In this article…
Luton v Liverpool
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Kick Off: Sunday 5th November at 16:30
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
A win for Bournemouth last weekend saw Luton fall back into the drop zone for the first time since late September. The Hatters have been much better than many predicted, but still face an uphill struggle to retain their Premier League status.
However, a visit from Liverpool is hardly likely to provide any much-needed points to aid Rob Edwards’ side in their bid for survival.
Jurgen Klopp’s Reds have been quietly going through the gears as the season has progressed, their points tally hovering just below the leaders, ensuring that their strong form has gone mostly unnoticed.
They have lost just once all season, in controversial fashion away at Tottenham, and have won every other game besides two away draws at Chelsea and Brighton. Anything other than three points here would be a monumental shock for a side that has now won five of their last six in all competitions and is unbeaten since September.
Despite the result looking fairly assured already, there are still some great angles for a bet builder in this one, with plenty of under-the-radar options on offer to help you secure a winner on this Sunday afternoon fixture.
We’ve delved into the details so you don’t have to and if any of our tips take your fancy, why not add them to your Luton v Liverpool bet builder?
Luton v Liverpool Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
You can find Luton v Liverpool stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
🟠 Luton stats: Foul-happy Hatters showing no signs of slowing down
Luton have been prone to committing fouls this season, racking up at least 10 fouls in 9/10 Premier League games. They have committed 12+ fouls in 6/10, including against Tottenham, Brighton and Chelsea, arguably the toughest opponents the Hatters have faced.
They have averaged 11.9 fouls per game this season, the fourth-highest of any side in the division, behind only Wolves, Brighton and Bournemouth.
Liverpool, meanwhile, draw 10.6 fouls per game, having drawn 10 or more in six of their 10 Premier League games, and 12 or more in five of their 10 matches so far this season. This is likely to be higher against Luton, with Liverpool almost certain to dominate possession.
Furthermore, the referee for this one is Andy Madley, which should be music to the ears of anyone looking to bet on this game. Madley has shown a ridiculous number of cards in the Premier League this season and has whistled for 27 fouls per game on average. The vast majority of these fouls are likely to be given against Luton, so the fouls market is a great place to start here.
Prediction: Luton to commit 10+ fouls @ 1.33
Prediction: Luton to commit 12+ fouls @ 1.91
🟨 Liverpool stats: Cards on the way once again
With Madley refereeing this one, any bet builders really should be looking into the cards markets.
Liverpool have been surprisingly ill-disciplined this season, already racking up four red cards, and averaging two cards per game. They have seen two or more cards in seven of their 10 league games in 2023/24, and in all of their five away fixtures so far, at odds of 1.5, backing this streak to continue is a solid option.
This is partially due to their high line necessitating players occasionally taking a booking to prevent attacks, and also down to combative players throughout the side who are always looking to aggressively win the ball.
Luton have also seen high card numbers, so backing total cards could be a solid option. At 1.29, over 3.5 cards could be a nice little odds booster, with this selection landing in 7/10 Liverpool games and six out of 10 Luton games so far this season.
Prediction: Over 1.5 Liverpool cards @ 1.50
Prediction: Over 3.5 cards @ 1.29
🎯 Luton offensive stats: Morris the only hope?
Luton have, of course, struggled going forward this season, with an attacking unit that may not even rank the best amongst the top sides in the second tier, but Carlton Morris has proved himself to be a handful.
Morris has had two or more shots in eight of his 10 Premier League appearances and has generally seen more success in the games you would anticipate being Luton’s toughest.
Rob Edwards’ side have seen success playing on the break and from getting crosses into the box. Morris is excellent in the air and has proven to be adept at latching onto loose balls in the area after set pieces. Liverpool meanwhile have conceded shots from dead ball situations in all but one of their 10 games so far.
Chances are likely to be limited for Luton here, but Morris is the man they will most likely fall to when they do come.
He has averaged two shots per game so far this season, and managed three shots against Spurs and Brighton, two of the tougher tests his side have faced this season. Backing Morris to have three shots here could be an excellent value play, with Luton’s number nine having done so on six occasions already in the league.
Prediction: Carlton Morris to have 2+ shots @ 1.40
Prediction: Carlton Morris to have 3+ shots @ 2.40
🎯 Liverpool offensive stats: Salah and Jota the danger men
Mo Salah is once again in scintillating form, having found the net or assisted a teammate in nine of his 10 Premier League games.
The only exception was against Spurs, in which Liverpool were down to 10 for the majority of the game, and Salah was taken off after 73 minutes. Against Luton, where Liverpool should be putting at least a couple of goals past Thomas Kaminski, Salah will surely make it a goal or an assist in 10/11.
At 1.50, he is still priced fairly generously considering his exceptional form and the likelihood of goals in this one, with over 2.5 goals being priced as low as 1.30.
Another player to keep in mind is Diogo Jota. The Portuguese forward has had at least one shot on target in three of his last five starts and has notched three shots on target in his last two league games.
Jota also took four and three shots in total in these two games respectively, and averages 3.54 shots per 90 for the season; with Liverpool likely to dominate, he should be taking plenty of shots again here.
Jota to take two shots at 1.13 is low odds but could be a nice odds booster to round off a lower odds bet builder. Alternatively, Jota to have four shots at 2.25 might be a nice option, having hit this line in dominant showings against Everton and Bournemouth already this season.
We would advise against the three shots line however, sitting at 1.44, the risk of taking the higher line against two shots at 1.33 simply is not worth it.
Prediction: Mo Salah to score or assist @ 1.50
Prediction: Diogo Jota to have 2+ shots @ 1.13
Prediction: Diogo Jota to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.33
🛑 Luton defensive stats: Not-so-Marvelous Nakamba
As mentioned above, Andy Madley is right up there for cards amongst Premier League referees. His 5.86 cards per game across seven games this season is absolutely huge.
Marvelous Nakamba could well be in trouble as a result, the combative Zimbabwean midfielder snaps into tackles all across the pitch. Madley awards more fouls in a game than the total number of clean tackles, meaning fouls look to be near certain for Nakamba.
He has committed a foul in every game he has played in this season, yet is still priced at 1.17, making this line an appealing odds booster. He has committed two or more fouls in nine of his 11 starts in all competitions and will spend most, if not all, of the game on the pitch, having played the full 90 minutes in eight of his nine starts.
Nakamba is also a prime candidate for a card, with Madley being card-happy, and the Zimbabwean committing a high number of fouls per game. If you are looking to back someone to receive a card, he looks the best bet, at 2.75.
Prediction: Marvelous Nakamba to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.17
Prediction: Marvelous Nakamba to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.83
Prediction: Marvelous Nakamba to be shown a card @ 2.75
🛑 Liverpool defensive stats: Reds look to spread their fouls throughout the side
The Liverpool fouls market could be a fruitful one for a bet builder, with plenty of candidates available.
Alexis Mac Allister looks a strong shout, with the Argentinian midfielder committing 2.16 fouls per game, and picking up four cards already this season. He has committed a foul in every Premier League game this season, notching two or more in six of 10.
He will be up against Ogbene, who has drawn more fouls than any other Luton player likely to start the game, at 1.7 per 90.
Diogo Jota is not just a good bet in the shots market, he looks good for fouls too. The Portuguese commits 2.29 per game, more than Mac Allister, and has committed a foul in every game in which he has played 60+ minutes this season. Issa Kabore is the opponent he will be up against, the Burkinabe full-back has drawn a foul per game on average.
Finally, if Ryan Gravenberch starts, he may also be a solid option. He has committed three fouls in his last three Premier League games, committing two in 45 minutes against Brighton and one in under an hour against Forest. It was only against Everton in which he did not commit a foul, and the early red card saw foul numbers deflated for both sides, so we should not read much into that game.
Gravenberch will also be in and around Ogbene, and the Dutchman looks a nice value option to commit at least one foul.
Prediction: Alexis Mac Allister to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.14
Prediction: Alexis Mac Allister to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.73
Prediction: Diogo Jota to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.17
Prediction: Ryan Gravenberch to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.17
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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