ABC logo
Swansea v Man City Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Swansea v Man City Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Tuesday 28 October, 20254 min read
Avatar

ABC Editorial Team

The ABC Editorial Team have a combined Sports Journalism experience of 20+ years. They love to crunch the numbers for all betting predictions, meticulously finding value in each selection. Football experts in their own right, they each bring specialists sports and leagues to the table. Whether it be football, horse racing, boxing, darts, or NFL, our team is equipped to bring you the most insightful and valuable betting tips around.

It wasn't long ago that Manchester City were the lords of the EFL Cup, winning it in 2016 and then four times in a row between 2018-2021.

However, there has been only one quarter-final since then for Pep Guardiola’s men, and 2013 champions Swansea will be the team looking to keep that sequence going by knocking them out on Wednesday night.

These Swansea v Man City Betting Stats also offer further insight ahead of Wednesday's EFL Cup clash.

These recommended Best Bet Builder Bookmakers are worth a look for Wednesday's action, too.


Swansea v Man City Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Swansea v Man City
  • EFL Cup
  • 19:45
4 Selections @ 4.12

Over 5.5 Man City Corners

We know what type of match we are preparing for here. Man City are going to be ball-dominant and will set about attempting to break down a compact Swansea defence.

The nature of Swansea's natural style, plus the fact that they are at home, should mean that Man City will also have some opportunities to win the ball and attack against a less organised defence, as well which is a much more dangerous attack.

Man City are often big corner winners when facing inferior opposition. They are averaging just over five corners per match this season, but their record in the cups against lower league opposition in the last couple of seasons is ridiculously strong. I have supplied the list below:

Opponents (corners won)

  • Plymouth 20

  • Leyton Orient 10

  • Salford 6

  • Watford 10

  • Luton 2

  • Huddersfield 11

  • Sheff Utd 11

  • Bristol City 3

There are clearly a couple of exceptions there, but generally, their dominance turns into a big corner count, and that's what we are hoping for here again.

Man City to have 7+ Shots on Target

We have already covered what type of match we are expecting here, but it is also worth looking at those matches against non-Premier League clubs in the domestic cup competitions again to assess what level of shots on target Man City usually generate in this type of match.

Opponent (Man City Shots on Target)

  • Plymouth 9

  • Leyton Orient 10

  • Salford 10

  • Watford 8

  • Luton 15

  • Huddersfield 7

  • Sheff Utd 4

  • Bristol City 6

We have to go back to the 2022/23 season to find the last time Man City failed to hit at least seven shots on target in this scenario.

They are averaging 5.46 shots on target this season, but hit seven against Villarreal and Everton recently, and have done so five times already this season.

Swansea conceded eight shots on target to Southampton and seven to Leicester in back-to-back Championship matches recently, so there is form there against recent PL teams to hit this line, albeit those teams are not performing particularly well in the Championship this season.

Nico Gonzalez to have 1+ Shots

Along with corner winning, I would expect Man City to fire off a number of shots, and whilst the forward players will likely dominate, the pattern of the match will likely allow for midfielders to either break into the box or shoot from the edge of the box.

Nico Gonzalez can do both of those things and has enough of a record of shooting to make it very likely that he will take at least one shot here. His Premier League shot map demonstrates his pattern of shooting from central areas around the edge of the box.

He is a likely starter and will also be likely to play the vast majority of minutes, if not the full match.

He averages 1.22 shots per 90 this season, and he took one shot in the last round of the EFL Cup when he started against Huddersfield Town.

Joshua Key to Commit 1+ Fouls

The Swansea right back isn't the Swansea player with the strongest fouls record. He averages 0.93 fouls per 90 over Swansea's last 30 matches.

However, the reason that I think he is a bet here is because of his likely opponent. Jeremy Doku is predicted to play on the left of Man City's attack, and there aren't many more reliable players for drawing fouls in the world game than the Belgian winger.

He has drawn an average of 3.05 fouls per 90 so far this season. Whilst not all of those will be committed by the opposition right-back, there is a strong chance that at least one will be. Indeed, Doku has a strong record of getting an opponent cautioned, as happened in the Champions League last week when he was fouled five times and Villarreal’s right back was shown a yellow card.

Key recently committed four fouls in a match against Leicester, who employ traditional wingers who run at their opponents in a similar way to Doku, so there is recent evidence of Key being in this situation and committing fouls.

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.

New customers only. Football BuildABet only. Odds of 1/1 or greater. 5 x £10 Bet tokens. Free Bet stakes not included in returns. Free Bets for Football BuildABets only. Free Bets non withdrawable. Free Bets expire after 30 days. Eligibility restrictions and further T&Cs apply. AD.

Live Now

Andy's Tips

Latest football and horse racing tips from Andy Robson and his team of experts.

bet365

bet365

Monday's World Cup Qualifying Double

  • World Cup Qualifying
  • Monday 17th November
  • 19:45

View selections

Join bet365

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.

📈 Swansea v Man City Form & Tactics

Swansea are a decent reflection of the EFL Championship as a whole this season. They started well and looked good in the early part of the season, but, in all honesty, the season has become a really inconsistent, unpredictable mid-table sort of season at this stage. The Swans are sitting 13th, with a won four, drawn four, and lost four record, with 12 goals scored and 12 conceded, it could not be a more midtable record.

Alan Sheehan’s men do at least come into this tie off the back of a morale-boosting home win. The 2-1 victory over Norwich did alleviate some pressure on Sheehan, and this is a bit of a free swing as well, with very few Swans fans expecting progression past this round.

Much of the fans’ ire stems from the fact that Swansea are 24th for expected goals for and 24th for big chances created; this is something obvious to observe from the stands. The fact that they are fifth for possession and sixth for accurate passes completed doesn’t matter a jot if it doesn’t result in chances.

Man City had a disappointing 0-1 defeat at Aston Villa on Sunday to build into this tie. Their recent EFL Cup record is not as strong as it was either, which could be an indication of the fact that City’s squad as a whole is perhaps not as strong as it was a few years ago.

City are still in the top five of the Premier League, though, and that weekend defeat was their first since August. With the expected level of rotation, it is not necessarily something that I would expect to have a huge impact on these players heading into the match.

City still enjoy having the ball; they have the highest number of accurate passes played in the league, and the fewest number of long passes too, and with that possession, they are the fourth highest xG generators and second highest big chance creators in the Premier League. They also have the third-best record of xG against in the league as well.


📔 Swansea v Man City Formation & Team News

Swansea tend to use a possession-dominant 4-2-3-1, but they won't be expecting to see as much of the ball as they usually do in the league when against Manchester City. There will be rotation from Swansea, with Andrew Fisher being their cup goalkeeper, Adam Idah should be in line for a start, with Malick Yalcouye and Manuel Benson also likely to return to the starting XI.

Pep Guardiola would often make a lot of changes, usually inside the confines of the 90 minutes, to make lots of tweaks to his shape as we go. Currently, we are seeing Manchester City often lineup in a 4-3-3 formation with a pair of #8s given licence to support a central forward, usually Erling Haaland. It is unlikely that Haaland will start here, though. He could do with a rest somewhere in the programme, and surely this seems an opportune time to provide that.

There should be rotation in many positions. Nico Gonzalez, Nico O’Reilly, Nathan Ake, Mateo Kovacic, and Rico Lewis are likely starters, whilst James Trafford is a definite in goal. Omar Marmoush could also start for the first time in a couple of months.


🔮 Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, as well as EFL Predictions for this week's football, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've got you covered for the midweek action, with an EFL Cup Acca, SPFL Acca, as well as Wolves v Chelsea Tips, Newcastle v Tottenham Betting Predictions, and Arsenal v Brighton Predictions.

There are also Both Teams to Score Predictions and Over 2.5 Goals Tips, as well as Next Manager To Be Sacked Predictions, with plenty of managerial casualties ahead of us this season.

If you're looking for a new bookie, we recommend the SkyBet Sign Up Offer and SBK New Customer Offer, as well as the Boylesport Sign Up Offer. There's a list of Free Bet Offers on the site, as well as a collection of the Best Odds Boosts.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


Emoji
Written by an Andy verified content writer

18+ please gamble responsibly.