Semenyo has embedded himself seamlessly in the Manchester City machine, and has emerged as their most reliable attacker since his arrival from Bournemouth.

I wondered if he could transition from being such a talisman in a small side, to being a cog in a bigger machine, when in fact he’s just becoming a talisman for the bigger team.

Domestically, he’s averaged 1.13 shots on target per 90 for Manchester City. He averaged 1.35 per 90 in the league whilst at Bournemouth.

Since signing, he has had one or more shots on target in nine of his 11 starts, and he’s scored seven goals along the way.

In 2025/26, he has started 36 matches, and this selection has landed in 31 of them.

Real are a bit all over the place in terms of their defensive selections. Ferland Mendy returned at the weekend, so he will likely start at left back, and although that is positive for them; he is perhaps lacking some sharpness, and Semenyo is not the type of player you want to be facing after a long lay-off.

Kylian Mbappe is still a doubt for this game, opening the door for Vinicius Junior to be Real Madrid’s talisman again. Vinicius often takes on a more proactive role when Mbappe isn’t in the side, and this game should be no different, with the Brazilian often saving his best form for the Champions League.

Vinicius has taken an eye-catching 35 shots across his nine starts in the Champions League this season, working out to an average of 3.89 shots per 90. You always have a decent chance of hitting the target with this kind of shot volume, and what’s notable about Vinicius' shot output is that it tends to increase when Mbappe is not in the side.

Of those 35 attempts, 12 have found the target in the Champions League (1.33 per 90). Vinicius’ numbers are almost identical in La Liga this season:

3.27 shots per 90

1.37 shots on target per 90

This shows that he tends to perform to a pretty consistent standard in front of goal, and has a pretty decent record when it comes to taking aim against Manchester City. He’s had 13 shots across the last five meetings between the sides, managing at least three shots in four of those matches.

Valverde is often a player I think that is misprofiled, and I see people backing foul bets with him in, with little substance. More based on his reputation. He is busy, industrious and aggressive, but in his role at right back for Real, with the game largely in front of him, he’s more measured.

However, with issues across the side in terms of injuries, and the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold, he’s been back in midfield.

In midfield, he has made a foul in five of his last six matches, including two at the weekend against Celta Vigo and four in the Champions League play-off against Benfica.

In total, he’s made nine fouls across his last six appearances. That’s an average of 1.60 fouls per 90 minutes, which is a big jump from his domestic average this season of 0.69.

A player who is now averaging 1.60 fouls per 90, shouldn’t be priced at 1.57. 

Also, factoring in potential opponents and their fouls drawn numbers, there's a lot to go at here. Rayan Cherki (2.04), Rodri (1.95) and Jeremy Doku (2.86) are three of City’s stat leaders in that department.

I’m always really interested to see how Guardiola develops players, he isn’t afraid to move players around in different positions - as we’ve seen with Matheus Nunes over the last few seasons.

Semenyo has been playing quite centrally in recent matches, with Guardiola looking to make the most of how comfortable Semenyo is on both feet. This slight position change should lead to a rise in how often Semenyo is hauled to the ground, he’s averaging 0.68 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season, which is why he’s priced like this to win a single foul.

Semenyo’s strength and power is commonplace in the Premier League, but a real standout feature of his game when playing in Europe. He’ll be making his Champions League debut for Manchester City here, and I think that power will serve him well against a Real Madrid side that can be quite petulant.

Real Madrid committed 16 fouls when they welcome Benfica to the Bernabeu in the second leg of their playoff tie against Jose Mourinho, with Tchouameni responsible for three of these fouls. If Semenyo is pushed back out to his usual role on the wing, he’ll face off against Camavinga and Carreras, who committed a foul each in that win over Benfica - and are averaging 3.34 fouls committed per 90 between them in the Champions League this season.