Roma v Lazio

This season’s second Derby della Capitale comes at a pivotal time, just as the tide appears to be turning in Rome.

With momentum swinging their way, Roma are eyeing up not only local bragging rights, but also the chance to leapfrog their bitter rivals in the race for a Champions League spot.

While Lazio currently hold the points advantage, their form has faltered at the worst possible time. They’ve recorded just three wins in their last 11 matches across all competitions, and look like a team clinging to position rather than charging forward.

Roma, by contrast, are unbeaten in their last 15 Serie A clashes, recording 11 wins and four draws over the period. As such, the bookies have them very marginal favourites at 2.6 compared to Lazio, who’ve been priced at 2.8.

Both sides face brutal run-ins, but it’s Lazio who arguably have the tougher path ahead, with clashes still to come against Atalanta, Fiorentina, and both Milan clubs.

Consequently, they’ll need to make the absolute most of the home advantage ahead of what appears to be a very finely poised derby.

⭐ Lazio v Roma Best Bet

➡️ Nico Rovella to be Shown a Card with bet365 @ 1.95 ↔️

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Only Monza’s Armando Izzo has received more yellow cards than Nicolò Rovella in Serie A this season. The Lazio midfielder has amassed 11 bookings in just 26 league appearances while also picking up three more yellows and a red in the Europa League.

The Derby della Capitale has a long-standing reputation for chaos, and recent history backs that up. The last four league meetings between Lazio and Roma have produced a staggering 32 yellow cards and four reds, with Rovella himself entering the book in the reverse fixture.

On that day, his opposite number drew seven fouls, an ominous sign considering Rovella is likely to be tasked with containing Manu Kone once again on Sunday. The Roma midfielder has drawn an average of 2.92 fouls per 90 minutes in Serie A, and his aggressive ball-carrying style could easily lure Rovella into yet another mistimed challenge.

👕 Lazio v Roma Predicted XI

🔍 Lazio v Roma Players to Watch

🔵 Gustav Isaksen

Gustav Isaksen offers as good value as any in the shots market, averaging 2.41 shots per 90, despite being shuffled around the attack and playing a large proportion of his games in midfield rather than on the wing.

He’s registered two or more shots in 15 of his last 21 appearances across all competitions, considering games in which he’s seen at least 45 minutes of action. What's more impressive is that he’s managed this output while completing a full 90 just four times.

Roma, for their part, have shown signs of defensive slippage, averaging 11.4 shots conceded per 90, with that figure augmenting to over 15 across their last four league fixtures. 

➡️ Gustav Isaksen to have 2+ Shots with bet365 @ 1.44 ↔️
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🔴 Manu Kone

Averaging 1.32 shots per 90 minutes in Serie A, Manu Koné offers solid value in the market ahead of what should be an action-packed affair.

The energetic midfielder has recorded at least one shot in six of his last seven appearances, with his only blank coming in Roma’s cagey stalemate with Juventus. He also tested the Lazio keeper in the reverse fixture and has consistently stepped up in Roma’s bigger games this season.

Lazio, meanwhile, have allowed their opponents an average of 10.4 shots per game, a figure that could easily rise amid their recent dip in form and tough opposition.

➡️ Manu Kone to have 1+ Shots with bet365 @ 1.50 ↔️
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📂 Lazio v Roma Cheat Sheet

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💻 Lazio v Roma Form and Tactics

Lazio are likely to stick with their familiar 4-2-3-1 setup, a system that hinges on swift movement and rapid vertical transitions. 

Their tactical approach places a strong emphasis on quick and accurate passing, aiming to exploit space quickly, particularly in the wide areas where their striker often drifts to create a temporary wide overload.

Off the ball, Lazio will also be keen to force Roma out wide, operating a semi-passive press, putting Roma’s players under pressure but primarily focussing on limiting their control in central areas.

Roma, by contrast, are expected to line up in a fluid 3-4-3, a formation that allows them to control the tempo while keeping a compact defensive shape.

It is this defence, which is likely to be Claudio Ranieri’s primary emphasis, making sure to restrict Lazio’s quick vertical movement using a low-mid block.

Upon winning the ball back, Roma tend to look to bypass the press using direct long balls, often out wide where they will aim to isolate Lazio’s full backs.

🏁 Lazio v Roma Ref Watch

• Referee: Simone Sozza

  Fouls	Yellow Cards	Red Cards
  23.00	3.38	0.08

• Stats are on a per 90 basis and are taken from 2024/25 Serie A games (13 total).

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.