Chelsea v Liverpool

Chelsea host Liverpool in a crucial battle in the race for Champions League qualification. Liverpool secured their second ever Premier League title with a 5-1 win against Tottenham at the weekend, prompting a week of celebration. Chelsea have had a more focused week with the first leg of their semi-final tie against Djurgarden in the Conference League, a trip that was successful with Chelsea running out 4-1 winners. 

Liverpool ran out 2-1 winners in the initial meeting between the sides at Anfield when the gap between the two teams was much shorter than how it ended up playing out. Chelsea have a very difficult run of games to end the season which includes facing up against fellow Champions League chasers Newcastle and Nottingham Forest so it is essential that they pick up some points here against what is likely to be the weakest version of Liverpool following their title celebrations.

⭐ Chelsea v Liverpool Best Bets

Caicedo has been Chelsea’s standout performer this season. He’s featured in almost every game for the Blues in the Premier League this campaign which has seen him play as a holding midfielder and as an inverted fullback in recent games to allow for the introduction of Romeo Lavia to Chelsea’s midfield. 

Caicedo was hauled down three times in Liverpool’s 2-1 win over Chelsea earlier on in the campaign. He contested nine duels in that game with Liverpool going on to commit 12 fouls in total. This is a feature of Liverpool’s play, they press quite high up the pitch which naturally sees plenty of fouls committed on opposition holding midfielders in particular. 

Caicedo has won 54 fouls across his 34 appearances for Chelsea in the Premier League this season (1.62 per 90). Liverpool have already shown that they can force a rise in this average as we saw in the initial league meeting between the sides. Caicedo is excellent in tight spaces and usually finds himself in own individual battles which he usually wins, aided by his brilliant reading of the game to sniff out danger. 

Caicedo is likely to be up against Dominik Szoboszlai who committed a foul in the initial meeting and was shown a yellow card. Szoboszlai is averaging 1.47 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season, in line with the suggestion that Liverpool use their attackers as the first form of defence. He’ll also contest duels against Alexis Mac Allister who is averaging 2.11 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season.

🟢 Chelsea v Liverpool ABC Exclusive Boost

Chelsea to Commit 11+ Fouls, Both Teams to Score & Chelsea GK to Make 3+ Saves on Paddy Power @ 5.0

• Chelsea committed 13 fouls at Anfield in the initial meeting between the sides. It’s not really that Chelsea are particularly aggressive when without the ball but that they are petulant and impatient, reflective of the young nature of the squad. Chelsea are averaging 11.5 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season. 

• BTTS landed in the game at Anfield and has landed in four of Chelsea’s last five games across all competitions. Liverpool have seen BTTS in three of their last five games with the games in which it failed to come in against Leicester and Everton - two of the weakest attacking sides in the league. 

• Liverpool drew three saves from Robert Sanchez in the initial meeting between the sides at Anfield. He’s having to make 3.11 saves per 90 in the Premier League this season. Liverpool are averaging 6.4 shots on target per game in the Premier League this campaign - more than any other side in the division.

👕 Chelsea v Liverpool Predicted XI

🔍 Chelsea v Liverpool Players to Watch

🔴 Mohamed Salah

Liverpool may have wrapped up the Premier League title, but Mohamed Salah will still have his eye on a few personal records following what has been a stellar season, namely the assist record. Salah has registered 46 goal contributions across his 34 Premier League appearances this season (28 goals, 18 assists), making his campaign arguably the best individual season we’ve seen in Premier League history.

He scored against Tottenham in Liverpool’s title-winning victory over the Lilywhites last time out and provided both a goal and assist against Chelsea in the initial meeting between the sides. 

🔵 Nicolas Jackson

Jackson finally hit double digits for the season in the Premier League for goals with his strike from distance against Everton last time out.

He followed this up with a brace against Djurgarden off the bench to give Chelsea a commanding 4-1 lead heading into the second leg at Stamford Bridge. Jackson is like many strikers in that he plays in streaks of form, an interesting statistic about the Chelsea striker is that every time he has registered a goal contribution in a Premier League game, he has followed that up with a goal contribution in the subsequent top flight fixture with the exception of failing to provide a goal contribution against Everton after scoring against Brentford in the busy winter period.

What we can gather from this is that Jackson should be full of confidence here, aided by the urgency of Chelsea needing all three points.

📂 Chelsea v Liverpool Cheat Sheet

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🔥 Chelsea v Liverpool Streaks

These are team selections that have landed in the last 5 Premier League games ↙️

Chelsea 10+ shots (11+ in 4/5)
Chelsea 5+ shots on target 
Chelsea 4+ corners

Liverpool 1+ goals scored
Liverpool 14+ shots (15+ in 4/5)
Liverpool 3+ shots on target (6+ in 4/5)
Liverpool 4+ corners (8+ in 4/5)
Liverpool opponents 1+ cards

🏟️ Chelsea v Liverpool Hit Rates

These are team selections that have landed in the last 5 Premier League games ↙️

Colwill 1+ fouls committed (2+ in 4/5)
Jackson 1+ fouls committed 
Fernandez 1+ fouls won
Jackson 1+ shots
Caicedo 1+ tackles (2+ in 4/5)

Mac Allister 1+ fouls committed 
Diaz 1+ shots
Salah 1+ shots
Mac Allister 1+ tackles

🏁 Chelsea v Liverpool Ref Watch

• Referee - Simon Hooper

• Stats are per 90 and are taken from 2024/25 Premier League games (22 total)

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.