Blackburn v Middlesbrough

Blackburn’s return to the Sky cameras last Wednesday yielded a typically limp performance under the nation’s gaze. The media narrative built up around Rovers is that they are a free-scoring outfit but although they have scored a good number of goals, this narrative flatters them. They are the team that has the greatest overperformance on the xG data in the league but more concerningly of late is that over the last four matches they are only creating 0.57xG from open play per 90 minutes. In other words, they don’t really look like scoring.

Sticking with the theme of prevailing narratives this Middlesbrough side are subject to one right now with manager Chris Wilder riding the crest of an optimism wave that is threatening to break the banks of the River Tees. However, they certainly have much more going for them than Rovers. Where Blackburn are creating about half a goal’s worth of open play chances, this current Boro side (over a four game sample) have created 1.38xG per 90, comfortably 2nd in the league behind Fulham.

Middlesbrough are unbeaten in four on the road and whilst Blackburn definitely have one of the best home records in the Championship they did draw their last home game against Huddersfield, and many of their recent home wins have been by fine margins. They also lost 7-0 at home to Fulham of course so defeats can certainly happen.

Rovers will also be without Ben Brereton Diaz who is on international duty and they had some unfortunate injury news that new signing Dilan Markanday will require surgery on a hamstring injury, therefore Blackburn are light on forward players ahead of the game.

All of which leads into the thought that Middlesbrough are the side to be with and we can take extra protection in the form of a draw no bet wager at 1.95.

Birmingham v Peterborough

Birmingham finally picked up a well deserved victory at the weekend and to do it in front of their home supporters, where unrest appears to be growing, will definitely help Lee Bowyer and his players. As their players begin to return from injury Blues should begin to see a return to better form. They do currently have a negative open-play xG ratio of -0.3 over recent games (0.5 created v 0.8 conceded) but that is favourable to Peterborough’s recent record.

Posh are struggling to create open play chances and worse at conceding them, 0.43xG vs 1.23xGA, over the last four matches. We were against them in this column on Saturday and West Brom finally wore them down to make it 12 defeats in 13 away matches this season. Logic tells me that this streak has to snap at some point but to get a decent price against an event that has occurred 12/13 times is something not to ignore.

To add more evidence to get with Birmingham they are currently underperforming their home xPts total by around three points. So it would be expected for them to have more points than they do as their home performances have merited that.

Birmingham also have great motivation to win to put a greater gap between themselves and relegation trouble. This does, of course, work both ways and Peterborough will have circled this match as one to target to try and get something from the game. However, the price is right to back Birmingham here.

Nottingham Forest v Barnsley

The Tricky Trees have continued to assert themselves as one of the better sides in the division over recent games. The morale boosting derby victory over Derby County on Saturday was vindicated in the performance data. Their recent form sees them in 4th in the xPts table, they are currently creating 1.93xG per 90, almost enough chances to score two goals per game. The fact that they aren’t scoring at that rate is a slight concern but it is better to be creating the chances and not be clinical than not create much at all.

Barnsley look almost cut adrift at this stage and completely lacking in confidence. This is not the type of game they will be looking forward to with the threat of Forest and the inconsistent nature of their defence. The Tykes have conceded 1.51xG per 90 over a sample size of the last four games so this adds up to Forest being favourites to score two goals in this game.

If Forest do get two goals it is very unlikely that Barnsley will avoid defeat. They have only scored twice once away from home this season and that was back in August in a 2-2 draw with QPR. They have notched in their last three away games though, so BTTS is a option here.

However, there is a lot in Forest’s favour here and if Steve Cooper doesn’t rotate his squad too much and goes with a strong line-up, which he is likely to, then playing the home win is a good play.

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Luton v Bristol City

The goal potential in this match is very strong in the data. Luton may only average 2.68 goals per game over the course of the season but their home matches average 2.92 goals per game. 

Bristol City have become one of the Championship most entertaining sides of late. We supported goals in their game on Saturday and were rewarded by seeing 4 in a 3-1 win. The Robins are now averaging 4.13 goals in their last eight matches, with 75% of those matches going over 2.5 goals. Away from home over the whole season their matches average 3.75 goals, with an incredible 83% of them going over 2.5 goals. 

Bristol City’s inexperienced team are looking to be direct and get the ball forward to threaten in behind but, despite using a three man central defence, they leave themselves open to attack too often as well. Luton’s attacking instincts will serve them well in this game and no doubt they will still be inspired by the last time they played at home and scored 3, including a last gasp winner, against Bournemouth.

The final piece of evidence towards goals is that Bristol City’s last four matches have seen 3.39xG per 90 be created. Therefore it is no fluke that there are goals in their games, the chances are there to be put away. Luton’s combined xG over the same period is only 1.96, but that is still within the realms of making a three or more goal match a distinct possibility.

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