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Andy Robson
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Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots Form & Tactics
Both teams finished with 14-3 records in the regular season, although you could argue that the Seahawks had a far harder season. The Patriots' strength of schedule was ranked 32nd of 32 teams, while the Seahawks were fourth, thanks in part to the strength in their division. The Seahawks won the bye, so they have only played two playoff games, but in the 49ers and Rams, they’ve been top opposition, whereas the Patriots’ path has arguably been easier, especially given the Broncos' loss of Bo Nix to injury.
The data suggests that are two good teams. In terms of offensive DVOA, the Patriots are ranked fifth, and the Seahawks eighth, and defensively, the Seahawks sit at the top, with the Patriots in 12th.
However, one of my favourite metrics is EPA per play. On offense, that ranks the Patriots at number one in the NFL, and the Seahawks down in 15th. In passing, the Pats are top, and the Seahawks eighth, and the rush puts New England 20th and the Seahawks down as low as 29th.
Defensively, EPA per play ranked the Seahawks second only to the Texans in the regular season, with the Patriots just outside the top 10, in 11th. It’s the Seahawks ability against the rush, ranking one, compared to eighth against the pass, that really stands out. The Patriots stand 11th against the pass and 16th against the run.
Given the Patriots relatively easy playoff opponents, it’s hard to gauge where they’re at, but the Seahawks victory over the Rams in the Conference Championship game was a mix of fantastic defense, good special teams and some inspired playcalling on offense. It very much looked like Super Bowl-winning play.
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