It is fair to say that this match has more implications for the home side than it does for the Blues. With three points here the Lions will go a big step towards securing a playoff berth in the second tier for the first time since 2002 under Mark McGhee.

Tom Bradshaw and Zian Flemming re-discovered their scoring boots just in time for the last match against Preston. The Lions had continued to create a decent number of chances, all that had been missing was the finishing touches.

Birmingham’s efforts over the last few weeks will have been pleasing in some way to John Eustace. Despite being practically safe from relegation for a couple of weeks by now, and never really in with a play-off shot, the temptation would’ve been there to be playing some ‘beachy’ football. However, the effort and application of the players has been really good, and the youngsters in the team have provided great energy.

It is a blow for Blues that George Hall has suffered an injury that’ll keep him out for the remainder of the season. The teenage Academy product was beginning to blossom into an excellent tool for Eustace. It is possible that another Academy product, Jobe Bellingham, could be brought in to replace Hall, but Bellingham Jr. isn’t quite at the same level of development as Hall.

I wouldn’t have enough faith in either side to back them to win at the prices. However, I am interested in the goal line. I can understand why the goal expectancy is so low here. Neither team has a recent record of banging the goals in, but the line is such that over 1.5 goals is a backable price to add into the bet builder.

This line has been beaten seven times out of ten in Millwall home matches and nine out of ten in Birmingham away matches. In addition, there has been no Birmingham away game in the last ten that has produced an xG total under 1, and eight out of ten have produced an xG total over 2.

I also think that both sides carry genuine goal threats. Bradshaw and Flemming are both over 10 goals for Millwall, plus their set pieces are always a threat. Birmingham’s threats are perhaps less obvious, but between Tahith Chong, Reda Khadra, Hannibal, and Lukas Jutkiewicz, and their own set pieces, there are a few routes to goal.

The referee for this match is Dean Whitestone. Whitestone is one of the more cautious referees with the cards, he averages 3 yellows per match in the Championship and only around 18 fouls per match so he is one to let things go a little bit more than the average Championship referees.

Millwall rank 19th in the league in terms of yellow cards earned and whilst Birmingham are 5th for yellows it is interesting to note that neither side have had a man sent off so far this season. Stakes are fairly high for Millwall here, but it is not make or break at this stage and there is nothing riding on it at all for Birmingham so I cannot imagine tensions being close to boiling point.

The card expectation line feels a touch too high here but I am not going for a risky line to add to the builder. The under 4.5 card line looks a good bet, Whitestone has only gone over this line twice in the season so far, that is twice in 23 matches, less than ten percent of his matches. When he has refereed these sides before he has averaged one yellow per team per match.

The Juke looks a good bet to start this match because of the fact that George Hall is definitely out and removing Juke as well would mean a full-scale change of forward players. The only concern is a slight knock that the 34-year-old took at Sunderland last week.

However, if he does start, then his foul line is a knocking bet. Jutkiewicz has been a regular starter for the Blues after forcing his way into the team, helped by injuries to Troy Deeney, and he has often played 90 minutes as well. In his last nine matches his foul count reads (most recent first) 3, 4, 1, 0, 2, 3, 2, 5, 4.

The big Blues forward is a 2/7 shot to have one foul, which seems generous, but I think that I prefer to try the 2 or more foul line which would’ve collected 7 times in his last 9 matches. The referee may be a fairly lenient one, but the battle between Jutkiewicz and Jake Cooper is surely bound to result in fouls being given on both sides.

Another fouls angle that looks to be overpriced is the one on the American loanee from Arsenal, Auston Trusty. Trusty has played more minutes than almost anyone in the league this season so we can be very confident that he will get the amount of time required to maximise the potential of him causing a foul.

His foul count has gone up since his switch to left-back. He was a regular central defender in a 3-man defence but at the moment he is playing as a full back and picking up more fouls as a result, something which doesn’t seem to be factored into his price at the moment, which is what makes this a value bet.

Trusty has played eight matches as a left-back and his foul count reads 2, 1, 1, 0, 3, 1,1, 2. So making a foul in seven of eight matches and averaging over a foul per match. This makes the 1.4 available for one or more fouls in this match a must-add to the bet builder.

Just in case any more evidence is required, Trusty’s direct opponent is likely to be Danny McNamara, who is Millwall’s 2nd most fouled player over the last ten matches.