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The final day of the Premier League is usually never a dull one with so much on the line after a gruelling first 37 game weeks. Last year’s final day headlines were centred around the top of the table with City edging rivals Liverpool to the title. However, this year the drama is at the other end of the table with two of Everton, Leicester & Leeds set to face the drop to the second tier. All 10 games kick off at 4:30 PM on Sunday – to ensure no side has an advantage of knowing what’s required – which makes the perfect opportunity for a special across the 10 games.
In recent years, the PL has become goal heavy on the final day with teams often having nothing to lose or chasing a result, an important factor to consider in today’s fixtures. The Champions League places are sealed, as well as the Europa League places and title which leaves the relegation battle as all that’s left to settle. Everton are in pole position and will fancy their chances at home to Bournemouth, however, a point would allow either Leicester or Leeds to jump them with a victory, hence the Merseyside outfit need to chase three points. Leicester and Leeds know nothing, but a win will do as they host West Ham and Spurs respectively. So with the three sides with something riding on today needing to win, we are expecting goals aplenty on Sunday.
Historically, the final day has seen an increase in goals per game and BTTS%. An astounding 18/20 sides found the back of the net last year, only Norwich and Man United letting down BTTS. There was also an exceptional 3.9 goals per game, continuing the record of 3+ goals averaged on every final day since 2014/15. The carnage of the final day was epitomised by a Spurs side that only required a point, winning 5-0 at Carrow Road.
Sunday’s Premier League Final Day Boosts
Arsenal v Wolves
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Kick off: 16:30
The side with the lowest BTTS rate in the league will fancy their chances of scoring at the Emirates with Arsenal’s last home clean sheet coming nearly 3 months ago. Arsenal have looked a shadow of the force they were earlier this season since losing William Saliba at the back, yet still possess the same firepower going forward, scoring in 16/18 home games. The Midlands outfit have a history of finding the back of the net at the Emirates with BTTS landing in each of their last 5 trips here.
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Aston Villa v Brighton
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Kick off: 16:30
Two sides who are unexpectedly sitting in the European places on the final day should play out an entertaining finale on the last day. Villa know they need to win on the final day to secure conference league football with Spurs hot on their tails. The likes of Ollie Watkins have thrived under Unai Emery as Villa scored in 20 straight games. Meanwhile, their visitors today have scored in 17 of their 18 away games this season with de Zerbi finding a perfect way to blend his front 4. Over 1.5 goals has also landed in 100% of Brighton’s travels this year.
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Everton v Bournemouth
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Kick off: 16:30
All of the attention will be at Goodison Park where Everton hosts the 2nd worst defensive side in the league in Bournemouth. The Cherries have had an outstanding second half to the season and credit must go to Gary O’Neil but they still have their defensive struggles. Only 3 teams have fewer clean sheets than Everton and Bournemouth this year. Everton need to adopt a ‘gung-ho’ approach from the start to protect their 17th place from Leicester and Leeds. Bournemouth will be able to spring a counterattack or two against an Everton side forced to veer away from Sean Dyche’s playstyle.
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Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur
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Kick off: 16:30
Sam Allardyce is going to have to work miracles to keep this Leeds side up. Winning v Spurs is the final task while they have to rely on results elsewhere at Goodison and The King Power. Leeds have kept just 5 clean sheets this season and welcome a Spurs side with 66 goals and needing 3 points to have any chance at Europe. These are ominous signs for a side with the most goals conceded at home all season. Spurs themselves are no strangers to leaking goals, averaging 2+ against on the road this season, the 5th highest.
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Brentford v Manchester City
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Kick off: 16:30
It came as a shock to all when Brentford cruised past City at the Etihad back in November. The Bees more than held their own with 8 shots on target, 2 finding the back of the net. Brentford average just 1.21 goals per game on the road compared to 1.84 at home so they can be expected to breach the champions’ backline today. City have scored 94 goals in the Prem this season and have failed to score just twice all season. Erling Haaland’s 44 goals contributions are more than 8 sides in the Prem this season.
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Manchester United v Fulham
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Kick off: 16:30
The FA Cup tie between these two sides back in March was unforgettable. Fulham were by far the better side until a moment of madness that saw 3 red cards swung the tie back in United’s favour. Fresh off his 8-game ban, Mitrovic will be keen for revenge. Marco Silva isn’t shy of taking the game to his opponents on away days, with Fulham scoring in 13/18 games. Meanwhile, the Red Devils have scored in 16/18 at Old Trafford and won’t rotate heavily in attack, looking to give the likes of Rashford more game time before the cup final against Man City.
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Chelsea v Newcastle United
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Kick off: 16:30
Two sides with contrasting seasons look to finish off their seasons with a win on Sunday. Aiming to finish top of the bottom half, Frank Lampard will be aiming to sign off with 3 points after an abysmal spell. They have looked defensively fragile all season despite heavy investment which will have Alexander Isak and Callum Wilson licking their lips.
The star duo have worked excellently in tandem, firing Newcastle into the top 4 when their defence stumbled in the second half of the season. A Leicester side with no need to push for more than a point gave the Geordies their first clean sheet since the 2nd of April last time out. This game won’t be as one-sided with both sides attacking on the regular.
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Leicester City v West Ham United
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Kick off: 16:30
Leicester City know nothing less than a win will suffice on the final day of the season, and even then, that might not be enough. The Foxes have had a lacklustre season and settled for a point at St. James Park providing some resilience for the first time in a while. Prior to that draw they had shipped 10 in 3 games, chasing wins.
West Ham will have 10 days to rest for their European final and will be at full strength looking to finish an underwhelming domestic campaign off with a win. The Hammers did a job on Leeds for the Foxes last time out but they won’t be taking their foot off the gas to help them here.
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Southampton v Liverpool
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Kick off: 16:30
Europa League for Liverpool. It’s not what Klopp or the fans needed but they can take comfort from their end of the season which has seen them unbeaten in 10 with 7 wins. Against a Saints side who have conceded a league-high 33 goals at home, they will be expected to finish the season off in style. BTTS landed in the reverse fixture despite Southampton averaging less than a goal a game on the road and the same bet landed in this fixture last season. Liverpool ran out winners both times for those who want a higher value option.
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Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest
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Kick off: 16:30
Crystal Palace welcome a jubilant Nottingham Forest side to Selhurst Park on Sunday, who have defied all expectations on the way to survival. Despite a number of signings, it took a while for Cooper to blend his Forest side together to churn out results. They manage to grind out a 1-0 win against title challengers Arsenal but had BTTS land in 5 games prior with a total of 23 goals. Palace will want to pip fellow London club Chelsea to 11th with 3 points today. Similarly, Hodgson will be aiming to bow out with a win and will adopt a similarly aggressive approach to the 2-2 draw at Fulham last time out.
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Back either of the Premier League Final Day Boosts Below ⬇️
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Back over 1.5 goals in every Premier League game this Sunday @ 10/3 on Paddy Power
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