💎 Gem Bet: Wharton 1+ Foul Committed @ 1.53 (bet365)

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Wharton committed 12 fouls across his 16 starts for Crystal Palace last season (0.81 per 90) but there is reason to believe that this rate will increase in this Community Shield clash against Liverpool. 

Palace play with a 3-4-3 shape which leaves Wharton alongside just one other partner in the middle of the park which can leave Palace a little vulnerable to overloads in the middle of the park if the front three aren’t switched on to their roles in protecting the midfield. 

Liverpool have added Wirtz to an already stacked midfield set up which looks really promising when backing Wharton to commit a foul here:

Ryan Gravenberch: 1.48 fouls won p/90 (24/25 PL)
Alexis Mac Allister: 1.38 fouls won p/90 (24/25 PL)
Florian Wirtz: 1.49 fouls won p/90 (24/25 Bundesliga)

Another angle which makes this selection promising is the Sub On Play On feature with Bet365 which keeps this bet alive should Wharton be taken off early. This was the exact situation when Liverpool faced Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park in the early stages of last season and recorded a 1-0 win, Wharton didn’t commit a foul in his 60 minutes on the pitch but his replacement in Will Hughes came on to commit two fouls and pick up a yellow card. 

Palace have a few players that look promising for this scenario:

Daichi Kamada: 1.62 fouls committed p/90 (24/25 PL)
Will Hughes: 2.76 fouls committed p/90 (24/25 PL)
Jefferson Lerma: 1.38 fouls committed p/90 (24/25 PL)

We can expect Wharton and Palace to struggle at times with the dominance and control that Liverpool have in the middle of the park which should spark a slight rise in Wharton’s foul average from last season. 

There is real value with this bet when backing with bet365, the exact same selection is priced as low as 1.17 with other comparable bookmakers.