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Roma v Lazio
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Kick Off: Sunday 5th January at 19:45
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Competition: Serie A
With one of Europe’s most contentious derbies to look forward to, it would be difficult to imagine a much more eye-catching storyline for the Derby della Capitale.
Roma who are now onto their 3rd manager of the season will have to overturn form if they’re to stop Lazio who’ve won 7 of their last 10 but had their weaknesses exposed against Inter in an embarrassing 6-0 thrashing in front of their own fans.
The last 3 league meetings between these sides have given rise to 23 yellow cards and 3 red cards whilst the last 5 have averaged 28.4 fouls committed.
⭐ Roma v Lazio Best Bet
Averaging 1.56 fouls per 90 minutes, Rovella has been penalised many a time this season but we think that in a heated fixture like this, backing the Italian international to receive a booking seems the smarter play.
In five of Lazio’s last six Serie A clashes with Roma, at least four Lazio players have been booked, with a large portion of those occurring in a congested and fired-up midfield.
Rovella has already received seven yellow cards in the league, making him Serie A’s most-booked player despite playing just 12.8 90s. He’s also been cautioned twice in Europa League matches.
Starting on the left side of central midfield, Rovella will have the tough task of managing both Dybala and Koné, Roma’s top foul-drawers who average 3.83 and 3.15 fouls won per 90 minutes, respectively.
🟢 Roma v Lazio #WhatOddsPaddy
Dybala has fired off 2 or more shots on goal on 5 occasions this season. Notably including his last 2 games which could represent a change influenced by Roma appointing Claudio Ranieri.
Castellanos’ average of 1.84 shots on target per 90 is the most of any player in Serie A with the Argentine forward having tested the keeper at least twice on 6 occasions already.
Roma have averaged 4.28 shots on target conceded per game, meanwhile Lazio average 2.95 but with this game as unpredictable as it is, we could see a more open game with chances at both ends.
This would particularly be the case if either side were to go down to 10 men – a very real prospect given this fixture has seen 6 red cards in its last 6 showings.
👕 Roma v Lazio Predicted XI
🔍 Roma v Lazio Players to Watch
🟤 Alexis Saelemaekers
Saelemaekers has averaged 1.09 fouls per 90 minutes this season, committing fouls in 5 of his 8 appearances this season, notably including his three toughest matches against Juventus, Milan, and Atalanta.
Saelemaekers is expected to be played out of position as a right-wing-back against Lazio. This role will require him to defend against both the overlapping fullback Tavares and the skillful winger Zaccagni.
These two are Lazio’s most effective foul-winners, with Zaccagni drawing an average of 3.05 fouls per 90 and Tavares contributing 2.22, making Saelemaekers’ task even more difficult.
🔵 Valentin Castellanos
Castellanos has been a prolific shooter this season, averaging 4.43 shots per 90 minutes in Serie A—the third-most in the league. He has sent off at least 4 in 10 of his 14 league starts, demonstrating remarkable consistency.
In Europa League action, the Argentine forward has fired off 4 shots in two of his three starts, falling short only when substituted early against Porto.
Roma’s defensive frailties add to Castellanos’ appeal, conceding an average of 11.9 shots per game. Fourteen players have already managed to take 4 shots against Roma this season, 9 of which were in Serie A matches.
🔵 Nuno Tavares
Since arriving at Lazio, Tavares has quickly established himself as one of the standout signings of the summer, with his £6 million obligation to purchase already looking like a bargain.
Known for his attacking contributions, he often causes significant problems for opposing defenders, making him a prime candidate in the fouls-drawn market.
Tavares has won at least one foul in 11 of his 12 Serie A appearances for Lazio, averaging an impressive 2.22 fouls drawn per 90 minutes. This figure ranks him second among Lazio players, behind only Zaccagni.
📂 Roma v Lazio Cheat Sheet
Andy’s Bet Club is the best place for Football Betting Predictions. We’ve got this weekend’s Serie A slate covered with Serie A Football Tips and European Football Predictions.
We’ve got plenty more in store for Sunday’s footballing action, look out for our Fulham v Ipswich Betting Tips or our Liverpool v Man United Match Preview.
Aside from match previews, we’ve also got a Sunday European Football Accumulator, a Cross-League Super Acca, and a Match Result and BTTS Acca.
💻 Roma v Lazio Form and Tactics
- Lazio are expected to set up in a 4-2-3-1 with an emphasis on transitional play and long passing.
- They rank 3rd for accurate long balls per match and 6th for accurate crosses which is largely explained by their massive 6’4” centre-forward, Castellanos.
- Roma will utilise a 3-4-3, aiming to create numerical advantages on the wings using the overlapping runs of Saelemaekers and Angelino.
- Playing just behind Dobvyk, Dybala will likely be their main attacking threat, whilst also linking the attack to the midfield by drifting into open spaces as required.
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🏁 Roma v Lazio Ref Watch
- Referee: Marco Guida
- Marco Guida is the referee unfortunate enough to have been appointed for this clash as a more experienced referee was no doubt sought out.
- Over the course of his career, he’s averaged a pretty high 4.59 yellow cards and 0.24 red cards per game. Both of these figures are likely to be augmented in this heated affair.
- He also averages 27.09 fouls per 90 which combined with the number of fouls there tend to be in clashes between these sides, could slow play down quite substantially if it’s constantly stopping and starting.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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