When analysing both teams’ trends—especially their home and away records—this fixture is highly likely to feature at least two goals. Aston Villa’s matches at Villa Park average 2.9 goals per game, with 86.7% of their home league fixtures (all but two) seeing at least two goals scored.

Nottingham Forest displays a similar pattern on their travels, averaging 3.4 goals per game, also with all but two of their away fixtures hitting this mark. Additionally, the last five Premier League meetings between these sides have produced at least two goals, reinforcing this selection. 

While Forest’s corner count isn’t among the league’s highest, they have been remarkably consistent in this metric, registering at least 3 corners in each of their last eleven games. This trend remains strong away from home, with Forest hitting this target in their last ten matches across all competitions.

Meanwhile, Villa, despite their defensive solidity at home, still concede an average of 3.27 corners per game in the Premier League, with five of their last seven visitors reaching at least 3 corners.  

Yates is Forest’s most aggressive player, committing an average of 1.71 fouls per game, which rises to 2.35 per 90 minutes. He has registered 2 or more fouls in six of his last seven appearances. With Aston Villa’s midfield drawing 11 fouls across their last four games, it could be a difficult afternoon for Yates.  

Williams faces a challenging matchup against Aston Villa’s attack, particularly Morgan Rogers, who draws 1.43 fouls per 90 minutes, and Matty Cash, who averages 0.84. The Welsh full-back commits 0.9 fouls per 90 but has registered at least 1 foul in each of his last five appearances, including the reverse fixture earlier this season.  

Forest’s defensive frailties on the road suggest Villa should comfortably generate 4 or more shots on target. Forest concedes an average of 5.27 shots on target per away game in the Premier League, with each of their last five opponents—and eight of their last ten—hitting this mark.

Meanwhile, Villa is a far greater attacking threat at home, averaging 5.83 shots on target across all competitions, compared to just 3.7 on the road. Notably, they have recorded at least 4 shots on target in all nineteen of their home games this season. 

Despite Nottingham Forest boasting the league’s third-best away record with 26 points collected on the road, Villa is a formidable force at home. Alongside Liverpool and Arsenal, they are one of only three teams to have lost just once at home in the league this season. Their dominance extends across all competitions, remaining unbeaten at Villa Park since late October (W10, D6). 


This success stems from a dramatic improvement in both attack and defence when playing at home. Villa’s goal average rises from 1.27 per game on the road to 1.67 at home, while their defensive record improves significantly, conceding just 1.2 goals per game compared to 1.8 away.

Meanwhile, Forest’s defensive vulnerabilities on the road—conceding 1.67 goals per game compared to just 0.67 at home—further bolster Villa’s chances. History is also on the home side’s side, as Forest have not won at Villa Park since 1994. However, given Forest’s strong away form, the added safety of a draw makes this a prudent selection.

Rogers plays a pivotal attacking role for Villa, frequently drawing fouls from opposition defenders. While his season average stands at 1.4 fouls won per 90, he has drawn multiple fouls in six of his last ten starts.

Forest’s defensive midfielders have struggled with discipline, committing 18 fouls in their last four matches, 15 of which came from their defensive midfielders. Rogers was a major problem for Forest in the reverse fixture, winning four fouls, highlighting their difficulty in containing him.  

In midfield alongside Ryan Yates, Anderson is one of Forest’s most fouled players. His season-long average of 1.94 fouls won per game has seen him earn at least 1 foul in fourteen of his last fifteen appearances, with multiple fouls won in seven of those.

Villa’s right side has been particularly aggressive, conceding 11 fouls in their last three games. Away from home, Anderson draws even more fouls, averaging 2.22 per 90, winning 3 or more in four of his last five road fixtures.