In this article…
Sunderland v Hull
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Kick Off: Friday 19th January at 20:00
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
As you’ve come to expect, we have every bit of EFL coverage you could possibly need here on ABC, starting with this Friday night clash between play-off hopefuls Sunderland and Hull. It’s not just this game however, as we also have EFL betting tips, EFL accumulator tips from across all three divisions and even bespoke bet builder stats for every Championship game.
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Everyone heading to this match at the Stadium of Light will be very aware of the stakes for both sides.
Both teams have recently occupied the final play-off place in the league table but both have hit a spot of turbulence in their seasons, just as some other clubs are pushing on and potentially taking those play-off spots further away from them.
The home faithful will need to see a competent display, with a positive result at the end of it to start having some belief in Michael Beale’s appointment and the overall project at the club. With no real sign of January recruitment to help the Black Cats at this stage, it is down to the head coach and staff to try and coax some improvement out of the current players.
Improvement is evident with Hull under Liam Rosenior. However, there has been something of a regression in results in recent weeks. Performance levels have dropped off slightly, but the introduction of Fabio Carvalho and rumours of further recruitment should be a soothing tonic to all involved.
The play-off hunt will be back on for whichever team emerges victorious here, whilst it begins to look like an outside chance for the losers.
There is some good data from across the season about these two teams that can be used to construct some pointers for a bet builder.
Sunderland v Hull Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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You can find Sunderland v Hull match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off and you can check out the top bet builder sites to get your bets on.
⚽️ Match stats: Sunderland slipping from the top echelon
There was a time, a few weeks ago, that Sunderland actually sat top of the Championship for expected points in some models. Above Leicester, Ipswich, Southampton and Leeds, which, considering the calibre and results of that top four this season, is very impressive.
Part of the reason for that would’ve been game state, eg Sunderland were behind for more time than those clubs and perhaps took advantage of that, but, still there was a certain amount of dominance in the way the Black Cats played their football in the Championship.
However, there has been a definite drop-off in that in recent weeks. Sunderland have dropped under those four teams mentioned in the expected points model for the season, and indeed, Beale’s tenure so far, only five matches, sees Sunderland in 18th in that model.
Hull have dropped off a little bit in recent weeks, but over that same sample size they are 8th for expected points, with average xG production and average xG against over that time, which is actually much better than their record for goals in that period. This suggests that their performances perhaps haven’t dropped off as much as their results would suggest.
Bringing this all together, it is difficult to support Sunderland at an odds-on price. Though their home record, both from a performance and results perspective is fairly strong, they haven’t convinced of late. Hull are still a strong opponent who may be going through a little bit of variance right now where their performances haven’t changed a great deal, but results aren’t going their way.
Both teams are above average in their attacking data this season, Sunderland having the edge in the amount that they create. This suggests that chances can be found in this match, if both sides can find their finishing.
Predictions:
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.73
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80
🎯 Shooting stats: Tufan could be undervalued as Hull change in attack
The changes are being rung at Hull, some enforced, some by choice, but only Ozan Tufan remains from the most selected Hull front four so far this season.
Liam Delap is out for a number of weeks, Scott Twine is now at Bristol City, and Aaron Connolly should be missing from this match as well. Therefore the onus will be on Tufan, as well as Fabio Carvalho, Jason Lokilo, and Billy Sharp to replace that goal threat.
Ozan Tufan is averaging close to one shot on target per game for Hull in the Championship this season, but with the changes around him, Tufan could be expected to step up and improve his contributions.
From a Sunderland perspective, Jack Clarke is obviously a well found option in the market but is the dominant force in the Sunderland attack. However, a bet can’t be recommended at the prices as he is as short as 1.33 to have a shot on target, which actually happens only once a match on average across the season, and shots have generally decreased for Sunderland under Beale, as mentioned above.
Predictions:
⚽ Ozan Tufan to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.91
⚽ Ozan Tufan to have 2+ shots on target @ 5.50
⛳ Corners stats: Sunderland the rightful corner favourites for this match
Sunderland are a strong home side in many ways. The possession, territory, and attacking intent of the Black Cats means that they are averaging more corners than their opponents at the Stadium of Light.
Sunderland average 6.15 corners per match at home, which isn’t particularly high in the competition, and concede 4.31, so they average over 1.5 corners more than their opponents.
Hull are a low volume corner team in general. Their matches average under 10 corners, and they concede more away from home than at home.
The Tigers average only 4.08 corners per match away from home, but concede 5.77 corners in the same matches, again, an average of around 1.5 corners more.
Predictions:
⚽ Sunderland corner match bet @ 1.57
⚽ Over 5.5 Sunderland corners @ 1.91
🛑 Fouls stats: Sharp and Ballard battle to produce fouls
There are some live angles in the fouls market that are worth considering as additions to a bet builder.
One of Hull’s new additions, Billy Sharp, may seem short for a foul, but he has averaged well over a foul per game over his career, and especially in his latter Championship days this pushed to almost two per match. He is value for any number of fouls, and he should be in an interesting battle with Dan Ballard and Luke O’Nien.
Ballard is a very big price for a single foul. He has conceded at least one foul in eight of his last 13 Championship matches, ten fouls in total. The added chances of that battle emerging with Billy Sharp gives a nice edge to the bet as well.
There is another angle that appeals as well. Lewie Coyle is likely to be directly up against Jack Clarke and is a decent price for at least one foul. Coyle averages less than a foul per 90, but Clarke is an exceptional case.
Predictions:
⚽ Billy Sharp to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.40
⚽ Billy Sharp to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.1
⚽ Lewie Coyle to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.57
⚽ Dan Ballard to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.87
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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