One of the key reasons for Plymouth’s decision to take Foster out of the head coach’s position was the change in home form at Home Park. Argyle had gone through League One and into the Championship with a superb home record, free-scoring and exciting. n direct contrast to what was being served up under Foster, with no goals in four home games before the equaliser against QPR on Tuesday night, and even that was an own goal.

Overall, the Pilgrims would probably be unfortunate to be relegated. Both their season-long data, where they still have a top half xG creation record, and their 2024 data, has them around 16th-18th in the table for expected points. Their issue has been defensive, with a much poorer xG against than their xG for.

Leicester have an excellent overall record as one would expect for a team that is top of the league and full of quality operators. Even their 2024 data, though not as impressive as their 2023 record, still has them creating the second-highest xG and 6th-best xG against record.

The issue with Leicester at the moment seems to be just as much mental as it is performance-based. They had 72% possession at Millwall on Tuesday and could only convert that into 11 shots, only one of which could be described as a big chance. In another recent 1-0 away defeat, to Bristol City, they did create four big chances but failed to convert any.

Leicester will have more of the ball in this match too, but it remains to be seen what they are able to do with it. They have to be favourites for the win given the respective form and data lines, and if we are talking about a data-based bet builder then adding the Foxes to win makes the most sense.

It is late in the season when your leaders need to step up and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is one of those for Leicester.

He has played a huge number of minutes and has been a consistent driving force from midfield. He continually supports attacks in the box, as well as carrying the ball there himself, while also offering a set-piece threat. He is a decent price for a single shot on target here, especially in a game that Leicester will hope to dominate. He has had six shots in their last three games, hitting the target against Norwich and Birmingham.

We saw that Millwall got some joy on the counter attack against Leicester and this is clearly going to be a key route to goal for Plymouth too, and one would suspect that their attackers could get a couple of shots on target themselves.

Morgan Whittaker is one of the key marksmen in the whole league for shots and shots on target, he’s worth a punt here following another two on target in their last match.

If Neil Dewsnip is bold with his selection and goes with Callum Wright as well, then he is a good price for one shot on target or more. He has started the last two matches and had five shots, and will form an athletic front three alongside Ryan Hardie and Whittaker.

Leicester have been battering teams on the corner lines of late. They appear to be using tactics which camp them in their opponents’ half for extended periods, but while they perhaps don’t get the shots return from that territorial dominance, they do get plenty of corners.

They beat Birmingham 10-0 in corners, Norwich 9-2, and Millwall 9-3, in their last match. However, their away averages this season see them concede more corners away from home than they force themselves. Adding them into a bet builder at the short price that they are currently is a bit risky, but given current form it is probably fair.

Plymouth concede more corners than they earn at home, and they have one of the highest overall corner averages in the league. They earn 6.1 and concede 6.39 based on 2023/24 Championship data, which adds fuel to fire of Leicester’s favouritism in the market and also gives some credibility to backing the overs.

Also, the way that Abdul Fatawu and Stephy Mavididi play, if they both start the game, is more direct than some of the other options that Leicester have.

The outside centre backs of a back three are often the ones who will look to engage the opposition, often knowing that they have the central player of the three to cover. Therefore, it was a surprise to see that Lewis Gibson, usually Plymouth’s left centre back in a three, at odds-against to commit a single foul or more.

This surprise was even more interesting when we discovered that Gibson has indeed registered a foul in his last three matches. He also committed a foul in the return game against Leicester, and lining up against the likes of Patson Daka or Jamie Vardy, plus Abdul Fatawu and Wilfried Ndidi, there are a lot of potential attacking threats to deal with.

From a Leicester perspective, Ricardo Pereira broke a five-game fouling streak last time out against Millwall, but he has fouled in nine games out of 11, with a total of 12 fouls in those 11 matches. He is also very likely to play the full 90 minutes as he has done in 10 of his last 13 matches.