Sheffield United v Stoke
Though I have not been totally convinced by the Blades’ recent performances, the results have continued to be positive. Their FA Cup away win with a much rotated side at Millwall just showed their mentality and the confidence that they have in the squad. Indeed, stretching this back to the last Championship game against QPR, they wobbled but still produced a last-minute equaliser to salvage a point.
This current version of the Blades probably won’t blow Stoke away. Their generation of chances as valued by xG has decreased somewhat in recent weeks, possibly coinciding with the unavailability of Oli McBurnie to the Sheffield United attack. Paul Heckingbottom will be keen to have McBurnie available again as soon as possible but without him they have remained pretty tight defensively.
The last team to score more than once against United was Burnley on the 5th November, albeit that was in a 5-2 win for Blades. In their current form, Stoke are not the team to overly concern them from an attacking perspective either.
Though they struck three times away from home at Hartlepool in the FA Cup at the weekend they haven’t managed to find the net in the two previous Championship games against Burnley and Preston. What’s worse is that Liam Delap, whom Alex Neil had eventually entrusted to be the main thrust of the attack, has been recalled by Manchester City and then sent straight out to last opponents Preston North End. This is perhaps confirmation of the distrust that City had of how Delap was being used at Stoke and his lack of development there.
This leaves Alex Neil temporarily short of options in the central forward position. Dwight Gayle has found no form whatsoever this season and regardless has always been questionable as a lone striker. Jacob Brown scored on Sunday but has been used recently as a wing back and Tyrese Campbell has failed to return to the heights of his form pre-injury. It is tough to see where the goals will come from for Stoke and that’s why backing Sheffield United comes a bit easier in this match.
Middlesbrough v Millwall
Michael Carrick’s Boro side have become something of the entertainers in the Championship since the former Manchester United man was installed at the helm. The xG increase has been fairly substantial and the style of play has been pleasing to watch for the Boro faithful.
However, this has come at the detriment of a bit of solidity. This was ruthlessly exposed by a quality Premier League outfit in Brighton last week. Though Millwall are nowhere near that level, there were definitely things from that Brighton performance, as well as the Burnley defeat a few weeks ago, that a smart coach like Gary Rowett will be able to analyze and adopt for his Millwall gameplan.
Both teams have scored in every Middlesbrough match since 8th November, that is a seven game streak. Middlesbrough have won five of those matches still so it goes to show the confidence of the side going forwards at the moment and it is also encouraging for this bet that it also means that they are unlikely to change their balance too much as it is ultimately working in their favour. Chuba Akpom is having a career season and despite reported interest from elsewhere he is definitely available for this match. Indeed, Middlesbrough have moved to further increase their forward options with the quality loan of Cameron Archer from Aston Villa joining this week.
Millwall have really managed to diversify their attacking output as well this season. Whilst still posing a big threat from set pieces, they also have a fluid front four. This is being built around the talent of Zian Flemming who has demonstrated the ability to score goals but has also started prompting chances for the willing runners of Tom Bradshaw, Tyler Burey and Andreas Voglsammer.
I think that getting close to even money about both teams notching here is excellent value.
Bristol City v Birmingham City
The boos will continue to ring around Ashton Gate if the Robins are not particularly convincing against a team in and around them in the bottom half of the Championship table.
Nigel Pearson won’t hide at all and the strength of feeling around his job won’t affect how he approaches this match. The problem for Pearson at Bristol City this season has been an apparent inability to balance the side correctly. Too often are Bristol City caught open defensively, but then when they are tight in defence they lose potency going forwards.
Birmingham under John Eustace have been slightly more attacking than we are used to seeing from them but are still a long way from being an open side. With both sides winless in the Championship for a few matches in a row there is reason to believe that both will be fairly circumspect in their play, at least for the first half.
Only a third of Birmingham’s away matches have gone over 2.5 goals so far this season with the average total goals in those games sitting below 2 per match. Bristol City’s home matches have hardly been full of goals either, with an average of only 2.15 goals being scored at Ashton Gate in the Championship.
There is transfer speculation surrounding Antoine Semenyo at Bristol City but it seems likely that he will continue to be available for this match. The fact that Semenyo has notched only four goals this terms highlights two things: that the chances haven’t been as free-flowing for the Robins as compared to last season but also that the attacking roles haven’t necessarily been settled. It is great to have options, but the rotation of Tommy Conway, Nakhi Wells, Semenyo, Weimann and Martin doesn’t seem to have worked, and neither has playing too many of them at the same time.
Birmingham’s three man central defence should be well matched to take care of the usual Bristol City tactics as well. I fully expect, as long as neither manager comes out with a surprise, that there is a potential for a bit of a stalemate on the pitch and that could mean a low-scoring encounter.
Preston v Norwich
Preston are making some moves in the transfer market to try and bolster their attacking prowess. They are currently missing Emil Riis, though he hasn’t been having a particularly strong season regardless, which means that the Lilywhites are relying on an ageing Ched Evans to lead the line. Evans has actually done ok in this role to be fair, but the lack of depth is really hurting North End in back-to-back games or in the last 20 minutes of games.
Bringing in Liam Delap does make sense, despite his rawness as displayed at Stoke for the first half of the season. However, in Preston’s position they know that it is impossible to buy the full package so they will have to see if they can coach some more effectiveness out of the talented Man City academy product. His move may come too soon to start this match, but he is match fit so could feature in some way.
Delap joins Tom Cannon as a potential “all-star PL2” strike partnership. The Everton loanee is on his first loan out and that is often a tricky loan to excel in, but no doubt he does also have potential, and a good scoring record in the PL2 U21 league.
All of which does not convince that Ryan Lowe is particularly confident in his team’s goalscoring potential as it stands. Despite walloping Blackburn in the first game back after the World Cup break, things have looked about as bleak as their white home shirts as an attacking force. Of course, the flipside of that is the continuing excellence in the defence. Many observers of Preston will comment on the balance of the midfield perhaps not being quite right and I believe this is probably accurate in that there is probably a bit more defensive cover than attacking potential.
Norwich have obviously just appointed David Wagner as their new head coach. Wagner was known at Huddersfield for his pragmatic approach so I am not imagining that they will suddenly go all-out attack in his first Championship game in charge.
In the FA Cup tie defeat to Blackburn Rovers it was a pretty familiar tale of possession dominance but an inability to create good scoring chances meant that they drew another blank. On paper the resources look to be there for Norwich, but there is a real lack of confidence now to drive at the heart of the opposition. Teemu Pukki isn’t getting the type of chances that we associate him with and the balance of the forward line with Josh Sargent just hasn’t fired consistently enough for the Canaries.
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