💎 Gem Bet: Rodri - Over 0.5 Shots @ 1.61 (Bet365)

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Rodri has been in and out of the Manchester City starting eleven this season as he tries to reach the high standards he set before his injury. 

He’s had three shots across his seven starts in the Premier League this season, one of which came from the bench against Tottenham when these sides met at the Etihad earlier in the season.

Rodri’s recent shot data is likely the reason as to why this has been priced generously, but i’m willing to take on the fact that he hasn’t had a shot in each of his last five Premier League appearances due to the context that City are faced with here. 

Tottenham sat really deep in their 2-0 win over City earlier in the season, limiting Guardiola’s side to 10 shots - four of which came from outside of the box, and allowed City to rack up seven corners.

This is important because these areas are where Rodri can be a real shot threat, his shot against Tottenham in the most recent head to head clash came from a corner and he likes to take aim from distance if he is going to strike. 

If we look at Rodri’s last full season in the Premier League (23/24), he had 62 shots across his 34 starts (1.90 per 90) with over half of these efforts coming from outside of the box. He scored eight goals in that season, so he can definitely contribute to City’s attacking play here. 

I think Rodri can act as a threat from distance and set pieces once again here as he faces up against a Tottenham side that will sit deep and allow City to have the ball in and around their penalty area - which should be enough to tempt Rodri into a long range effort, if he hasn’t already offered a shot threat from set pieces.