In recent years, Real Madrid have really taken back control of this fixture. Of the past 10 derbies in all competitions, there have been seven Real Madrid wins (one after extra time and one on penalties), as well as two draws and one Atleti win. However, that lone Atlético victory came at the end of last season when Real Madrid rested all but three starters.

In fact, the last time Atlético Madrid ‘properly’ won a derby in 90 minutes was a 1-0 LaLiga victory all the way back in 2016, some 20 meetings ago. The only three Atleti wins that have taken place since then were: one, the aforementioned win against a highly rotated Real Madrid XI last year; two, the 2018 UEFA Super Cup, which they only won after extra time; and three, a 2-1 second leg win in the 2016/17 Champions League that Real Madrid didn’t care about because they went through 4-2 on aggregate.

The stats, therefore, are really not in Atlético’s favour. Even when Diego Simeone’s side play well against Real Madrid, they still find a way to lose, as they did just last month in a 3-1 after extra time Copa del Rey defeat. It’s hard to see this weekend’s clash having a different outcome.

Another theme of the most recent Madrid derby matches is that there haven’t been many goals. Not one of the nine derbies to have taken place in the past four years has had more than 3.5 goals in the 90 minutes, producing an average of just 1.55 goals per 90 minutes.

It’s not hard to understand why the Madrid derby is such a low-scoring game, as it features two of the very best goalkeepers in the world in Thibaut Courtois and Jan Oblak. And, ahead of this particular derby, both shot-stoppers have been in good form – besides the Belgian’s giveaway for a goal against Liverpool in midweek. In LaLiga, Courtois has kept clean sheets in five of the six matches he has played since the World Cup break, while Oblak has kept clean sheets in five out of eight.

Those impressive stats also speak to how well the defences are playing, with players such as Nacho and Antonio Rüdiger, or Mario Hermoso and Reinildo having really stepped up in the past month. They could make this another tight derby on Saturday.

Brazilian forward Vinícius Júnior is the man of the moment for Real Madrid after his midweek heroics at Anfield salvaged a win from 2-0 down. That’ll send his already high confidence rocketing into the sky ahead of this derby, a fixture where he will want to be a protagonist given the controversy that surrounded him and racist chants in the fixture earlier this season.

This season, he has averaged 2.72 shots per 90, though that number has been even higher of late as he’s averaged 2.83 shots per 90 across his last six matches for Real Madrid. That run includes four shots against Atlético in the recent Copa del Rey quarter-final meeting.

His accuracy when shooting may not be the best, with only 52.1% of shots on target this season, which is why shots may be preferable to shots on target. However, it is worth pointing out that his last six attempts have all been on target with his last shot off target coming late against Valencia four matches ago.

Stefan Savić is expected to come back into the Atlético Madrid defence fresh from serving a suspension for a red card against Celta Vigo. It was his third sending off in his last five matches. That’s a run that includes a red card for two yellows against Real Madrid at the Bernabéu in the recent Copa del Rey clash.

Added into the equation is Jesús Gil Manzano. The referee has never overseen a Real Madrid defeat at the Bernabéu in 19 matches, and has awarded an average of 12.5 fouls per 90 against Atlético Madrid away from home over the past two seasons. Gil Manzano is not a popular figure in Atleti circles, as Savić himself publicly ranted early last season, saying “with him you can’t talk, you can’t just show a card every time anyone speaks to you”.

That combination, added in to the fact that Savić could play on the right of a back three will leave him exposed. Nahuel Molina at right-wing-back is guilty of getting caught out at times and Vinícius Júnior’s pace will likely mean that Savić is put into a difficult position frequently. The Atleti defender diving in and committing fouls is something we’re likely to see plenty of.