Outside of injury, we can be very confident that Nicolas Jackson will play the bulk of minutes in these 3 games.

There is a 5-day gap between each of them, and Jackson has started 16 of Chelsea’s 17 Premier League matches this season.

We have factored potential squad rotation into this bet, and see 22/1 as excellent value even if the Senegal international only plays 2 of the 3 matches.

Jackson has scored 9 league goals from 8.51 xG, this suggests that his level of finishing is sustainable, it is not just a hot streak.

All of his goals have come from inside box, no penalties, Jackson is sniffing out high quality goalscoring opportunities, rather than accumulating lots of lower-probability chances – another tick.

Chelsea’s trip to Ipswich on Monday 30th December is a big chance for Jackson to cash in against a team with a -16 goal difference after 17 games, who have the 2nd-worst defence in the league on xGA.

With Jackson averaging 0.68 goals per 90 and 0.64 xG per 90, he could fill his boots with the Blues as short as 1.33 on Betfair to score 2 or more goals at Portman Road. A brace would then see this leg require just 1 more goal from the outings v Fulham and Crystal Palace (hardly the most challenging Premier League opponents) for it to win.

We have taken a mathematical approach to finding value in the fouls committed market for Jackson in this trio.

In 37.5% (6/16) of the 23-year-old’s league starts this term he has committed 2 or more fouls. That is over a 1 in 3 hit rate.

Therefore, based on that data it is likely that Jackson fouls twice or more in 1 of the 3 encounters.

That would leave just 2 more fouls needing to be committed over the other 2 games, while the Senegalese is sitting pretty, from this bet’s point of view, at an average of 1.14 fouls committed per 90 in the league this season.

Due to the fatigue that the fixture congestion brings in this period of the season, there is a chance that total foul numbers increase with teams looking to slow games down and decision-making, and from that the timing of challenges, being less smart than they are in less congested times.

Jackson has fouled in 5 of his last 6 PL appearances, sinning 8 times across those 6 games. A repeat of those kind of numbers sees this leg land with some comfort.

Jackson is averaging 1.07 fouls won per 90, so this is possibly the most cautious leg of the treble in requiring him to win 2 in a 3-game period.

The 23-year-old has been fouled twice or more in 4 of his 16 league starts (25%), and if 1 of those games is repeated in this run the leg will land.

Even if the Gambia-born forward is rotated for 1 of the 3 games, we’re confident that the data is on our side for this leg to come in. Once again pointing to 22/1 as a great price to take on this festive period.