One of the many truisms of boxing proposes that rematches tend to follow the pattern of the first fight, only with a more decisive outcome. In August 2023, Usyk was typically patient, adjusting to Dubois's style as rounds unfolded and ultimately, deconstructed whatever limited confidence the Englishman brought to the ring. He won in the 9th.

The concluding blow – an innocuous right-hand jab from Usyk’s Southpaw stance – extinguished the last of Dubois' resistance, which had largely drained away when a belt-line body shot had dropped the champion in the fifth but was ruled a low blow. Frustrated and dispirited, the sense that the then 25-year-old didn’t possess the grit to persevere when things were going against him became widespread. Taking a knee late in the loss to Joe Joyce in 2020, a broken eye socket the cause, had promoted the notion, and a chaotic display versus the modest Kevin Lerena two years later did little to dispel the idea.

Therefore, a safe conclusion is to back Usyk at the most meagre of margins of 4/11 to win. One way or another. Usyk has proven to be the master boxer, always away from home in the opponent’s ‘back-yard’ and often physically disadvantaged in height, reach, weight and age. The environment, the challenge, and the stakes will not faze him. Improve margins by chasing a repeat of the first fight with Dubois' confidence, gained against more conventional and lesser-skilled opponents, ebbing away as once again Usyk’s precision and mobility frustrate the Englishman. Usyk to win by stoppage in rounds 7-12 offers 11/4.

Despite being the older man, Usyk has a more economical style, is accustomed to fighting Orthodox opponents in a way an Orthodox fighter cannot match with Southpaws. The veteran will not burn the nervous energy Dubois may expend in the early rounds either. Usyk’s accuracy should score the points with the three judges perched at the ringside, and he tends to adjust and build through the middle rounds. He has the craft to eke out another win.

This doesn’t discount Dubois. The transformative influence of the sage Don Charles as his trainer has undoubtedly liberated his physical gifts from the constraints of the apparent mental fragility that blighted his earlier career. In victories over Jarrell Miller, Filip Hrgovic, and, latterly, the once dominant Anthony Joshua in crushing fashion, Dubois has added steel to that mentality and a simplicity to Dubois’ strategy. ‘Go knock the guy out.'

A simplicity of objective that seems to be a good, natural fit for his obvious physical tools. Strong with both hands, younger, fresh, and emboldened by success.

It will be a very good win if Usyk repels him at age 38.

For those looking for a higher return on Saturday, but want to stick with the quality of Usyk, it is possible there will be a knockdown for either man in this bout. Dubois claimed one in the first fight and has beaten up and knocked out big heavyweights in recent bouts.

There is a healthy 5/2 available on Dubois to drop Usyk, and there is temptation in the possibility. Dubois is an improved fighter. He is younger, fresher and willing to trade in a way he wasn’t in their first fight. But Usyk is wily. Disguises discomfort. But body shots could be his weakness. As a strategy, it is a wise one for Dubois to pursue, as mobility and the quality of his footwork are some of Usyk’s most distinct advantages. If body work takes away Usyk’s ability to move freely, it improves Dubois’ chances of a punch out, which favours his power over the former Cruiserweight’s precision.

There are variables on this idea. As a more specific prediction, Usyk to be knocked down but win at 15/2 has appeal. It has a repeat narrative from their first fight, and as that old boxing truism suggests, the rematch tends to follow the pattern of the first.

Enjoy the fight. These are golden days in the heavyweight division.