In this article…
Sheffield United v Everton
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Date: 2nd September
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Competition: Premier League
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Kick off: 12:30
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Watch live: TNT Sports 1
Saturday’s early kick-off sees a clash between joint-bottom-of-the-table sides: Sheffield United and Everton. Both teams will be hoping to get their first point in their respective 2023/24 campaigns, having already suffered three defeats each. In fact, the Toffees will be hoping to score their first goal of this season, having offered no end product going forward so far.
We’ve taken a deep dive into the stats leading up to this game, and have designed two bet builders based on what we see as value in the market. Level 1 is a humble 3/1 and Level 2 is for those after longer odds at 11/1.
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The Blades robbed of a point against the treble winners?
Some would argue that, although being dominated in xG, corners, shots, and possession, the Blades deserved a point against City last week. Their late equaliser was quickly made redundant by Rodri’s winner in the 88th. When all is said and done, City deserved the win.
They racked up a staggering 3.6 xG from 30 shots at goal, putting nine on targe with the Blades only recording 0.67 xG and six total shots. That being said, United’s man between the sticks, Wes Foderingham, had a fantastic game, pulling off seven saves.
Sheffield United team news
Similarly to last week, the Blades are currently suffering from a large amount of injuries and are expected to have eight of their players unavailable for selection. However, George Baldock is now back in action for the Blades and the Greece international carries an important presence in defence for Paul Heckingbottom’s men.
Despite having had his defensive partnership of Jack Robinson and John Egan come under fire, it is expected that Heckingbottom will play the same 5-3-2 formation as last week.
Everton running in toffee
Everton have got off to a slow start this year, having scored no goals in their opening three games. This is not for a lack of trying, as they have posted a total of 5.52 expected goals across these matches, clearly, something is not clicking up top for Sean Dyche.
Surprisingly, the Toffees have been dominating the corner count, averaging the joint-third highest in the league so far, just behind Brighton and Manchester United. The Toffees have seen an average of 7.67 corners for so far this season, offering some value on Everton corners.
Everton team news
Perhaps one reason for the Toffees’ underwhelming performance so far is their seemingly constant string of injuries. Key starters Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Dwight McNeil are injured and due to miss Saturday’s bout. While Alex Iwobi sealed a deadline day move to Fulham.
This means that new signing Arnaut Danjuma seems nailed on for the striker position, especially after a fiery performance last weekend. The Dutch international took five shots, with three on target, against Wolves last week, racking up an impressive 0.51 xG before bagging a late winner in a 2-1 Carabao Cup escape at Doncaster Rovers in midweek.
Sheffield United v Everton Cheat Sheet
Here is our Cheat Sheet for the game, it holds all of the key stats and data that you’ll need to make informed bet builder picks on Paddy Power. It includes all of the markets including new ones like Goalkeeper Saves and Fouls Won.
We have used it to help make our bet builder predictions. Have a read through and you’ll be able to make some well-informed predictions for yourself if you like other selections more.
To make the most of our bet builder tips you can sign up to Paddy Power below. Stake up to £10 on your preferred option, and get £50 in free bet builders no matter what the result.
ABC’s 3/1 Sheff Utd v Everton bet builder
⚽ Arnaut Danjuma to have 1+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.57
With Danjuma looking nailed on to start upfront this game, we can expect to see him get involved in just as much action as last week. Despite starting only one game, and coming off the bench in the other two, Danjuma has averaged three shots per game this season with 1.33 on target.
This is consistent with his previous averages. For the second half of last season Danjuma was coming off the bench for Spurs, averaging 2.44 shots and 1.22 shots on target, displaying his threat in the Premier League. When looking at his average in La Liga, these averages rise to three and 1.37 respectively.
In La Liga he racked up a very high amount of expected goals too, averaging 0.63 xG per match. For context, this is higher than Mohamed Salah’s career average. With confidence in front of goal, high shooting form, and strong xG history, a shot on target priced at 1.57 is amazing value.
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🚩 Over 4.5 Everton corners
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Odds: 1.60
“Off the top of my head, 27-30% of goals are scored from set pieces, so we think, why would you not use that as an option to score?” – Sean Dyche via The Athletic.
Since 2016/17, only Pep Guardiola’s and Jurgen Klopp’s sides have scored more goals from corners in the Premier League than those under Dyche’s management. Sheffield United are also used to conceding corners, with their opponents averaging over seven corners per game this season and over five corners across the last calendar year. The vast majority of which came against Championship opposition.
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🛑 Benie Traore to commit 1+ fouls
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Odds: 1.30
So far this season Benie Traore has committed a whopping eight fouls. Five of these came from his debut game against Crystal Palace. However, he is yet to receive a card – a highly rare feat to pull off whilst committing five in a game. It is safe to say he is a master of the dark arts.
The Ivorian international has a high career average of 1.56 fouls per game, removing the possibility of recency bias for this selection. Level 1 has Traore to only commit one foul in the game against the Blades, while level 2 requires two.
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🛑 Idrissa Gueye to commit 1+ fouls
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Odds: 1.14
When you think of Everton players committing fouls, Idrissa Gueye sticks out like a sore thumb. With a career average of 1.63 fouls committed per game, and a current season average of 2.16 (including pre-season), there is evidence to support this.
He is also likely to be in a competitive matchup with Vinicius Souza, who drew 1.25 fouls per game last season, and Gustavo Hamer, who drew 0.91 in 2022/23. Combining this with his high fouling history makes for an enticing pick for one foul in level 1 and two fouls in level 2.
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ABC’s 11/1 Sheffield Utd v Everton bet builder
⚽ Arnaut Danjuma to have 1+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.57
Winning matches against sides around them in the table has been a key theme of Dyche’s successful survival bids in the Premier League. The trip to Bramall Lane fits into that and the Toffees will likely have greater territory than they have had in their outings so far.
Without being too insulting, United have looked like a cup side playing Premier League opposition as a one-off in their opening trio, and with more time spent in the final third, a Danjuma shot on target seems likely with the variety of ranges and angles he can test the goalkeeper from.
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🚩 Everton over 4.5 corners
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Odds: 1.60
That territory we mentioned in the first leg of bet builder level 2 will likely result in a high shot count, but with the Blades being organised behind the ball they should block plenty of those attempts. Deflections and tackles in their defensive third could lead to corners along with Foderingham’s reflexes.
With Dyche happy to target that area of the game to increase Everton’s hopes of survival this season.
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🛑 Benie Traore to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 2.38
Traore has been one of the brighter sparks for the Blades so far and will have been disappointed not to get on the scoresheet in the 2-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest in gameweek two. Paul Heckingbottom is clearly getting buy-in from his squad and the new signings, which has been apparent in Traore’s work rate.
However, if the Blades are condemned to a fourth straight defeat to begin the campaign, frustration may boil over for Traore who has already been a prolific fouler in the early part of the season.
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🛑 Idrissa Gueye to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 1.83
Gus Hamer’s direct opponent may well be an enticing candidate for fouls across the course of the season and Idrissa Gueye does not need too much encouragement. The Senegalese midfielder has become more of an enforcer as his career has gone on and the physical test that the Blades pose could bring out that side of him. Certainly one to keep an eye on for two or more fouls to bump this bet builder up to a double-figure price.
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