Luton have conceded nine goals over their last three Premier League appearances, and have conceded an average of 1.96 goals per game this season. Unsurprisingly this ranks their defence as the third-worst in the league, just above fellow newly-promoted sides: Burnley and Sheffield United.

Liverpool, on the other hand, have one of the strongest attacks in the Premier League, having scored the most goals (59), taken the most shots (472) and shots on target (170). Their most impressive stat however is that they again rank top for expected goals, and are over 5 xG above second place. For context, there is 5 xG between 2nd and 7th place.

Furthermore , over all competitions, the Reds have scored 17 goals in their last five outings; an average of 3.4 per match. Despite only managing a draw against Luton in the reverse of this fixture, Liverpool dominated the game, taking a total of 24 shots and generating 2.85 xG.

Liverpool are the unsurprising favourites to win this one, and they look interesting to consider in the handicap markets. These require the Reds to win by a certain margin for the bet to win. For example, Liverpool (-1.0) would need them to win by two or more goals – imagine they start the game one goal down.

Darwin Nunez is predicted to be benched for this match after suffering an injury at the weekend against Brentford. Cody Gakpo looks primed to be his replacement, coming off the bench at half time for Nunez at the weekend to get himself a goal and an assist.

Gakpo has been averaging 2.62 shots and 1.09 shots on target so far this season, with defenders often finding it hard to contain his speed and skill. Luton will struggle to keep Gakpo at bay for the full 90 minutes, he even managed two shots against them last November despite coming on in the 66th minute.

Another attacker likely to create problems for Luton’s defence is Diaz, who has been on a hot streak for Liverpool recently. In four of his last five starts, Diaz has managed at least one shot on target, notably registering four against Burnley. Given how dominant Liverpool have been up top, and how weak Luton are defensively, he is strong value to find the back of the net again.

Liverpool have seen the third-most corners in the Premier League, averaging 6.63 corners for per match. This average jumps significantly to 7.75 corners when looking at just their games played at Anfield. Furthermore, they have conceded an average of just 3 corners per game at home.

Luton, on the other hand, have seen an average of 4.27 corners for and 6.18 corners against when playing on the road. Even when playing at home against Liverpool they only managed 4 compared to Liverpool’s seven. In their last away fixture, Luton conceded eight corners against Newcastle.

This narrative opens up an interesting narrative in the Corners Handicap market. Liverpool (-4.0) requires Liverpool to take five or more corners than Luton to win, which, given their strong corners record at Anfield, looks likely.

Carlton Morris has committed at least one foul in seven of his last eight games in the Premier League, and has an an average of 1.47 fouls per game this season. Interestingly this figure rises when Morris plays on the road to an average 1.87 fouls per match.

Morris seems to foul more when playing against tougher opponents. He committed four away at Old Trafford, two at Villa Park, and two when hosting Chelsea and Spurs respectively. In his last outing against Liverpool, Morris committed a foul against Ibrahima Konate. Following Elijah Adebayo’s injury at the weekend, it looks likely Morris will play the full 90 here, increasing the chance of him fouling.