Friday’s Gem was void yet again, but Alejandro Catena to commit 1+ foul looks the perfect replacement this weekend to give us the best chance of finally hitting that perfect 10.

The Spaniard is priced at 1.66 to commit a foul, and when you consider his fouling trends, the likely matchup, and the fact he is as short as 1.17 elsewhere, the value quickly becomes clear.

Catena is averaging 1.33 fouls per 90 this season and has committed at least one foul in six of his last seven starts. Operating as the central centre-back in a back three, he often carries greater defensive responsibility, finding himself exposed to direct duels through the middle.

His likely matchup comes in the form of Borja Iglesias, a player who may not pose blistering pace but makes up for it with physicality, strength, and clever hold-up play that regularly draws contact. This is reflected in his 1.42 fouls won per 90 this season, highlighting the kind of challenge Catena will be drawn into repeatedly on Sunday.

What further strengthens this pick is history. Catena has committed a foul in all four previous meetings against Celta Vigo, while Iglesias drew three fouls in both fixtures last season. The patterns are hard to ignore.