Despite Liverpool’s impressive standing, their defence does allow chances.

All but two of their league hosts have registered three or more shots on target, including in each of the last six. Fulham, meanwhile, average 5.13 shots on target per home game, hitting this line in 12 of 15 at Craven Cottage.

Craven Cottage has quietly been a hotbed for card action, with Fulham’s home matches averaging 4.54 yellows per game.

10 of 15 have seen at least four cards shown. On the road, Liverpool’s games average 4.5 yellows, again with 10 of 15 hitting this mark. Referee Chris Kavanagh - a well known name for card backers - averages 5.11 yellows per game in the Premier League, adding further confidence to this selection.

Jota may be a clinical finisher, but he’s no stranger to rash challenges. Averaging 1.74 fouls per 90, he’s committed at least one foul in nine of his last 10 games, including one in just 11 minutes off the bench in the reverse fixture.

Lukic has resumed his combative style post-suspension, committing two fouls in both games since returning. That extends a broader trend - 2+ fouls in seven of his last 10. Liverpool’s midfield has drawn 12 fouls in their last 3 matches. While he only committed one foul in the reverse fixture, he tallied two in Fulham’s last home clash with the Reds.

This builds on earlier logic. Fulham’s home shot accuracy and Liverpool’s attacking consistency (who have had 3+ shots on target in every league game this season) align perfectly.

Fulham have allowed this many shots on target in 11 of 15 home games, but none of those opponents match Liverpool’s offensive output. Expect both sides to get their looks on goal.

Liverpool enters as rightful favourites, but it’s not just their league position that justifies the price. Fulham, who started February brightly (W5, L1), have since lost three of their last four, including a damaging FA Cup exit.

Liverpool, unbeaten on the road in the league this season, have won three straight league games in London. A win here would make it four - something they haven’t achieved in a single season since 2020/21. In terms of the head-to-head, the Reds have lost just once in their last 15 against Fulham (W10, D4) - that lone defeat came four years ago.

Now playing slightly deeper in an advanced left-midfield role, Díaz continues to torment defenders. He’s drawn 2+ fouls in two of his last four in this position, with an average of 1.35 fouls won per 90.

Fulham’s right-hand side has been their weak point, conceding 18 fouls in their last five matches. Díaz also drew two fouls in the reverse, while playing more centrally.

One of the most active shooters in Arne Slot’s squad, Jota averages 3.07 shots per 90 and has hit this line in four of his last seven starts. Even as a sub in the reverse fixture, he managed two shots in just 11 minutes - and three in this fixture last season, netting in both encounters.