Stockport to Win @ 1.80 on bet365
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Stockport v Cambridge
The opening months of the season are always a steep learning curve as our pre-season stances are ironed out. With that in mind, it is crucial not to go overboard in the opening few weeks even though prices can appear more generous given the lack of a data sample for the bookies to base their odds on.
Having said all of that, there is a price in League One this weekend that we cannot ignore, and such value on this team at home may not resurface for the rest of the season if the match plays out as we expect.
Stockport County are 1.80 to make the perfect start to life back in the third tier, after winning the League Two title last season, when they host Cambridge United on Saturday. Arguably the banker of the opening EFL weekend – and here is why we think that is…
Cambridge appointed Garry Monk at the start of March, following Neil Harris’ departure for Millwall, and their successful Easter Bank Holiday did the heavy lifting as they narrowly stayed up. Monk oversaw the last 11 games, with the two wins coming on Good Friday and Easter Monday, the other nine saw four draws and five losses (0.91 PPG across the 11) as the club finished on 48 points – four points above the drop.
They’re summer business has been unconvincing in terms of improving the squad, and odds of 2.37 on them to be relegated to League Two seem very fair.
Stockport may benefit from flying under the radar heading into this season, as they won promotion to the third tier last term alongside Wrexham (as well as Mansfield and Crawley). They scored more, conceded less and comfortably beat Wrexham to the League Two title and in our eyes have bolstered their squad significantly this summer.
They’ve been ruthless in letting stalwarts of recent years depart, with Paddy Madden, Antoni Sarcevic and Ryan Croasdale leaving for League Two sides. While catching the eye with additions that would not look out of place at more obvious League One promotion-pushing sides, be it: Jack Diamond, Sam Hughes, Jayden Fevrier, Michael Mellon and most recently Louie Barry.
William Hill have Stockport as short as 1.40 to finish in the top half this season, and they’ll quietly have loftier ambitions than that.
County posted 2.17 PPG and scored 2.08 goals per game at home last season and can demonstrate the quality gap between them and a Cambridge side that are overwhelmingly likely to be looking over their shoulders this term, on Saturday. At a rocking Edgeley Park that will host its first game of League One football since 2010.
Cambridge also won just four of 23 away league games last term – picking up just 17 points on their travels. Pre-season results are rarely a good indicator of where a team are at, but – they did lose 6-0 to League Two Colchester United on Saturday (conceding five in the opening 38 minutes).
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