The final set of matches in another bunch of UEFA Nations League groups take place on Monday evening and our accumulator begins in Sofia where Bulgaria and Belarus battle it out in a match with consequence.

These two sides meet with second spot in the group and a promotion play-off that comes with it on the line. Bulgaria only need a draw to secure that but a win could yet see them automatically promoted.

The big problem that both of these sides have is scoring goals. They have only registered two goals in their five matches each in this competition this term and it is hard to see anything changing in that regard here.

It isn’t like they are conceding many either. With the exception of when Bulgaria caught Northern Ireland on a bad night, the home side have kept four clean sheets in the other games in this group while Belarus have only leaked three goals in five games and two of those were in Belfast on Friday, one of which was a penalty.

In what the game state is likely to dictate will be a tight game it makes sense to kick the acca off with under 2.5 goals.

At the time of writing it is unclear exactly what is on the line for Kosovo when they host Lithuania on Monday night due to the abandonment of their match with Romania, the outcome of which hasn’t been determined at the time of writing.

One thing we do know though is Kosovo are guaranteed a promotion play-off regardless of the outcome of the Romania match and they will want to go into that in decent shape.

One of the reasons why they have that play-off in the bag was a 2-1 win in Lithuania earlier in the competition and given that the Lithuanians have lost all five matches in the group, including both of their meetings with an average Cyprus side, we should be looking at a Kosovo win here.

While the game with Romania was 0-0 when it was abandoned, Kosovo had dominated it, winning the shot count 17-4 and the xG battle 1.09-0.20 according to Fotmob stats.

That is against a much better Romania side than this Lithuania one so a repeat of that showing should see Kosovo round out the group with a win.

We remain in League C for the third leg of the accumulator where Northern Ireland will look to wrap up a return to the second tier when they travel to Luxembourg who now know they will finish bottom of their group.

Luxembourg are currently in line for a relegation play-off which they will be keen to win but they might have a tricky night ahead of them here because Northern Ireland are beginning to click again.

They have won their last two matches 5-0 and 2-0 against higher-ranked teams in the group and were 2-0 winners in the reverse meeting between these two.

Luxembourg are yet to win a match in the group and have only scored one goal in their five matches. They have lost both of their games at home in the section as well so these two teams look to be going the other way to each other.

It is fair to assume that Northern Ireland will be too good here but for accumulator purposes, it might be wise to play a little safer given that a point secures promotion for the visitors.

Moving into the top flight, a key match between Serbia and Denmark on Monday evening will determine who claims the second quarter-final spot from the group.

Serbia go into the evening knowing that only a win will extend their campaign from a chance of winning the tournament point of view. Anything else will see them descending into a relegation play-off.

Denmark start out with the safety net of a draw being good enough to put them into the quarter-final and only a loss will see them battling to avoid relegation and those scenarios could make for a tense and nervy affair.

The reverse meeting between the two finished 2-0 to Denmark while their meeting at Euro 2024 ended 0-0 so there is a recent history of low-scoring encounters between the two and with what is at stake it would be a surprise were this one not to follow that pattern.

Denmark matches in this group are averaging 2.4 goals per game while Serbia ones average 1.8 per match. Add in the high stakes here and under 2.5 looks like a safe play.

We stay in the same group for what is a dead rubber between the European champions Spain and a Switzerland side who were expected to be a lot more competitive in this section than they have been.

Spain have already secured their quarter-final spot as group winners but there is nothing to suggest that they can’t go out on a high. In their win over Denmark on Friday night they began with the likes of Fabian Ruiz, Alvaro Morata, Nico Williams, and Pedri all on the bench and they could all come in from the start here.

Switzerland have failed to win any of their five matches and now on paper face the toughest game knowing that whatever happens, they will be playing tier-two football the next time this competition comes around.

They will also be without Breel Embolo here as he has picked up too many yellow cards so that is going to impact the attacking output of the Swiss.

Spain are a confident side with a winning mentality and while the job is done in this group they can be expected to finish up with a win.

It could be a historic night for San Marino on Monday evening when they chase a promotion spot to the third tier for the first time in their history.

They head to Liechtenstein, a side they have already beaten in this group, knowing that a win in the match will send them up to League C and pull off their greatest success.

Liechtenstein will be out to avoid being the only team to have a double done over them by San Marino in a single campaign and with home advantage will at least fancy their chances of successfully achieving that.
Much like when San Marino were in action on Friday evening, this has the feel of an under 2.5 goals game about it.

Liechtenstein have only scored four goals in their last 11 outings and were kept scoreless in the reverse meeting while San Marino matches at this level rarely go over 2.5 and with it being important for the visitors not to lose here else they will lose their promotion play-off chance, this could be another typically tight bottom tier match.

Finish the acca off with another under 2.5 goals pick.