Southampton have 4 points from 3 matches and have only lost to Tottenham so far, competing in high scoring matches and playing entertaining football. Manchester United fans will hope their win against Liverpool can ignite their season and let them forget about the losses to Brighton and Brentford. This match will perhaps be the greatest sign of whether Manchester United have more to come or whether their struggles will continue against weaker teams.
Southampton v Manchester United Bet Builder Tips
Under 3.5 Goals
Although Southampton and Manchester United have been involved in matches totalling 22 goals, they have only totalled 15.1 xG. Southampton have scored 5 goals this season from just 2.3 xG. Similarly, both teams have conceded 7 goals while only conceding 3.8 xG and 4.9 xG respectively. Because of this massive overperformance in xG, the stats are skewed for how many goals matches with Southampton and Manchester United include so we can’t expect these sorts of numbers to continue.
In fact, despite Southampton matches having the 3rd most goals of any team this season, according to the xG they should have the 18th most. With Manchester United’s more solid defensive performance against Liverpool in the last match, Ten Hag will be desperate to build on this and I would expect to see Manchester United try and take a more solid approach to this match. Although the goal stats suggest this will be high scoring, xG stats suggest it will be a lower scoring match and therefore I expect under 3.5 goals in this match.
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Prediction: Under 3.5 Goals
Bruno Fernandes to have 1+ Shot on Target
As Ten Hag continues to bench Ronaldo, unhappy with his attitude, Bruno Fernandes can come back to his old self for Manchester United and play a key role for this team. Bruno averaged 0.84 shots on target per 90 last season and if Manchester United can build on that Liverpool win, he will have further chances for shots on target this match. Southampton allowed 8 shots on target against Spurs and with United being another team that should be of that top level, I would expect a high number of shots on target for United in this match.
All of Spurs’ shots against Southampton came from central areas and Bruno has one of the highest average shooting distances in Europe, so if Southampton sit back he can still hit shots on target. Furthermore, with Ronaldo being left out the United starting eleven becoming a common occurrence, Bruno is back on penalties and this furthers his chances of a shot on target in this match.
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Prediction: Bruno Fernandes to have 1+ Shot on Target
Scott McTominay to be Shown a Card
No team has received more cards this season than Manchester United, 11 so far. Southampton’s most fouled player so far this season is Djenepo followed by Lavia. Djenepo has been playing as a left back and is one of the best dribblers in Southampton’s side so McTominay may have to shuffle across during the match to help cover these areas. Lavia plays opposite McTominay, so in a pressing situation McTominay will be in position to foul Lavia. Only 3 teams have attempted more dribbles this season than Southampton and as a holding midfielder, McTominay will make tackles and fouls in this match which will likely see him be carded.
I am backing McTominay to be carded as he will most likely start, however, with the signing of Casemiro, McTominay could be benched in which case I would back Casemiro for a card instead.
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Prediction: Scott McTominay to be Shown a Card
Kyle Walker-Peters to have 1+ Shot
Kyle Walker-Peters is one of the most attacking full-backs in the league, he effectively plays as a wing-back. Last season he only scored once but took 27 shots, averaging 0.92 shots per 90. In the last match between the teams he had a shot and is one of Southampton’s best attacking players out wide. He has had 4 shots so far this season averaging 1.22 shots per 90 so can be dangerous in this match. 54% of attacks against Manchester United this season have come down the right hand side and 1.12 xG has been created from attacks down the right against Manchester United so far this season so plenty of shots come from this area of the pitch.
If Southampton are to attack and create chances in this game it will likely be on Walker-Peters’ side of the pitch and as a player who likes to have a shot, I am backing him to have a shot in this match.
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Predictions: Kyle Walker-Peters to have 1+ Shot
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How to watch Southampton v Manchester United in the Premier League?
📅 When is Southampton v Manchester United? / Saturday, 27th August 2022, 12:30
🏟 Where is Southampton v Manchester United? / St Mary’s Stadium (Southampton)
📺 What TV channel is Southampton v Manchester United on? / BT Sport 1
