The Premier League weekend kicks off at the London Stadium as West Ham United host Chelsea. It’s a game both sides will be desperate to win, not just for the bragging right either. The hosts are sitting a point and a place above the relegation zone while the visitors run towards a place in Europe that has to begin now.

Things haven’t gone the way Graham Potter would have liked to date, losing 8 of 11 matches between the end of October and mid-January but their performances are changing for the better with three clean sheets in a row coinciding with four matches in which they have created 14 big chances. A consistent feature of their play is the way their attacking players step inside to get involved.

The timing of their runs, the willingness to drive forward with the ball and nature of their possession-heavy style means they are regularly clipped, tripped and left on the ground. Loftus-Cheek, Hall, Gallagher, Ziyech, Pulisic and Mount are all fouled 1.5 times per game or more on average per start. Gallagher has been fouled at least twice in his last three matches, Mount has been fouled in each of his last four matches, Havertz in three of his last four and Felix could return for this one – he was fouled four times on debut before a red card.

It means West Ham United’s midfield are going to have a job on their hands tracking runners, denying space, blocking runs. The Hammers changed shape from 4-2-3-1 to 3-4-3 for their last two matches, wielding improved results. In both of those games, Declan Rice committed two fouls. Rice has committed at least one foul in all but three league matches this term and in games against the “big six”, he has committed two or more fouls in five of six matches.

You can get odds of 1.44 on Declan Rice to commit one foul in this game and it’s a no brainer.

Arsenal host Brentford this weekend looking to get back to winning ways after a bump in the road at Everton last weekend.

The Gunners are having an incredible campaign, sitting top of the league table having won 16 of their 20 league matches and they will have plenty of confidence heading into this one having won eight and drawn one of their nine league games at the Emirates Stadium.

Key to their charge towards the title this season has been the loveable Bukayo Saka, the 21-year-old who has overcome Euro 2020 heartbreak to be one of the standout performers in the league this season. Even in defeat at Everton, he was on top of his game, completing five dribbles, four key passes and getting four shots off. Saka is also a player regularly on the end of opposition ire, fouled 1.6 times per game this season and ten times in his last three matches. He has been fouled once in all but three league matches and in every home match.

He will come up in direct competition against Brentford full-back Rico Henry, who will play left-back or left wing-back depending on the system Thomas Frank decides to use for this one. Brentford are one of the most organised, committed sides in the division and Henry is a key part of this, regularly finding himself in duels. He has committed at least one foul in eight of his last ten matches and in the two he didn’t commit a foul, he made eight tackles. He has fouled opponents twice in each of his last two matches and will have his work cut out against Saka in this one.

Fulham won the Championship at a canter last year and they’ve continued that positivity into this campaign, currently sitting in the top half of the Premier League table. Key to their impressive form has been a fast and direct style in which they utilise width brilliantly, particularly utilising the full-backs who are quick and like to carry the ball forward or make overlapping runs.

Those wide overloads could be important in this game with Nottingham Forest playing either a diamond or narrow 4-3-3 in recent games. The likelihood is that the midfield and wide attackers will be tasked with stopping Fulham at source and deny them the ability to get into their final third in dangerous positions to create or cross for the ever-dangerous Aleksander Mitrovic.

This will certainly be required down Fulham’s right where Bobby Reid and Kenny Tete link up brilliantly and regularly draw fouls – they have both been fouled in their last four matches and at least twice in two of those matches. Tete was fouled six times against Chelsea.

Renan Lodi’s odds are very short and in central midfield, it is debatable as to who plays with both Danilo and Oriel Mangala being withdrawn at half-time last time out. I’m going to therefore back Morgan Gibbs-White, who will be tasked with closing down Fulham’s right side when they are in deeper possession. He has committed at least one foul in each of his last four matches and at least two in three of those.

Leicester City play host to Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday in a game both sides will be keen to win, with the hosts looking to create more distance between themselves and the relegation places while the visitors will overtake Newcastle United ahead of the late kick off and move into the top four.

Leicester City have endured a difficult campaign to date but they are starting to find their feet again, picking up four points from their last two games and scoring six goals in the process, helped by James Maddison’s return to full fitness and the addition of 22-year-old forward Tete. They now have a collection of midfielders that are fit, confident and will look to make life difficult for Spurs. Maddison has been fouled five times in his last two starts and averages 2.3 fouls per game, Tete was fouled four times on debut and Barnes has been fouled in four of his last five games.

Spurs’ midfield pair are going to be key in denying Leicester’s attackers space to move into and fouls are part of that, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Rodrigo Bentancur committing an average of 2.4 fouls per game combined. I’m backing Hojbjerg to make a foul in this one. He will have Maddison in and around him throughout the game. He has committed at least one foul in eight of his last ten matches and at least one in each of his last four. Leicester are playing with some confidence again and that should lend to some fleet-footed forward play and trickery.

Saturday evening sees Eddie Howe return to Bournemouth for the first time since leaving the club he took from League Two to the Premier League after relegation in 2020, and he will looking to pile more misery on his former employers, who sit second from bottom at present, as he bids to keep his Newcastle United side in the top four.

It’s fair to say that games are often broken up in Newcastle United’s midfield. In games they have started, Bruno Guimaraes has been fouled 2.7 times per 90, Sean Longstaff 1.4 and Joelinton 1.1. Joelinton has committed 1.9 fouls per 90, Joe Willock 1.5, Guimaraes 1.4 and Longstaff 0.9. Joelinton has been fouled in six of his last seven matches and committed a foul in all but one league match this term.

Philip Billing has committed one foul in each of his last eight matches and been fouled eight times in his last three matches. Billing will be heavily involved in the action here too, Lewis Cook’s injury and Ben Pearson’s departure leaving Bournemouth light in midfield and it required Billing to start in a deeper role last time out alongside Jefferson Lerma. Of the two, it will be Billing that will be tasked with stepping out and engaging with the Magpies midfield.

Playing a deeper role, already committing fouls regularly, I’m going to back a Billing foul here against a Newcastle midfield that likes to run forward, carry the ball and are used to taking hits. He’s also on the left-side of the Bournemouth midfield which means he will likely come into contact with the pacey Miguel Almiron, who has been fouled in four of his last five games and at least twice in three of those.