With the crammed schedule in the Premier League following Qatar and the FA Cup, we can expect rotation on both sides tonight which should break up the Newcastle back line which has been so formidable. Trippier, Botman and Pope have all excelled, supported by Schar and Dan Burn as Eddie Howe has built the best back line in the top flight by some way. However, rotation against Sheffield Wednesday saw them concede twice and Tranmere also managed to notch up a goal against a rotated back line. Although I don’t expect mass rotation from Howe, the likes of Daka should be able to capitalise with his pace if Lascelles and Manquillo see plenty of minutes.

Leicester have been diabolical defensively this season with 31 league goals shipped in 18 games, but they have plenty of firepower going forward even without James Maddison. Averaging 2.06 goals on the road compared to 1.63 against, the Foxes don’t go into their shell and sit in for a point on their travels. We could likely see Vardy rested on a short turnaround, but the same back line could be used who have conceded. Leicester put 4 past Forest’s 4-3-3 and drew 2-2 with Brentford playing the same system. They failed to score against Newcastle on Boxing day, but I like their chances today.

Zambian speedster Patson Daka cost £23 million from Salzburg and he has slightly underwhelmed given the price tag despite being the all-time leading scorer in Europe for Leicester. With 8 PL goals and just 3 this season, Leicester fans have expected more output from their number 20.

Although his actual goal scoring numbers may be underwhelming, Daka is great value for bet builders in terms of shooting. In his time in England, Daka has averaged 1.88 shots per 90 on the road with 61% hitting the target, just above 1 per game. Per the above Cheat Sheet, he also averages 1.41 SOT per 90 and his pace should be too much for Lascelles, Botman or any centre half pairing Howe deploys. Likewise, where full backs tuck in and cover, Dan Burn and Trippier, or Manquillo and Lewis, shouldn’t be able to contain him even if he doesn’t put one past Pope.

The fixture just two weeks ago had 10 corners, and under 10.5 corners tempted me today. However, it’s hard to ignore Newcastle’s home corner stats and therefore I’m taking Leicester’s under on corners instead which at 3.5 is well priced just shy of evens.

The teams both had 5 corners two weeks ago but Leicester averaged 4.33 corners at home compared to 3.2 away. They also average 6.67 on the road which has put me off the total for corners combined with Newcastle averaging 7.89 at home. The highest market for Newcastle corners is 5.5 which I recommend the over however Leicester’s under is better priced.

Corners are hard to come by for away sides at St James Park due to Newcastle’s block which allows less passes to the final third than the league average, thus limiting the chance for opposing midfielders to distribute the ball to the wingers, one of the most likely ways to win corners. Chelsea averaged 5 away corners and had just 3 at St James Park while the likes of Aston Villa averaging 4.2 failed to even win one. I like Leicester to have under 3.5, a safer bet is under 4.5, but the research is there for 3 or less.