Bristol City v Middlesbrough

Bristol City simply continued their loose defensive ways in their last outing against Swansea. They have lost 26 points from winning positions now in the 21/22 Championship season, by far and away the worst record in the league. It feels as though there is a real problem for The Robins at the moment and Nigel Pearson has suggested that perhaps the heart of his players isn’t quite there.

Pearson is under increasing pressure now and it is not difficult to see why. Regardless of results, which have been poor, their performance data actually has them bottom of the Championship for expected points over the last four matches. It is still highly unlikely that City will be relegated but there are few signs of progress on the pitch. Attacking output is decreasing over time, whilst defensive mistakes are not reducing. Bristol City also have the worst performance to odds ratio in the league over the last four games so it is not simply a tough run of fixtures that is their downfall.

This fixture is a tough one though. Middlesbrough come to Ashton Gate off the back of a very comfortable home win over Derby. Even including that match Derby are still much better off with Bristol Ciy in recent performance data. The fact that Boro will arrive to Bristol City with their January acquisitions finding some form with Aaron Connolly scoring his first for Boro at the weekend just adds to the weight behind Chris Wilder’s men.

Boro sit 4th in non-penalty xG performance data with the third best ratio of creating chances in the league. Against a notoriously porous defence that has conceded in each of its 11 matches this certainly points towards Middlesbrough goals.

It is a difficult choice whether to back Over 2.5 goals or a Middlesbrough win. On balance, with Nigel Pearson’s comments in the press designed to provoke a reaction from his players I will side with Over 2.5 goals at Evens knowing that this could also cover a heavy Middlesbrough win as well.

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QPR v Hull

There is plenty of concern around QPR right now. The results are beginning to fall away and the enterprising performances we have been used to seeing from Mark Warburton’s side are practically a thing of the past.

Recently QPR just can’t create enough chances. They have drawn consecutive blanks now in the league, even with Ilias Chair back from AFCON, but, in truth, their chance creation issues stretch back further than that. They have been averaging 0.89xG per 90 for their last eight games now and Warburton may have to make some adjustments to re-find that edge.

Hull put in a gutsy display against Sheffield United and undoubtedly they will be happy with the point from that match. Arveladze has seemingly moved to close up his defence as they were beginning to look a bit loose at the back. Whilst they were still very fortunate to keep a clean sheet (The Blades fired off over 20 shots) it will still give The Tigers a lift knowing that they were able to withstand one of the most potent attacks in the league.

The pattern of this match is obvious to predict. QPR will have a lot of the ball and it will be up to them to break Hull Cty down. The Rs will need both Chris WIllock and Ilias Chair working well together and one of their key forwards to find form for this to be a comfortable home win.

For a bet though the angle should be to expect fewer than 3 goals in the game. This has actually clicked in a remarkable 81% of Hull’s away games so far this season and with QPR low on confidence I suspect they would be happy with a narrow home victory just to get something on the board.

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Derby v Peterborough

A turgid 0-0 draw was played out between Peterborough and Reading in midweek which hints at the mindset of clubs at the bottom of the Championship at the moment.Perhaps it isn’t just the bottom of the Championship actually as 3 of the 5 midweek matches ended 0-0, and all 5 went under 2.5 goals.

Take any window of matches you like from this season and the two clubs that come bottom of the league for open play chances created are Derby and Peterborough. It is particularly bad recently with Peterborough creating 0.38xG per 90, just over a third of a goal per match.

Looking at the forward options in both squads there is a real lack of quality in both attacks. Neither team has a forward that has broken 10 goals yet in the league this season and Posh’s sale of Siriki Dembele in January has made them weaker at this stage.

Though neither defence is currently in its best form either, Derby conceded four on Saturday, the two attacks cannot be trusted to take advantage of that fact to score a multitude of goals. Even at home Derby set out to frustrate and control games rather than attack. They do average over a goal a game at home, but Posh only add an average of 0.53 goals per game on the road, which combined together is under 2 goals in this scenario. With the performance data also backing this up (Derby averaging less than 1xG at home) opposing goals appears to be the correct play.

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Sheffield United v Swansea

As alluded to in the previous match preview The Blades were unfortunate not to continue their winning run against Hull in midweek. Despite peppering the Hull goal and racking up over 2xG in the match they found themselves on the wrong side of variance and failed to hit the back of the net.

Still, this did them no harm in terms of their performance data. They are now the most in-form team in the Championship in terms of expected points over the last four matches. They are substantially outperforming their expectations in terms of bookmaker odds as well so that demonstrates that they are potentially playing even better than the bookmakers have given them credit for.

Swansea have seen results pick up recently with wins against Blackburn and Bristol City. However, those were home wins, their away form has shown very little sign of improvement. They have failed to score in 3 out of their last 4 away matches, losing the last two comfortably. They have underperformed in comparison to bookmaker odds as well, despite those couple of wins, so we have a team in flying form against a team struggling here.

Michael Ofabemi has started scoring goals for Swans but the balance of the forward line is totally under question for Russell Martin now. Joel Piroe, who started the season so well in front of goal, has lost his mojo somewhat and with Jamie Paterson now back in the fold there are options to tinker, but they will be facing a very pragmatic and well drilled Sheffield United outfit.

There will definitely be chances for Sheffield United in this match; it is simply a question of whether they will be clinical enough to take them. I am happy to take the chance that they will so that is the recommended play in this match.

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