Despite Middlesbrough’s position in the play-offs, one could easily make the case for this being a bigger match for Norwich City. Having revitalised their hopes to make it into the play-offs themselves with a great away win at Ewood Park on Good Friday, they conceded the advantage straight back with a disappointing 0-0 draw with Rotherham.

In that match, Norwich took over 20 shots, but only 4 hit the target. This was one of those matches in which we have become familiar where the away side sets up with strength in the centre of defence and gets a block on everything. Out of those 21 shots, 10 were blocked. It is doubtful that Norwich will face the same sort of test here and, indeed, will be more likely to have the space to play on the break a little bit more, which is what worked for them at Blackburn.

Having said that, the defensive injuries that Norwich carry into this match are a big concern. Rotherham weren’t really able to test the makeshift back line but Middlesbrough most certainly will. Cameron Archer is likely to come back into the team for this one and with his threat in behind, that could create more space for Chuba Akpom in the #10 role. Ben Gibson, Grant Hanley, and Kenny McLean, are all absent for most, if not all, of the run-in, which means that Liam Gibbs is being asked to do some heavy lifting in midfield and Jacob Lungi Sorensen is being asked to cover in central defence. It’s not a disaster, but neither is it ideal, especially against one of the best attacks in the league.

Then, of course, we have to consider the strength of Middlesbrough at home. Michael Carrick’s side have been ridiculously impressive at the Riverside. Their aura of invincibility at home may have been dented somewhat after a fairly fortunate draw with Stoke and then a defeat to champions-elect Burnley last time out, but those are probably two of the best teams in the league at this point. Sandwiched in between those games was a 4-0 mauling of Preston, which doesn’t happen to Ryan Lowe’s team, and considering the general form of Preston at the moment, that is a very impressive result.

Carrick employed a little bit of rotation last time out at Bristol City and it didn’t particularly work very well. In an attempt to really lock up a play-off position, I think that they will revert to a first-choice lineup here. In which case I quite like their price to win the match at just short of even money, and it will form the foundation of our bet builder here.

The referee for this encounter is Josh Smith. Smith averages 4.15 yellows per Championship match over a 25-match sample size, so pretty reliable. However, the price of over 3.5 cards is 1.50 and for me, that is too short to add in here. Especially when considering that Smith’s last two matches have gone under that line.

However, Smith also gives 23 fouls per match, which is above average. There will be a good atmosphere at a packed-out Riverside on Friday night and whilst this isn’t a season-defining match for Middlesbrough, they will probably come in the post-season, they will still be keen to win this one and will be highly competitive.

There is a good chance that Onel Hernandez starts on the left for Norwich here. In combination with the forward-thinking left-back Sam McCallum, there will be some pressure on Middlesbrough right-back Tommy Smith.

Smith has made that position his own over Isaiah Jones and generally plays the entire game, giving him the maximum amount of chance to commit a foul. He is third on the list of Middlesbrough players giving fouls away in the last ten matches, with 13 fouls in 10 matches.

Of slightly more interest though are the struggles Smith faced against Burnley. In this match against Anass Zaroury and Ian Maatsen Smith conceded three fouls early in the match. His price to concede just one foul here is tempting enough to add to the bet builder.

The final two recommendations for the bet builder both come in the shots market.

Middlesbrough should dominate the shot count here. Over the last 12 home matches this season Boro are averaging 14 shots to their opponents’ 9 shots. Therefore it makes sense to make a Middlesbrough selection in the player shots markets.

Chuba Akpom is the obvious player to turn to here. As well as being the outstanding Championship goalscorer, he is also way up there for the number of shots taken in the league this season. He tops Middlesbrough’s charts by some distance, and, similarly to Tommy Smith, he gets the most number of minutes in an area of the pitch where substitutions and rotations often occur.

Akpom averages 2.81 shots per 90 across the whole season. He’s had at least one shot in every match since Millwall away on 8th October. In the 28 matches since then, 24 of them have seen Akpom shoot twice or more, 86% of the time, and that includes some substitute appearances.

In a match in which we expect Middlesbrough to win, and to dominate the shot count, even though it is a fairly short price, I like the option of adding in Chuba Akpom to take at least two shots in this match. He is Boro’s penalty taker as well, which, though unlikely, gives us a possibility of picking up an easy shot there too.

The other shots angle is a price play on Norwich’s Gabriel Sara. The Brazilian midfielder let fly four times in the Rotherham match, twice from outside the box, once from inside the box and once from a free-kick.

It is the last angle that I like here. Without Marcelino Nunez in the side, it seems as though Sara will get a shot at at least one free kick. Given his propensity to shoot outside the box, and the fact that he scored recently against Blackburn, David Wagner is probably going to allow Sara some leeway to take some efforts.

The balance of the team suggests that Sara will get some forward licence as well. With Liam Gibbs holding the fort in midfield, it will be Sara supporting the attacks. There is a chance that Isaac Hayden may play alongside Gibbs as well for this match, meaning that Sara could play in the line behind the centre forward, either Sargent, Pukki, or Idah.

We are getting odds against for Sara to take two or more shots here. If he gets on a direct free kick then that could mean only one more from open play. I think this price could be value and we will complete our builder with this.