Since his signing from Marseille in the summer, Boubacar Kamara has been an ever present in the Aston Villa midfield, averaging 80 minutes per game. Averaging a shot every 4 games, Kamara is hardly the goal threatening, attacking midfielder. He’s the anchor, alongside Douglas Luiz who free up the front 2 and pair of wingers.

Kamara is a tenacious midfielder, averaging 4.41 interceptions per game this season with 8.3 defensive duels. Although he is partial to a tackle, they can often be mistimed, which leads to 1.58 fouls per game. Today, he will line up against City’s midfield 3 which could cause an overload, alongside City operating with inverted wing backs such as Rico Lewis. In recent performances, Jack Grealish has also tended to go on long runs inside, driving into the space to ignite the spark City have been missing, suffering 13 fouls in his last 3 games. Of his 6 fouls drawn at Spurs, only 2 were from right back Emerson as he drove into the pockets of space in the middle.

Something hasn’t quite been clicking for City recently, but I fancy that to change today. There is plenty of controversy concerning the club off the pitch due to these investigations and charges. It’s safe to say that the 1-0 defeat, yet again, at Spurs’ new stadium did little to lift spirits around the club as their attack was neutralised completely. A side averaging near 16 shots over the past 12 months, City still managed 14 but couldn’t get near the net with the likes of Erling Haaland failing to register a touch in the opposition box.

Back in front of their home crowd, City have started to show signs of getting over their hump. A 2-1 defeat to Brentford before the world cup was followed by a draw to relegation threatened Everton and a slow start against Spurs which saw them trail 2-0. Since then City have scored 7 goals in 3 halves with an xG of almost 5.

Although I can easily see City landing this selection themselves, it’s worth speaking about Villa who were involved in a 6 goal fixture last weekend against Leicester. Villa have scored 3 against United and 2 more against Brighton, United and Spurs this season, all clubs around City in the table. Against Arsenal they shared 3 goals in a game that featured 4.2 xG. Traditionally, Unai Emery sides are a tough nut to crack but Emery has played more expansively than ever with both teams scoring in every game bar 2 this year.

Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 91% of City home games this season, compared to 40% on the road and I wouldn’t bet against them running away with this one today.

Villa are quite a card happy team, with the majority of these coming on the road, especially this season. According to my cheat sheet, Villa average 2.14 cards per game this season, however that rises to 2.54 per game on their travels in all competitions. In fact they haven’t had an away game all season without receiving a card and are currently on a run of 26 cards in their last 9 and 12 in their last 3 away games. At home, Villa average just 1.18 cards per game, yet still managed to register two against City last time courtesy of both full backs, Matty Cash and Lucas Digne.

Villa see 52% of the ball at home and this number drops to under 50% on the road, meaning they have less of the ball and therefore more opportunity to commit fouls. Best exemplified on the final day of last season, in this exact fixture, where Villa had 27% possession and committed 11 fouls for 2 cards. Villa don’t shy away from cards with the likes of McGinn, Mings and Ramsey all picking up 4 this season. Add in matchups such as Grealish, who draws 3.45 fouls per game and Mahrez who draws 1.7 and there will be plenty of opportunity for Villa cards.

To round off this bet builder, I am tipping Riyad Mahrez to contribute to one of the three goals selected before. Mahrez is having a fine season and has started to step it up a notch recently with 8 goals contributions in his last 8 games. A direct player, Mahrez is known to drive straight at his opposing number, using his trickery to leave them in his wake.

Today, he should line up against Alex Moreno. The Spaniard was brought in from the La Liga and has been successful in his first three starts with 6 shots and over 4 dribbles per game. Defensively there have to be questions asked. Moreno allowed Bamford to peel away from him for Leeds’ goal and he failed to clear away a regulation through ball to allow Praet to score for Leicester. Mahrez and City are a different level to what he has seen in the Premier League and he should have the better of the newbie with ease.