For a PSG bet builder, backing a home win is a smart move, despite Lille being a difficult nut to crack this season. The odds of 1.57 are enticing given that PSG have won seven of their 10 home matches in Ligue 1 this term.

Meanwhile, backing Les Parisiens with a -1 handicap at 2.60 is an intriguing bet given that across all competitions they have won 10 matches at home this season, nine of which have been won by at least two goals.

Lille are not a side that travel particularly well. LOSC have won only two of 10 away matches in Ligue 1, and though they have drawn six times on their travels, they have lost four of their last five matches against the capital giants.

Backing goals also looks promising in this encounter, despite Lille’s away games averaging only 2 goals per match. Both teams have scored in each of the last five encounters between these clubs, while PSG have scored 19 times in those clashes.

Kylian Mbappe is, inevitably, the man who all eyes will be on. Not only does the forward have twice as many Ligue 1 goals as anyone else in the league, he plays virtually every minute of every game for PSG. There was something of a scare when he picked up a knock late against Brest in midweek, but Luis Enrique has assured it is a minor problem.

The PSG v Lille Cheat Sheet shows that he posts 2.13 shots on target per 90 minutes. While he does not have a team-mate who is averaging more than one shot per game. Mbappe to have more than 2 shots on target at 1.44, therefore, looks the best value on the home side.

Kang-In Lee is a player whose price could be worth monitoring, with the exciting South Korean back from international duty and potentially going straight into the squad for this encounter. Similarly, with Achraf Hakimi back from international duty, there is limited chance of Warren Zaire-Emery being asked to play right back, so the midfielder may have a greater offensive say than his price of 3.60 to get one shot on target or more suggests.

One area where the home side are perhaps not worth backing, though, is in shots on target. The PSG stats show that they are averaging little over 5 shots on target in Ligue 1 this season, with that price available at just 1.25. PSG score goals because they are highly effective with the chances they create.

With the home side giving up 4 shots on target per match, Lille at 2.20 to have 5 efforts on [target or more is a risk that may be worth taking, especially with the hosts perhaps having one eye on the Champions League.

There are a greater spread of visiting players who offer value, with the Lille stats showing that three players muster more than 1 shot on target per 90 on average. The best value among those is tricky winger Edon Zhegrova, who has the type of buccaneering spirit that could see him chance his luck from range.

Jonathan David’s price of 1.30 to get a shot on target looks a little slim but he did manage 2 efforts on target off the bench against PSG when the sides last met and is 2.30 to repeat that.

For a PSG bet builder, Randal Kolo Muani is a surprising player to feature high on the foul count. The summer signing is averaging more than 3 fouls per game and will be up against Tiago Santos, the full-back who draws more free kicks than anyone else for Lille. Odds of 1.57 on ‘RKM’ to commit at least two fouls, therefore, look attractive.

In more of an outside bet, Lucas Hernandez is interesting in the foul count. He is likely to find himself in direct competition with Edon Zhegrova, who is a player who loves to be direct with the ball at his feet. He only averages 1.22 fouls per game but committed 3 up against Zhegrova in December. He has picked up four yellow cards, and there could be value in backing him to see a card at 3.30.

From a Lille perspective, look to the central midfielders to commit fouls. They will be forced to press a technical PSG central unit, and with both Benjamin Andre and Nabil Bentaleb featuring among their leading foulers, there is scope for both to rack up a significant count in this game. Andre made three fouls when these sides last met.