Libertad v Cerro Porteño
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Sunday 26th June – 0:15PM KO
The likely Paraguayan Primera title decider on Saturday night takes place at Libertad’s La Huerta stadium where they are unbeaten this season in the league having won nine of their ten games so far. Should the Gumarelo avoid defeat they will pick up their 22nd league title and coach Daniel Garnero would have his seventh championship equalling Aurelio González and just one behind the legendary Luis Cubilla.
The leaders received good news during the week with Camilo Mayada back in full training, they can also count on Hernesto Caballero and Alexander Barboza who return from a 2-game and 3-game suspension respectively. With the Copa Libertadores on the horizon there is always the possibility some players get rotated, but with the team’s strength in depth that shouldn’t make much difference to overall quality. Antonio Bareiro could be in line for a first league start, he’s been used sparingly from the bench since his ACL injury suffered a year ago and traditionally has a good record in this fixture.
Chiqui Arce rested players in midweek as Cerro Porteño struggled to breakdown lowly General Caballero. They needed the inspiration of Alfio Oviedo who scored a second-half hattrick, but will be without the 26 year old this weekend because his parent club is Libertad. The chosen strike partnership will be key to try and get past a Libertad backline that has only conceded twice in their last nine Primera games. However, there are only four goals between the available forwards Marcelo Moreno Martins, Fernando Romero and Fernando Ovelar so far this term.
The last meeting was a crushing 4-0 victory for Cerro who surprised their rivals by lining up in a 3-5-2 formation. The azulgrana were also triumphant the fixture before in the 2021 Clausura but using their regular 4-4-2. One constant from those two games was the central midfield partnership between former Libertad midfielder Ángel Lucena and Colombian Rafael Carrascal. Those two will have to be on the top of their game to give their side a chance.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.91 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Club Olimpia v 12 de Octubre
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Sunday 26th June – 9:30PM KO
Olimpia are back at the Manuel Ferreira for their final home game of the season, with nothing in play Julio César Cáceres is looking to rest a few players ahead of their Sudamericana tie with Atlético Goianiense.
Despite the likely changes, it shouldn’t affect El Decano going forward – they have averaged 3 goals per game in their last five matches with goals coming from 10 different players. All but one of those five games has seen BTTS land as the side struggles to keep clean sheets. With central defender Luis Zárate suspended and holding midfielder and captain Richard Ortiz injured they will certainly have some vulnerability at the back.
12 de Octubre have nothing to play for in the Apertura, but relegation is decided over the average points totals from the previous three seasons and so they need to be careful not to slip further down the standings (currently 4th bottom). Their midweek win against Resistencia, a 1-0 win thanks to a late Danilo Ortiz header, ended a six-game winless run and four matches without a goal. It was also their first away victory since November 2021.
Interestingly the tejedores often rise to the occasion in this fixture, winning one and drawing two of their last five matches against Olimpia. The 0-0 earlier in the season was something of an anomaly with games between these two going Over 2.5 goals in six of the last eight matches since 12 de Octubre’s return to Primera in 2020. You have to go back to August 2014 to the last time the fixture went Unders at the Manuel Ferreira, a 2-0 win to Olimpia.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 1.90 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Nacional v Guaraní
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Sunday 26th June -11:45PM KO
Two teams with an eye on 2023 Copa Sudamericana qualification go head-to-head at the Arsenio Erico following disappointing draws in the previous fixture. Both Nacional and Guaraní fell behind early to their opponents who were later reduced to ten men, and while they both equalized they couldn’t capitalize on numerical advantage to secure three points.
The contest will pit the top scorers in the division against each other with Facundo Bruera (12) suiting up for the home side and Fernando Fernández (13) on the visiting team. They’ve been on equally good form of late, scoring five goals in the last six games.
The aurinegro travel across town in better form than their rivals as they are on a six-game unbeaten run, winning their last three at home. In contrast, the Academia have only secured maximum points in one of their last five a 3-0 win over Tacuary. However, the head-to-head works more in Nacional’s favour, they have avoided defeat in their last six picking up two wins while the points were shared on four occasions.
With matches involving these teams going over 2.5 on average (Guaraní 2.55, Nacional 2.8) that seems the best value compared to the odds on BTTS.
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Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals, 2.0 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Sportivo Ameliano vs Guaireña
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Monday 27th June -10:00PM KO
It has been a rough six months for Sportivo Ameliano who are bottom and have conceded more goals than any other side in Primera. But they go into this game against Guaireña having kept defeat at bay for two games running with impressive draws to Nacional and Guaraní. Midfielder Jorge Sanguina impressed with two goals in two games but will be suspended following his sending off in the previous game. That said the strike partnership of Alex Arce and Pablo Zeballos has clicked into gear in the last few matches.
Their rivals Guaireña seem to be suffering from a post-Sudamericana hangover, losing to both General Caballero and Libertad before a lacklustre 0-0 with Tacuary earlier in the week. Goals have been hard to come by for the team from Villarrica with nine scoreless matches chalking up just 18 goals in 20 games. Although they have struggled in front of goal, they usually do well against opposition lower down the table, in their seven games against the bottom four this season the Albiceleste have managed nine goals and always scored when they were the visitor.
The nominal hosts Ameliano (the game will be played on neutral ground) have been finding the net themselves recently, scoring in six of their last seven matches. Overall BTTS has landed in just over half of their games this year (11/20) and more recently 5 out of 7.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.80 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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