Alianza Petrolera v Millonarios

It’s been a Jekyll and Hyde season for Millonarios. In their first thirteen games of the season, the Bogotá giants were so good that one leading journalist tweeted: ‘Millonarios are too strong to be playing in the Colombian league.’ How this comment has come back to haunt him. Ever since, Millonarios have crumbled into a pathetic mess. After their last win on 21 September against Junior, Millonarios needed just one more victory to seal their place in the last eight. With nine games still to play, it was a foregone conclusion. Yet here we are going into the final round of games with Millonarios teetering on the edge of absolute disaster.

With six defeats in their last seven games in which they have mustered just three goals, Millonarios’ self-implosion has been spectacular. Against Independiente Medellin midweek, a home draw would have left Millos in a strong position to qualify with just one game left. But they conceded a sloppy goal in injury time to crash to yet another defeat. Manager Alberto Gamero looks at his wits end. The fans feel desolate. And team captain Macalister Silva was so desperate and frustrated after the midweek loss that he appeared alongside Gamero in the post-match press conference and launched into a wild and emotional speech that ended up infuriating fans even further. It was a perfect illustration of the unruly and nerve-rattling performances that Macalister and his teammates have been serving up on the pitch for weeks.

But they have one final chance. Their strong goal difference means that a draw should probably be enough to qualify. And with Alianza Petrolera already eliminated and with nothing to play for, a draw seems to be a fair call here. But a better option is unders. Millonarios have forgotten how to break teams down and can’t score. With the pressure cranked up to the maximum, Millonarios just need to get the job done. Don’t expect a classic.

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Nacional v Equidad

Equidad are here to spoil the party. While the Bogota side still have a very slim chance of sneaking into the decisive top eight to qualify for the next stage of the Colombian title race, they’d need a fairly extraordinary series of results to fall their way and, considering their poor goal difference, it’s highly improbable they’ll make it. Therefore, the plan here is to simply sign off this season on a high.

Nacional, on the other hand, must win. A draw could, theoretically, be enough, but with 11 teams chasing just six qualifying spots, and Nacional starting the day outside the top eight, a home win is the order of the day. Failure to make the top 8 would be a disaster for Colombia’s biggest team, who are also the current champions. The Medellin side have stuttered all season and are now under their third manager of the campaign. Brazilian coach Paulo Autuori only took over two weeks ago and has yet to taste victory. But a home win here makes a lot of sense.

Nacional have designated this game as “fan day” with a whole afternoon of special events lined up, which will ensure a full house for the game. There will be no Equidad fans present. Secondly, midfielder Sebastian Gomez was back at training on Friday meaning he will start the game after shaking off an eye injury. That’s huge for Nacional as Gomez is back to his best as the number one midfielder in the league. Without him they struggled. With him back, they are different side. Furthermore, they have won three of their last four games on their travels. While Nacional have clearly underperformed this season and a big squad renovation is expected for 2023, Nacional are still good value for the win here.

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