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Liverpool v Luton Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Liverpool v Luton Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Tuesday 20 February, 20243 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Liverpool v Luton

📅
Kick Off: Wednesday 21st February at 19:30
🏆
Competition: Premier League

This Wednesday evening our Premier League bet builder predictions come to you from Anfield as we look at Liverpool v Luton. It's not just this game though, as we also have a range of Premier League acca tips and football tips & predictions on-site from across the globe and in a range of sports, so you can bet smarter no matter what you're into.

Remember to browse our selection of free bet offers and all of the latest bookmaker offers we have on Andy's Bet Club to ensure you're getting the most for your money.

Top of the league Liverpool are hosting Luton at Anfield on Wednesday evening. They will be hoping for a better result than the 1-1 draw last time they faced Luton at Kenilworth Road. The Reds were 1-0 down in that game till the 95th-minute when Luis Diaz grabbed an equaliser in the dying embers. 

A win here for Liverpool would see them move five points clear of second-placed Arsenal in what is one of the closest title races over the last few seasons. The visitors will not make it easy for Liverpool, however, as they showed at the weekend against Manchester United. Luton lost 2-1 but took more corners, and shots, and had the lion's share of possession. 

Liverpool come into this game confident following a convincing performance on Saturday: beating Brentford 4-1 away from home. Despite Diogo Jota and Curtis Jones being forced off with injuries, The Reds will be happy to have Mohamed Salah back in action. The winger returned from his injury in style, bagging a goal and an assist after coming off the bench in West London.

This article aims to break down the key stats and match-ups behind this clash, using data from the Liverpool v Luton Cheat Sheet. If you like any of the selections, why not add them into your Liverpool v Luton Bet Builder?

Liverpool v Luton Cheat Sheet

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This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

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There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets, however, if you're unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find Liverpool v Luton match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off. If you're looking for a new bookmaker check out the best bet builder bookmakers.

🏆 Match stats: Luton to concede a hatful of goals at Anfield

Luton have conceded nine goals over their last three Premier League appearances, and have conceded an average of 1.96 goals per game this season. Unsurprisingly this ranks their defence as the third-worst in the league, just above fellow newly-promoted sides: Burnley and Sheffield United. Liverpool, on the other hand, have one of the strongest attacks in the Premier League, having scored the most goals (59), taken the most shots (472) and shots on target (170). Their most impressive stat however is that they again rank top for expected goals, and are over 5 xG above second place. For context, there is 5 xG between 2nd and 7th place. Furthermore , over all competitions, the Reds have scored 17 goals in their last five outings; an average of 3.4 per match. Despite only managing a draw against Luton in the reverse of this fixture, Liverpool dominated the game, taking a total of 24 shots and generating 2.85 xG. Liverpool are the unsurprising favourites to win this one, and they look interesting to consider in the handicap markets. These require the Reds to win by a certain margin for the bet to win. For example, Liverpool (-1.0) would need them to win by two or more goals – imagine they start the game one goal down.

Predictions:

⚽ Liverpool (-1 handicap) @ 1.53

⚽ Liverpool (-2 handicap) @ 2.40

🎯 Shooting stats: Gakpo to replace key target man up top

Darwin Nunez is predicted to be benched for this match after suffering an injury at the weekend against Brentford. Cody Gakpo looks primed to be his replacement, coming off the bench at half time for Nunez at the weekend to get himself a goal and an assist. Gakpo has been averaging 2.62 shots and 1.09 shots on target so far this season, with defenders often finding it hard to contain his speed and skill. Luton will struggle to keep Gakpo at bay for the full 90 minutes, he even managed two shots against them last November despite coming on in the 66th minute. Another attacker likely to create problems for Luton’s defence is Diaz, who has been on a hot streak for Liverpool recently. In four of his last five starts, Diaz has managed at least one shot on target, notably registering four against Burnley. Given how dominant Liverpool have been up top, and how weak Luton are defensively, he is strong value to find the back of the net again.

Predictions:

⚽ Cody Gakpo to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.30

⚽ Cody Gakpo to have 2+ shots on target @ 2.40

⚽ Cody Gakpo to score anytime @ 2.30

⚽ Luis Diaz to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.40

⚽ Luis Diaz to score anytime @ 2.50

🚩 Corners stats: Liverpool love a corner, especially at Anfield

Liverpool have seen the third-most corners in the Premier League, averaging 6.63 corners for per match. This average jumps significantly to 7.75 corners when looking at just their games played at Anfield. Furthermore, they have conceded an average of just 3 corners per game at home. Luton, on the other hand, have seen an average of 4.27 corners for and 6.18 corners against when playing on the road. Even when playing at home against Liverpool they only managed 4 compared to Liverpool’s seven. In their last away fixture, Luton conceded eight corners against Newcastle. This narrative opens up an interesting narrative in the Corners Handicap market. Liverpool (-4.0) requires Liverpool to take five or more corners than Luton to win, which, given their strong corners record at Anfield, looks likely.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 5.5 Liverpool corners @ 1.91

⚽ Over 6.5 Liverpool corners @ 1.29

⚽ Liverpool (-4 corner handicap) @ 1.57

🛑 Fouls stats: Luton forward with a strong fouling record

Carlton Morris has committed at least one foul in seven of his last eight games in the Premier League, and has an an average of 1.47 fouls per game this season. Interestingly this figure rises when Morris plays on the road to an average 1.87 fouls per match. Morris seems to foul more when playing against tougher opponents. He committed four away at Old Trafford, two at Villa Park, and two when hosting Chelsea and Spurs respectively. In his last outing against Liverpool, Morris committed a foul against Ibrahima Konate. Following Elijah Adebayo’s injury at the weekend, it looks likely Morris will play the full 90 here, increasing the chance of him fouling.

Predictions:

⚽ Carlton Morris to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.20

⚽ Carlton Morris to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.0

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