Georgia v Scotland

Scotland travel to Georgia in their first competitive game since qualifying for Euro 2024 with two games to spare after Spain narrowly edged out Norway 1-0. Steve Clarke’s men come into this on the back of two very tough friendlies against England and France with their competitive trip to Spain sandwiched in between, losing all three.  

In last month’s international break, Georgia scored a whopping 12 goals across two games against Cyprus and Thailand, all while not conceding a single goal.

Scotland are without a few key names with skipper Andy Robertson out after his shoulder injury against Spain. Fellow fullbacks Kieran Tierney and Aaron Hickey were both also left out of Clarke’s squad due to injury which has seen young left back Josh Doig called up again.

Another notable miss is goalkeeper Angus Gunn who has been spectacular since switching allegiances from England, keeping four clean sheets in the Euro 2024 qualifiers and only conceding three goals. Che Adams has also dropped out the squad for Hearts captain Lawrence Shankland.  

The reverse fixture of this clash at Hampden in June will live long in the memories of the Tartan Army who suffered lengthy delays due to heavy rainfall, with the game being delayed over an hour and a half in miserable conditions.

Callum McGregor opened the scoring in the opening minutes before Scott McTominay doubled the advantage in the second half, with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia putting a penalty over the bar in stoppage time. 

These qualifiers may be over for Georgia, but it is still possible for Steve Clarke’s side to go on and win the group. This article will look at the standout selections for this qualifier in Tbilisi as an injury-ridden Scotland try to carve out a win at a venue they have failed to in their last two visits. 

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Georgia v Scotland Cheat Sheet

This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

The research in this piece has been pulled together using the Scotland v Georgia Cheat Sheet. There’s a wide range of stats to choose from, be it player passes or team fouls. There are also referee statistics in the middle of the sheet too.

You can find Georgia v Scotland stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.

Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…

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⚽ Goals stats: Scots may be through, but they won’t take their foot off the gas

Although the chances are slim, Scotland are still playing for top spot in Group A, but are heavily reliant on Spain slipping up against Cyprus or Georgia. Scotland will likely need to take maximum points from their last two games and currently trail by seven goals on goal difference, so they really need to go for it here. 

Scotland have scored 12 goals in this campaign, averaging two goals scored per match whilst only conceding three over their six games. Georgia are averaging 1.5 goals scored per game and have leaked 13 goals over their six matches, averaging 2.17 conceded per game. 

Scott McTominay has cemented himself as a Scotland hero during this campaign, netting an impressive six times in six games for the Scots and netting in four out of six matches, not including his perfectly-struck free kick against Spain which was harshly chalked off by VAR. McTominay is playing with confidence every time he puts on the Scotland shirt and has been given the licence to go forward by Steve Clarke due to his physical presence and shooting ability. 

Georgia are clearly capable of scoring goals too after their goal-fest of an international break last month. Scotland have lost in their last two trips to Tbilisi and Georgia’s superstar Kvaratskhelia is capable of doing damage to the depleted Scotland defence. However, the Scotland side that travel to Georgia are very different to the 2015 squad and can go into this full of confidence after a superb campaign. 

We’ve picked out three selections that look great value based on form. Over 1.5 goals is value at 1.30, and over 2.5 seems to be generously priced at 2.0. Scotland are very backable at 2.20 for the win, but 1.25 in the double chance market could be a shrewd option for a bet builder.

Predictions:

⚽ Scott McTominay to score or assist @ 3.30

⚽ Over 1.5 goals @ 1.30

🏆 Scotland double chance @ 1.25

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🎯 Shooting stats: McTominay and McGinn likely to be key, but watch out for Kvaratskhelia

McTominay leads the Scotland charts for total attempts at goal throughout these qualifiers, with 14 in total across six games while hitting the target seven times. This means the 6ft 3in striker has hit the target 1.17 times per game and is always a threat from set pieces and crosses into the box from Scotland’s wing backs.

Georgia have conceded an average of 5.7 shots on target per game and the last time these sides met in June, Scotland hit the target three times with McTominay chipping in with two of those efforts. McTominay may well be on free kick duty after his rocket of a set piece against Spain, which gives him that extra chance to find the target. 

The other standout in the Scotland team for attempts on goal is McTominay’s midfield partner, John McGinn. The Aston Villa skipper has had six more shots than third-placed Che Adams for attempts at goal, with McGinn averaging two shots per game. Aside from both games against Spain, McGinn has attempted at least two shots in each qualifying game including four shots against Georgia at Hampden. 

With all the injuries surrounding the Scotland camp, these two are likely to start and play the majority of the 90 as two of Scotland’s key players. 

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is undoubtedly Georgia’s star man, and he loves a pop at goal. The Georgian forward has the sixth most attempts at goal across the whole Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, with 23 attempts in six games, averaging 3.8 shots each match.

Kvaratskhelia is also averaging 3.6 shots per game across all competitions this season. At the weekend, he came off the bench in the 54th minute for Napoli and registered four shots in just 36 minutes.

Predictions:

🎯 Scott McTominay to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.73

🚀 John McGinn to have 2+ shots @ 1.25

🚀 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to have 3+ shots @ 1.36

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🟨 Card stats: Patterson has a tricky assignment, whilst Georgia’s Kochorashvili is the man to watch

Referee Aleksandar Stavrev has averaged four yellow cards per game this season. Both of these sides are averaging 2.5 cards per game in the Euro 2024 qualifiers, so we could see a few cards shown on Thursday evening. 

A potential standout matchup here is Nathan Patterson v Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Patterson will likely feature at right wing back with Aaron Hickey out injured. Kvaratskhelia was pivotal in guiding Napoli to their first title last season since Diego Maradona’s represented the club. Kvaratskhelia is a tricky winger, averaging 1.8 fouls drawn per game in Euro 2024 qualifiers and 2.0 in all competitions. 

With Aaron Hickey being the number one right back choice, Nathan Patterson has only been given 72 minutes, coming off the bench four times. Patterson picked up yellow cards in both matches last international break, against Spain and France, showing he is capable of picking up cards against quality opponents and Kvaratskhelia certainly goes into that bracket. 

Georgian midfielder Giorgi Kochorashvili has carved his way into the national side in recent fixtures. With the injury of his team-mate Otar Kiteishvili, he will be likely to take a place in the starting lineup here. Kochorashvili played 45 minutes against Thailand last month, committing two fouls in his side’s 8-0 victory.

He also played the whole game against Cyprus and avoided a booking despite three fouls. The midfielder has averaged 2.5 fouls per game for his country in qualifiers and will be up against the likes of John McGinn who averages 2.2 fouls drawn per game. 

These two players are our standouts for fouls and cards here, but we would wait for lineups before placing any bets on them.

Predictions:

🟨 Nathan Patterson to be Shown a Card @ 5.0

🟨 Giorgi Kochorashvili to be Shown a Card @ 4.50

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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