Hugo Ekitike has been superb for Liverpool this season, with his brace against Newcastle last time out taking his tally to 10 Premier League goals across just 15 starts in his debut season.

Ekitike is Liverpool’s top scorer in the Premier League this season, with Gakpo being second in this list, having netted five goals. Arne Slot’s side have had to rely on the former Frankfurt forward this term in the absence of Alexander Isak, who suffered an injury just as he was starting to find his feet.

Ekitike’s shot volume in the Premier League this season really stands out when looking to back him for a shot on target here. He’s had 51 shots across his 15 starts in the Premier League this season (3.42 per 90), with 17 of these attempts finding the target (1.14 per 90).

You could definitely argue that Ekitike should be more accurate with his efforts, but his willingness to take aim makes him a good player to back for a shot on target here. He’s had a shot on target in three of his last five Premier League starts, and managed four shots on target in Liverpool’s 4-1 win over Newcastle last time out. 

Ekitike is priced as low as 1.13 for 2+ shots in this clash, so it’s better to go with him to have a shot on target from these attempts, rather than take that very low price.

Nunes has performed pretty admirably as a right back for Pep Guardiola, and his 1v1 battle against Cody Gakpo stands out to me here. Gakpo isn’t the first name you’d expect to see highly ranked in the foul charts, but he is quite aggressive and has committed 24 fouls across his 18 starts in the Premier League this term (1.36 per 90).

Only Hugo Ekitike (26) has committed more fouls for Liverpool in the Premier League this season than Gakpo, which gives us an insight into how Liverpool may approach this game, and where their fouls may be concentrated. Gakpo has committed a foul in three of his last five Premier League appearances, and will face a player in Nunes who has a solid record when it comes to drawing fouls.

Nunes has been fouled in four of his last five Premier League appearances for Man City, drawing 18 fouls across his 19 starts overall (0.92 per 90). Nunes was also fouled twice during the week in City’s 3-1 win over Newcastle to book their spot in the EFL Cup final. I think Gakpo will continue to be aggressive, and Liverpool won’t be afraid to press from the front given the issues that City are currently dealing with at the back.

I’d also explore some other angles for City defenders to be fouled given that Gakpo and Ekitike have been Liverpool’s most aggressive players this season. Marc Guehi is priced at 1.57 to be fouled here, which may also be a price worth considering.

Szoboszlai needs more help 1v1 than a proper right back. It can be on Gravenberch to cover for Szoboszlai when he bombs on, similar to what we saw for many years with Jordan Henderson filling in for Trent Alexander-Arnold. He committed three fouls against Newcastle last weekend, when Szoboszlai was at right back.

He may also be expected to be more aggressive off the ball because of Szoboszlai's absence from midfield areas, in looking to replace that energy. All three of his fouls were on the right half of the pitch. On Joe Willock (left of a midfield three) twice, and Harvey Barnes (cutting from left wing).

Gravenberch committed two fouls in Liverpool’s last meeting with City, while City have won 11 fouls per game on average this season (6th-most in the league).

Phil Foden averages 1.37 fouls won per 90, Tijjani Reijnders is at 0.82, Antoine Semenyo is at 0.65 - last season he won 1.04 (so expect that to increase), Rodri is at 2.1, and Nico Gonzalez is at 1.13. Not all of those players will be on the pitch at the same time, but they're very healthy foul-winning averages.

We were interested in pro-Liverpool angles like Double Chance, but have taken Over 1.5 Liverpool Goals for some extra juice in the price. This is the longest leg of the bet builder, and we should certainly get a run for our money, with Liverpool as low as 1.13 in places to score over 0.5 goals.

City have conceded in four out of five in the league, with the only clean sheet in that run coming against Wolves. They had to take on a physical Newcastle side on Wednesday, while Liverpool have had a clear week.

The bet has landed in City’s last three away games - conceding two at Tottenham, three at Bodo/Glimt and two at Man United. Liverpool boast more in attacking areas than those three.

There have been cases in the last few years, where this encounter has fizzled out as both sides were content with a draw. Times have changed, both sides ideally need a win, Liverpool for the top four race, and City to stay in the title race. Arsenal should beat Sunderland on Saturday to go nine points clear of City.

The bet has landed in three of the last five Liverpool home league games, in the two exceptions, they posted 2.08xG and 3.18xG. They’re regularly creating opportunities to score 2+ goals at home.