Aalesund v Bodø/Glimt

These two teams met last month and Bodø/Glimt won 2-0 in the reverse fixture up at Aspmyra Stadion. That loss is the only defeat Aalesund have suffered in their last 8 league games and manager Lars Arne Nilsen has built a solid team here which will not roll over easily. That is unlike the previous versions of Aalesund in this division, and they look set for a comfortable midtable finishing position this year. They are still quite a limited team though and not quite good enough vs the top teams in the Eliteserien. Just look through their four defeats and those were against Viking, Lillestrøm, Molde & Bodø/Glimt. They failed to score a goal in any of those fixtures and that could be their major problem here too. Aalesund recently sold key striker Sigurd Haugen to Danish club Aarhus for £1.35m. He was actually the fifth highest scorer in the division this season and until the transfer window opens early next week Aalesund won’t be able to replace him.

Bodø/Glimt head into this match suddenly in fine form. They smashed Jerv 5-0 last week and then on Wednesday night battered Northern Irish side Linfield 8-0 in the Champions League. Glimt were even able to take off key men early in that contest such was the ease of their victory. The defending Eliteserien Champions now have a two legged tie vs Lithuanian outfit Zalgiris on the horizon but for this match in Aalesund they shouldn’t be affected too much. They know they need to keep winning in order to maintain the pressure on Molde and Lillestrøm ahead of them. Glimt have won 5 of their last 6 league matches and scored 17 goals during this run. Key men such as Amahl Pellegrino and Ulrik Saltnes are just starting to find some form and it seems like Glimt have recently worked out how to unlock stubborn defences, of which they will face similar type of opposition here.

Aalesund are no mugs and will make life difficult for Bodø/Glimt, but it is the visitors who possess the extra quality and class needed to win a game like this. Aalesund are not the most free scoring side and without Sigurd Haugen may well fire complete blanks here. Glimt probably only need one or two goals to win this fixture, so it seems perfectly acceptable to back them on the nose at 1.75 to prevail. This feels like a good time to keep riding their hot form.

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Ham Kam v Kristiansund

Kristiansund’s appalling season continued on Wednesday night when they lost 0-2 away to Sandefjord. Incredibly, it was their 12th defeat in 14 league games this year and they are rooted on just 2 points without a victory. Kristiansund are not quite as bad as their results might suggest but they have a continual massive problem in defence where their 31 conceded is the most in the division. Kristiansund on average concede a whopping 2.21 goals per game which is simply unsustainable. It feels like that match vs Sandefjord was maybe their last chance to get back into any sort of survival challenge. They already blew a 2-0 lead vs Odd last weekend and had to settle for a 2-2 draw. KBK are also the joint lowest scoring team and simply don’t have enough firepower. The season ending injury to Moses Mawa hasn’t helped them, but he was hardly an elite striker either. They have lost all 8 away matches this season although Ham Kam are one of the few teams KBK have obtained points against. The reverse fixture ended 2-2.

The home side have been draw specialists in the Eliteserien this season with an incredible 9 of their 15 matches ending all square. That is unusual in a league such as this which traditionally has quite a low draw rate due to teams being more aggressive and opting to try and push for victory. Ham Kam are content to sometimes take the draw on offer and gradually accumulate points. They are 12th in the table but have a fairly comfortable gap to the automatic relegation places as things stand. Jakob Michelsen’s men are on a run of four straight under 2.5 goal matches and their games average exactly 2.5 goals which is the second lowest in the league. They aren’t coached in a negative fashion but do possess a strong 3-4-3 system which can easily be converted into a stubborn 5-4-1. It is unlikely Ham Kam will operate very defensively here though in what is a very winnable fixture. They have a strong trio of physical attacking players Eriksen, Enkerud and Kirkevold who could feast on a tired defence which only played three days ago.

Ham Kam are priced at 1.80 to win this match which does look generous. You could do far worse than backing them to prevail here because this has all the hallmarks of a comfortable home victory. However, I think over 2.5 is a better play. Kristiansund have absolutely nothing to lose now and I expect them to go down swinging in every match. They have no value in just playing for draws or being defensive. Their 0-2 loss to Sandefjord in midweek ended a run of six straight over 2.5 matches but that game should never have ended under, there were so many chances at both ends. Ham Kam have only kept one clean sheet in their last ten matches and there is every chance KBK could hit the back of the net. Something like 2-1 or 3-1 Ham Kam feels about right here and I like the chances of goals, especially considering how awful the Kristiansund defence has been. The reverse fixture was also a wild and high scoring 2-2 draw with several chances at both ends.

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Tromsø v Sandefjord

Whenever Sandefjord are playing the immediate first place to look for a bet is to take over 2.5 goals. That is the exact market which needs to be attacked here again. An incredible 13 out of their 15 league games have all ended with at least three goals this season. Their 2-0 midweek victory vs Kristiansund was one of the few times one of their fixtures ended under 2.5. By sheer default and variation that had to happen at some stage though. The xG numbers in that fixture were 2.40 vs 2.17 so it was a freak under 2.5 game with several big chances at both ends. Sandefjord have done really well to get themselves to 20 points this season and they are currently as high as 8th place. Their defence is not very good though and 29 goals conceded is the third worst record out of any team. They have the second worst xGA per 90 mins (1.90) and their backline is legitimately bad. The visitors do however have a strong away record winning 5 out of 8 games and have the tactical counter-attacking style to succeed on the road.

I personally see Tromsø winning this match but there is no doubt they are a very poor favourite at odds of just 1.44. There is no way you could trust them vs one of the better away teams in the division. Tromsø themselves have only won two games of football all season and have been very disappointing recently, losing easily 1-5 at Molde and 0-3 at Rosenborg. They will be more comfortable here at home and should have a physical advantage after having all week to prepare for the fixture. Sandefjord might have some tired legs on the field after playing just three days ago which is why I would lean towards the home side winning. This Tromsø team has only kept one clean sheet all season though and the likes of Mohamed Ofkir and Alexander Ruud Tveter will fancy their chances against that sort of defending. Both sides should go for the victory because on paper this is a very winnable fixture for each team. 

Both teams to score is a great looking price at 1.80 for this match but I prefer taking over 2.5 goals. There is the chance that Sandefjord have little left in their tank after a midweek match and a long flight north that Tromsø cover this goal line on their own. It is realistic to suggest that both teams score to make this over 2.5 hit though. A 2-1 or 3-1 victory either way or even a 2-2 draw seems very possible. There should be several chances at both ends in what is likely to be an open contest.

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