Varberg v Djurgården          

While Varberg go into this fixture in poor form – only one win in six and two in the last nine competitive games – Djurgården are flying, unbeaten in 13 and fresh off a European mauling of APOEL Nicosia to put them within touching distance of qualification for the UEFA ECL.

Varberg have been a positive surprise since getting promoted to the Swedish Allsvenskan three seasons ago, never really flirting with relegation since. This season has been more of a struggle than the last couple, however they still sit seven points above Degerfors in the relegation playoff spot. With a fairly miserable record of late, though, they might need to improve their play to not get dragged into a scrap at the wrong end of the league. Having managed to produce results against teams around them in the table but really struggling against bigger sides, recently losing 3-0 to Hammarby and 4-0 to IFK Göteborg – both at home – the defensive record is the main worry. To date, they’ve conceded only four goals fewer than all of last season with 12 matches remaining. The underlying figures support the poor defensive record, with 30.2 xG conceded – the third worst in the division. Going forward, however, Varberg’s lack of quality has shown, only scoring 15 goals from 24 xG created.

Djurgården are competing at the other end of the table, switching top position with BK Häcken week on week. A mightily impressive run of form has made them title favourites but their rivals, namely Häcken and Hammarby, show no signs of slowing down either. DIF have a hectic schedule with European games coming thick and fast – playing every 3 days isn’t the norm for a club like this. They may need to get used to it though with a European Conference League group stage looming around the corner, assuming they don’t let a 3-0 first leg advantage slip in Cyprus next week. The squad is certainly capable, and with plenty of strength in depth, rotation shouldn’t be an issue. Everyone is contributing, from the backup goalkeeper to Kalle Holmberg, who only saw his first league start of the season last week against Kalmar.

The Stockholm side is scoring for fun at the moment, and with Varberg struggling to contain teams stronger than themselves, over 1.5 goals for the title challengers is a solid bet.

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IFK Värnamo v Elfsborg

While Värnamo have made significant improvements in recent times, not suffering defeat for three straight matches against top teams, Elfsborg are without a win in nine matches in all competitions.

After struggling initially, the hosts are now starting to find their feet in this division. Individual mistakes have been ironed out meaning less dangerous chances are conceded, leading to more solidity at the back. With a somewhat risky playing style which is easy on the eye – always looking to play out from the back despite being pressured by their opponents – it’s great to see them reaping their rewards of late. Taking five points off Hammarby, Djurgården and AIK while only conceding three goals should be lauded.

Marcus Antonsson is in scintillating form, netting six in as many matches of late. The front three with Zeljkovic and Johansson is of a high calibre and Värnamo can now be more confident of scoring in most matches – only title challengers Djurgården have kept them scoreless in the last six on two occasions. Their deep block is hard to penetrate and through quick forward passes they’re able to transition to dangerous attacking situations in a matter of seconds.

Elfsborg are going through a rough patch to say they least, not winning for nine consecutive matches in all competitions while being dumped out of the UECL in humiliating fashion by Molde. While being fairly effective in attack, scoring the fourth most goals in the division, their defensive record is simply not good enough. Always look like conceding, especially with a newly composed backline of late, and haven’t kept a clean sheet for 14 games running. Performances have been better recently, with the team notching three draws in a row against fairly strong opposition. Last week they were good value for a point but Norrköping deservedly equalised in the second half, making the final score 1-1. Unsurprisingly, the defensive work was questionable yet again, conceding from a long throw routine.

Having lost important players such as Oliver Zandén and Simon Olsson this summer makes things more difficult, especially the latter was highly influential and will be sorely missed. Having close to a clean bill of health is a positive though, and they’ll look to turn their season around here. Värnamo can counter to exploit gaps left by the shaky Elfsborg defense, while the away side will certainly not rest on their laurels. Only five points apart and both want a win, for entirely different

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