The main talking point for Sunderland in recent weeks has been how their squad has been depleted with AFCON starting. Regis Le Bris has lost six key players from his side, which is a real setback. However, the Black Cats showed their resilience against Brighton last time out, as they secured a point at the Amex Stadium in a goalless stalemate.

Considering Bart Verbruggen had to make six crucial saves, the hosts would have settled with the point in the end - Sunderland looked a real threat in the final third, almost as if they had their strongest XI available. 

The Black Cats will relish a return to their home stadium, where they still have their unbeaten run intact since the start of the season. Their record of five wins and three draws is incredibly impressive, especially considering they have taken points from Newcastle, Aston Villa and Arsenal.

Leeds’ away form has been a stark contrast to that, which certainly doesn’t bode well for them here. They have taken just four points from their eight away matches - one draw, one win against Wolves, who sit bottom of the league, and six losses. 

However, Daniel Farke’s side have been in excellent form coming into this clash, unbeaten in their last four league games. That run started with an impressive 3-1 victory over Chelsea, before Leeds again scored three times, this time against Liverpool. Last time out, they beat Crystal Palace 4-1 at Elland Road, which has lifted them six points above the relegation zone. 

With 11 goals scored in their last four matches alone, Leeds have every reason to approach this match with confidence, as they hope to pull off an upset against a high-flying Sunderland outfit. Both teams will fancy their chances of taking three points, which lends itself to backing goals.

After being discarded from Everton’s squad over the summer, not many would have expected Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be in such good form at the moment, but the 28-year-old finds himself in a serious purple patch. The Englishman has six goals in his last five appearances, and rumours have begun to emerge over a potential call-up to the England squad for the 2026 World Cup. Realistically, if he can maintain his current output, there is no reason why not. 

Calvert-Lewin has been incredibly difficult to contain in recent weeks, and has been a real reason for Leeds’ success. He bagged a brace against Crystal Palace last time out, after scoring the equalising goal against Brentford in the game prior. Calvert-Lewin has landed this selection in tough matchups against the likes of Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool, and will hope to keep his form up against Sunderland this weekend.

In addition to his goalscoring exploits, Calvert-Lewin is averaging 1.48 fouls per 90 this season, and has racked up five infringements in his last three starts alone. Leeds often play route one football, looking to find their target man with long balls, which bring him into duels with the opposition centre backs. 

Dan Ballard will have the tough task of trying to contain Calvert-Lewin on Sunday afternoon, but the centre back has been a standout performer at the back for Sunderland in the top flight. He is an incredibly physical presence in defence, and will relish the chance to duel against a player like Calvert-Lewin. 

Ballard is averaging 1.37 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and has landed this selection in nine of his 11 starts overall. He is incredibly clever when it comes to buying soft free-kicks, and that should come into effect against the Leeds attackers.

With Noah Sadiki linking up with the DR Congo squad for AFCON, Sunderland have been left with a void to fill in midfield. Lutsharel Geertruida was the man to plug that gap against Brighton, featuring alongside Granit Xhaka in the double pivot, more advanced than his usual position in the backline. 

Credit to him though, he performed well against Brighton, registering two tackles as he played the full 90. Prior to that game against the Seagulls, Geertruida had started just five games in the Premier League, and committed three fouls. He registered just the one foul against Brighton, but did have quite a bit more defensive work to get through in midfield, rather than being shielded in the back three. 

With Geertruida still adapting to his new role, paired with the fact he hasn’t got too many minutes under his belt this season, fouls become a target and this price appeals.

Regis Le Bris has been quite adaptable with his setups this season, and has usually opted for a trio of centre backs against the top sides, and a back four in other games. He should go for the latter tactical setup against Leeds this weekend, with Nordi Mukiele at fullback. 

The former Bayer Leverkusen man has adapted seamlessly to life in the Premier League, and has been a standout performer for the Black Cats this term. He has registered a total of nine shots across all competitions this season - all of which have come at the Stadium of Light. Mukiele is averaging 1.14 shots per 90 on home turf this season, and has registered an effort in seven of his eight matches overall. 

Although he doesn’t tend to be particularly accurate, he does tend to pick up some advanced positions when playing at fullback, and managed to score against Wolves from open play back in October.

Ethan Ampadu is another player who looks well-priced to register an effort here. Unlike Nordi Mukiele, Ampadu has displayed a notable uptick in shots when playing away - he is averaging 0.38 shots per 90 at Elland Road, compared to 0.87 shots per 90 on the road. Ampadu has landed this bet in five of his seven games overall, including one shot against Man City, and two efforts against Brentford on his last away outing. 

The Welshman isn’t shy to try his luck from distance, which bodes well against a side like Sunderland. The Black Cats can be quite pragmatic without the ball, opting to sit back and invite speculative efforts from distance. If Ampadu can work himself a couple of yards around the edge of the box, he is likely to pull the trigger. Sunderland rank 3rd-worst for total shots conceded in the Premier League this campaign, albeit with the 2nd-highest average distance from goal.