Fulham v Birmingham

It is a very rare occasion indeed when a team at any level heads into a match having scored thirteen goals in their previous two. It was always likely to be an open game against Bristol City with the visitors’ away record, Birmingham don’t carry the same loose record in their away games though.

Birmingham scraped a late point at Deepdale on Saturday after being the team behind in the chances created xG count until the 94th minute. The point may galvanise the squad, but it was still a very threadbare set of players that Lee Bowyer has to work with. However, the average number of goals in a Birmingham away match is 2.15, whereas Bristol City’s was over 3.

This fact leads me away from Fulham & O2.5 as a wager. Instead it is worth looking at the half-time markets. Fulham have led in 63% of their home matches at half-time and Birmingham are behind in 46% of their away matches. Taking into account that this is priced up as a fairly one-sided match by the layers that makes the 1.87 available for Fulham to be leading at half-time and winning at full-time look quite appealing.

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Preston v Sheff Utd

Through 80 minutes of their home game against Birmingham on Saturday Preston had continued their tradition of limiting the chances of an away side. They have averaged conceding 1.01 non-penalty xG through their home games so far but a late flurry from Birmingham derailed that somewhat. 

Sheffield United on their travels this season have conceded more chances than they have created (xG numbers of 12.04 vs 12.93). Their capitulation at Derby on Saturday came despite edging the xG in the match and creating more chances than the hosts. The big problem for Sheffield United was that they failed to take a single shot in the second half. Derby shut them down completely and there was no response from the Blades.

There will have been no time to really work on that before this fixture and Preston are solid enough defensively, especially at home, to make Blades try and get through them. Preston are also more likely to score than not judging by their home record so Blades are likely to have to score twice to win this match. The recommendation is to take the home side as a double chance.

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Hull v Blackburn

Hull were totally outclassed at home to Stoke on Sunday. Generating 0.27xG in the match and conceding 22 shots including three big chances will not have done their confidence any good. It is also the continuation of a concerning performance trend, the Tigers are now in the bottom three for xPts taking their last five matches as a sample size.

Blackburn may have won at the weekend but it was a performance bereft of any attacking merit. Rovers unleashed only four shots in the match totalling an xG of only 0.15. The fact that they were able to still come out on top is to be thankful for an astonishing defence. Six clean sheets in the last seven matches now for Blackburn and that 5-3-2 shape is stifling opponents, and potentially their own attacking, at the same time.

As a result of Hull’s struggles in attack and Blackburn’s defensive solidity the recommended wager is for at least one of the teams not to register on the scoresheet. The price for this seems generous seeing as it has landed in seven of Blackburn’s last eight matches.

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Reading v Luton

For quite some time it looked as though Reading were going to perform something unlikely on Saturday at MIddlesbrough. Instead the crushing disappointment that would’ve been felt when Matt Crooks’ header hit the Royals’ net in the 96th minute may leave the squad feeling even worse than after the Fulham thrashing.

The complete opposite is the case with Luton of course. This match may indeed be the litmus test of momentum in football. Does conceding/scoring a late winner make a difference in your next match? We will perhaps find out some truth to that here.

However, we tend to work in cold hard stats and form here and from that perspective Luton are the more likely winners. Their performance data, though still not as strong as at the beginning of the season, is still much better than Reading’s. The Hatters sit 8 places ahead of Reading in xPts when using the last 12 games as a sample size and 10 places ahead when assessing open play xG over that same period.

Psychologically and statistically Luton are the side to be with, however the added safety net of a draw no bet scenario adds some security to the position.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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