Premier League Permutations

Never has it been more complicated to work out the permutations to for how the UEFA competition places will fall in the Premier League.

Until Aston Villa’s exit from the Champions League on Tuesday night, it had been possible for the top 11 teams in the English top-flight to represent the league in UEFA competition in 2025/26, alas, despite a great effort, Villa can now only qualify for the Champions League for another crack at the trophy via their Premier League placing.

Whilst many may yearn for the simplicity of only the champions of the league qualifying for the premier UEFA competition, and only the UEFA Cup to play for beyond that, the expansion of UEFA competition is way beyond that now.

Thankfully, we are here to run the numbers and supply you with the knowledge of how the Premier League could look, and, therefore, what motivation remains in the final few matches of the season.

UEFA Champions League Positions

It was long suspected, but only confirmed last week, that the Premier League will be in receipt of an EPS (European Performance Spot) in next season’s Champions League as a result of the Premier League teams’ performances in UEFA competitions.

This means that five Champions League spots are up for grabs via league position in the Premier League. Liverpool have mathematically confirmed their top-five position and are the only team certain of Champions League participation next season at this point.

Arsenal are the only Premier League team who could win the Champions League this season and qualify via that route. However, they are also in a very strong position to qualify via league position as well. If Arsenal do finish in the top five, and also win the Champions League, then the league qualification spot does NOT move down to the 6th-placed team.

Assuming that Arsenal don’t win the Champions League, the battle then commences for a top five position. Nottingham Forest have been inside the top five for almost all of the season, but are now only three points above Chelsea and Aston Villa in 6th and 7th.

Newcastle have a game in hand on all around them and sit in 4th place. Any point from that game would see Eddie Howe’s men leapfrog Forest into third.

Manchester City are currently 5th, a point clear of Chelsea and Aston Villa. Manchester City can still win the FA Cup, though a win in that competition would only be enough to qualify for the UEFA Europa League.

A likely top five in the Premier League this season, in order, would be: Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle, Man City and Nottingham Forest.

UEFA Europa League

Now that we know that Aston Villa will not win the Champions League, the Europa League qualifying scenario becomes a little clearer.

The team that finishes 6th in the Premier League will qualify for the league phase of the Europa League, and the other domestic avenue for Europa League qualification is by winning the FA Cup.

The FA Cup semi-finalists are Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, and Manchester City. If one of those teams win the FA Cup final and finish in the top six, then the Europa League spot moves down to the next highest Premier League finisher that hasn’t already qualified for UEFA competition.

This rule gives seventh place in the Premier League a strong chance of being a position that will carry a UEFA Europa League qualification place.

Likely 6th and 7th finishers are Aston Villa and Chelsea.

UEFA Conference League

Initially, at the beginning of the season, the only UEFA Conference League place available domestically is for the winners of the EFL Cup.

However, that competition has been won by Newcastle United, who look set to qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League via their league placing. In this case, the Conference League play-off round qualification spot will go to the next available league placing in the Premier League.

The chances are that this means that 8th place in the Premier League may also yield a UEFA competition qualification spot.

Fulham are a likely 8th-place finisher, should that happen, as long as Crystal Palace don’t win the FA Cup, then this is how the fight for European places will transpire.

The permutations still don’t end there. Chelsea are strong favourites to win the Europa Conference League, which would grant them a Europa League spot next season. In this case, though, their potential Europa League spot in the league does NOT get passed down to the next team in the league.

If Chelsea finish in 8th or below though, then the teams in 6th and 7th will qualify for the Europa League, and so would Chelsea in eighth or below. If Chelsea finish exactly 8th and win the Conference League, then the team who finishes in 9th will qualify for the Conference League play-offs.

Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur

There is a good chance that there will be more Premier League representation in the Champions League next season. Manchester United are the second favourites to win the Europa League, and Tottenham are the third favourites for the competition.

The winners of the Europa League qualify for next season’s Champions League, but both United and Spurs are also highly likely to finish in the bottom half of the Premier League table, so they don’t really affect the permutations of the league positions.

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