Viking v Odd
It has been an absolutely shambolic second half of the season for Viking. They have now only won 3 of their last 20 league games and this feels like a club who just want the season to end right now. It looked like they were going to spring a major surprise last week when they were 4-2 up vs Bodo Glimt last week away from home with only 25 mins left. However, they totally collapsed and eventually lost 4-5 in what was a wild encounter. Expectations were high at this club and most people expected them to finish in the top five. However, a combination of injuries, poor dealings in the transfer market and also a gruelling European qualifying campaign has taken its toll on the team. Even still, there is no real excuse why they have plummeted so badly in recent times. This team should be performing better but it is obvious the players just want their winter break to refresh. Viking have been conceding a lot of goals and it’s been a while since they last kept a clean sheet.
Odd have been in completely contrasting form and have been flying in recent weeks. They hammered Stromsgodset 5-1 last week and looked like a very hungry team that wants to finish as high as possible. Odd have only lost 1 of their last 10 league games, of which the one defeat in itself was rather unusual because they led heading into the 90th minute but somehow lost the game 2-3 vs Tromso. Paco Johansen will be very pleased with the job he’s done in his first season at the club. Odd could finish as high as 5th place with a victory, so there is certainly plenty of incentive for them to prevail. Odd have the fourth best away record out of any team in the league and obtained 19 points from 14 fixtures on the road. They have travelled well this year so should be confident.
Odd are a staggeringly big price to win this game. For some strange reason, Viking are 1.90 favourites, which is completely wrong! If anything, these prices should be the other way round. Viking have shown little ability to win football matches in the second half of the season and I think Odd will have the clear motivational edge to get a top five finish. They are the better team and in better form so taking the visitors on an X2 double chance bet looks like such an obvious and
Tromso v Aalesund
It has been a tremendous second half of the season for Tromso. They looked like being involved in the relegation battle at the midway point of the campaign. A superb run of just 3 defeats in 15 league games has really propelled Gutan right up the table though, to such an extent that a top five finish is possible if they were to win this match and other results went in their favour. Tromso have been excellent at home this year and only lost twice at Alfheim Stadium. They did not have such good results here last year, but as expected, this fortress has once again become a stronghold. Tromso are the most northerly professional football club in the world and are well inside the Arctic Circle. It is the sort of location that nobody likes to visit.
Aalesund have done well this season under the management of Lars Arne Nilsen. He has guided the team to a safe midtable position and achieved all of their objectives. They don’t have that much to play for here and motivation could be questionable. They lost their most recent away match 0-4 at Kristiansund and this feels like a similar sort of situation. After a long and tough season, the last thing they want is a trip to the far north of Norway where it might be hard for them to stay focused. Aalesund are generally strong defensively but going forwards they are not the most prolific team. Former Tromso striker Moses Ebiye should feature upfront here and is an interesting side story, but to be brutally honest he is not really good enough despite some fleeting moments of decent form.
This feels like a typical end of season match where the home side will just try harder and probably prevail. Tromso are the better team anyway and I like them to get 3 points here. I think the best and most simple option is just to back them straight on the nose. They are a more than acceptable price to win at 1.70.
Stromsgodset v Bodo Glimt
This match means far more to Bodo Glimt. They must win to guarantee themselves 2nd place, which could be important if Norway gets a second UEFA Champions League spot from the coefficient rankings. There is the potential that might occur, so I expect the visitors to be fully focused and motivated to get the result they require here. Glimt were involved in an absolutely wild match last week when they beat Viking 5-4 at home. It looked like they were going to lose when 2-4 down with only 25 mins left to play, but a remarkable comeback led by midfielder Hugo Vetlesen means that their destiny is in their own hands with one match remaining. Vetlesen is suspended for this game, which is a blow, but Glimt have enough strength in depth to cover for his absence. They are the highest scoring team in the Eliteserien this season, amassing 82 goals in 29 games.
This should be a fairly straightforward Bodo Glimt victory because Stromsgodset are in such terrible form. They have lost 8 of their last 10 league matches and look like the sort of team who have been ‘on the beach’ for a while now. They are guaranteed survival, but it might only be by virtue of one position. That is all that really matters though and Godset have achieved their primary objective for the campaign. They are usually a better home team and might try and put on some sort of a show for their own fans at Marienlyst Stadion. I would imagine the Godset game plan will be quite attacking. They have no reason to go into their shell here and just grind out a low scoring draw. The team from Drammen have scored at least one goal in 7 of their last 9 games and I think there is a good chance they can hit the back of the net in this fixture. Bodo Glimt have had defensive frailties at times this year.
I think this will be an away victory and probably a comfortable one. But I think the best bet is to take over 3.5 goals at 1.65. Glimt could cover this line on their own but there is a likelihood that both teams score. Kjetil Knutsen’s visitors have only kept two clean sheets in their last 15 fixtures in all competitions, so one way or another at least four goals should be scored here.
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