Åsane v Sogndal

Throughout the whole season I have maintained that Åsane are not a good team. They are in 12th position safely on 17 points but are lucky that there are some really poor sides down at the bottom. In terms of numbers and metrics, Åsane continue to rank terribly and their 0-6 defeat vs Sandnes last week would have done them no favours either. Åsane have the worst xGA average per 90 mins of any side (1.87). They aren’t much better at the other end of the field either ranking third worse for xG (18.08). They have certainly overachieved with their points total and have been fortunate to have scored goals at opportunistic and timely moments of games. Their previous home match resulted in a 3-2 victory over hopeless Skeid, but they were 0-2 down in that fixture and on another day might easily have lost. Åsane have a mixed home record with 3 wins, 4 defeats and one draw.

Sogndal travel here in fairly good form. They are in 5th position and had a crazy 4-3 victory vs Stabaek last week. They were 4-0 up in that fixture but nearly blew the lead and had to be content with a tight success. That match rather sums up Sogndal this season. They are full of goals but tend to concede far too many. Since the opening two rounds of the year Tore Andre Flo’s men have only kept a couple of clean sheets but they do possess strong scoring power. They have overachieved their xG of 23.52 by nearly 10 goals (32 scored) but there are some players in the squad who have individual qualities you’d expect them to over perform, such as Jonatan Ingi Jonsson and Vladimir Thor Ingimundarson. Sogndal have a mixed away record this season with only 2 victories in 7 games. That is probably why they are as big as 2.10 to win. This could look a big price come the final whistle because I expect them to comfortably prevail.

Because Åsane’s defence has such poor metrics and concedes a lot of goals I always love to take the opposition team’s total goals when facing them. Sogndal to net over 1.5 goals in this match looks a great bet at 1.67. They have more than enough offensive firepower for this bet to land and taking this selection simplifies betting where we aren’t relying on them to win or to cover any handicaps. Åsane have a habit of getting some unusual results so I would rather take the match result out of the equation and just go down the Sogndal team total route.

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Ranheim v Stjørdals-Blink

Ranheim are now up as high as 2nd place, and they have been one of the best teams in the OBOS Ligaen this season. They rank 8th best on xG per 90 mins (1.54) and 5th best on xG (22.56). There is absolutely no doubt they are a major contender to finish second behind Brann and gain promotion either automatically or via the playoffs. Ranheim are a semi-professional club from Trondheim but did have two years of Eliteserien experience just a few seasons ago and were expected to go well this year. They have players in their squad such as midfielder Mads Reginiussen and winger Eirik Tonne who are too good for OBOS Ligaen level. No team have more over 2.5 matches than Ranheim with 13 of their 16 fixtures containing at least three goals. Their fixtures have been goal machines and both teams have also scored in 9 of their last 10 fixtures.

This might be a good opportunity for Ranheim to keep a rare clean sheet though because Stjørdals-Blink are in a huge crisis travelling here. I keep mentioning this every week, but it is a well-known fact they’ve had some serious financial issues which has resulted in six regular first team players leaving the club due to pay cuts. The club has been saved by introducing some emergency measures and their sheer existence now looks more assured. However, on the field they are desperately struggling and look almost a guarantee to be relegated this season. They have lost their last five consecutive league games and won just a single fixture all year. Blinks have the joint worst defensive record out of any team and conceded a massive 36 goals in 16 games. At the other end of the field, they’ve only scored 14 times which is by far the lowest total of any team.
Stjørdals-Blink are an automatic fade whoever they play against right now, but the bookmakers have wised up to this. Ranheim are only 1.22 to win here so we have to look at other markets for better value. Taking the home team on a -1 handicap at 1.73 makes sense because they should dominate the contest. It also covers the 2-0 scoreline which is very much in play here. Blinks are toothless and there is a good chance Ranheim will simply dominate and win to nil. The away side have failed to net in 4 of their last 6 games and on both of those occasions they only scored very late consolations. Even if the away side do score, Ranheim should still be capable of covering this handicap and recording a comfortable victory.

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Raufoss v Sandnes

This has all the makings of a high scoring match between two teams who have been netting a lot of goals recently. Raufoss have been in great form and won 6 of their last 8 league games. Their only real blemish in this period was a 0-5 loss to Brann, but we can’t hold that against them too much because Brann have been operating on a different planet this season. Raufoss played in midweek on Wednesday night and surprisingly beat Fredrikstad 4-0 away from home. That was a real statement victory for Raufoss, who are a criminally underrated team and have every chance of making the playoffs. Their raw metrics are very good, and they rank fourth best for xG per 90 mins (1.73) which is impressive considering the firepower in this division. At the other end of the field Raufoss have the second best xG at home per match (1.17). They are well run by manager Christian Johnsen in a 4-3-3 system, and he has been at the club for 5 years.

Travelling here are a red hot Sandnes outfit who have won four straight matches and scored 14 goals in those respective fixtures. They absolutely smashed Åsane 6-0 last week and the game was done by half time. Sandnes were in total cruise control and are clearly a very confident team right now. They are up to joint second in the table and might start to believe this is their year to get promoted. Expectations are always quite high for a club who are fully professional. The minimum objective for Sandnes will be to make the playoffs. Their 30 goals scored is one of the most of any team in the division and in Martin Ramsland and Jostein Ekeland they have two reliable attackers who know how to hit the back of the net. At the other end of the field Sandnes have an xGA average of 1.61 per 90 mins which is quite high. They cannot be relied upon as much defensively. 

Over 2.5 goals are an obvious best bet for this match. The last 8 consecutive Sandnes games have contained at least three goals and so have the last 6 straight Raufoss fixtures. Both teams have been in serious scoring form recently and this should be an end to end type game containing a lot of chances and goals. This is a straightforward and obvious selection but sometimes these ones are the best.

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