Second in the league in passing touchdowns, Josh Allen has notched up 35 this season and should have at least two more today. This isn’t just a form based stat as well, Allen had 37 Passing TD’s in 2020 and 36 in 2021, showing how good he has been since his breakout season.

Allen’s story is amazing. Given no D1 college offers out of high school, Allen emailed each college just attempting to get a trial, knowing he could defy the critics. Wyoming took a chance on him and turned him into the 7^th overall pick who transformed Buffalo’s franchise. A dual-threat QB, Allen holds the record for most rushing TD’s by a QB in his first 50 starts while also having a cannon of a right arm.

The 2021 Playoffs set Allen apart from any other quarterback at the time. His postseason passer rating of 149.0 was the highest ever as he threw for 9 touchdown for 637 yards and a further 134 yards rushing. In this round against the Patriots (a divisional game) Allen had more touchdowns than incompletions with 5 Passing TD’s. The Bills effectively lost last year on a coin toss, and he will be seething for revenge against the Chiefs later this year. Allen has also hit this line 10/10 times against Miami.

This is an incredible line, as Tyreek Hill’s receiving yard line sits at 61.5. Drop that down to 50+ at odds of 1.50 and that is exceptional value for our next leg. Nicknamed the Cheetah, Hill has unique speed and an incredible change of pace which turns any offence into a dynamic one.

Traded from the Chiefs at the start of the season, for a first, second, two fourths, and sixth round pick, Tyreek became the highest paid wide receiver in the NFL and ignited this Dolphins offence. Forming a 1-2 punch with Jaylen Waddle, the pair of wide receivers allowed Tua Tagovailoa to have a career year leading to the Dolphins reaching the playoffs.

Hill has had 1,710 receiving yards this season on 119 receptions at an average of 14.4 per reception. Hill’s explosive speed means he gains plenty of yards after the catch, meaning rookie Skylar Thompson will lean on him heavily to make plays happen. It’s arguably the only way the Dolphins have a chance. The Bills held him to 33 yards early in the season but allowed 9 receptions a month ago for 69 yards. Hill has only gone under 50 yards 4 times this season. Expect coach Mike McDaniel to get him far more involved than last week.

After an underwhelming season after his 2021, Dawson Knox is finally hitting a purple patch of form in the past 4 weeks with a touchdown in each game and I’m backing him to keep the good times coming. The Jets, Bears, Patriots and Dolphins have all given up scores to Knox in recent weeks with the latter allowing 98 yards on 6 receptions too.

Interestingly, the Bills have lost 3 games and Knox has scored in none of them. When they win, he has a chance to get into the endzone. Usually the Bills win as a result of their offence with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Josh Allen to account for. Teams have to adapt to cover Allen’s rushes and the main two wideouts for Buffalo, leaving Knox with a great matchup over the middle.

Miami are one of the worst teams at covering tight ends in the league. Their defence should tire more than normal as well, spending more time on the field getting diced up by Allen and co. The Dolphins give up the 4th most TD’s to TE’s and gave up 2 to Bills TE’s last time. Allen should find Knox wide open for 6 at some points in this encounter.

Yes, this is a big points spread to cover but there is such a difference between these sides that I fancy the Bills to cover a 2 TD spread and then some. With Tua possibly available this game line was 9.5 and has only gone up 4 points with a rookie who posted 11 points last week starting at QB.

The Dolphins were having a fine season and were 8-3. Then they faced the 49ers which derailed their season completely, going on a 5 game losing streak. Defensively, they have conceded 33, 23, 32, 26 and 23 points which shows that without defensive injuries it’s tough to contain another offence when they constantly have the ball. Buffalo had 446 yards and 71 plays when they had 32 points against Miami 4 weeks ago.

Buffalo also then put 35 points on the Bears and Patriots to close out the season after the Miami game. From top to bottom their roster is incredible and one of the most complete in the AFC and NFL as a whole. They start fast so I’d be tempted by the Bills 1st half -7 but I fancy them to cover the spread over 4 quarters.