizio Mariani

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

20.64

4.00

0.18

0.55

Per game stats from Mariani's 11 career Champions League games.


📊 Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Key Stats

  • Liverpool have won all four of their Premier League matches so far this season.

  • Liverpool topped the league phase of the Champions League last season, winning seven of their eight matches.

  • Liverpool are looking to win the trophy for the seventh time in their history, having last won it in 2019. 

  • Atletico Madrid have made 10 first-team signings over the summer transfer window.

  • Atletico Madrid have managed to win just one of their opening four LaLiga matches this term.

  • Atletico Madrid finished fifth in the league phase last season, winning six of their eight matches. 


What Football Predictions Are Live on Andy's Bet Club?

Keep up with our Accumulator Tips, Gem Bets, and Champions League Football Predictions, as well as Football Betting Tips for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

It's the second consecutive evening of UCL and our live best bets include: Bayern Munich v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips, Arsenal v Athletic Bilbao Tips, as well as Wednesday's Champions League Accumulator Tips and Wednesday's Champions League Match Result & BTTS Predictions.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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