Michael Flynn has departed Rodney Parade but there is still no ignoring Newport’s record in the EFL Cup. They have won in the first round of the cup in each of the last four seasons and have been known as a cup side for the last few years.

This time last year they took out the now Premier League side Luton Town 3-2 at Kenilworth Road. The year before that saw an away win at Ipswich Town, then in 2020 Championship Swansea were dispatched at Rodney Parade, whilst in 2019 they needed penalties to see of Gillingham, who were a division above Newport at the time.

Charlton won their opening match of the season and have a close eye on promotion this season. The Addicks have built a strong squad, some of which will get a chance here, but it would be folly to suggest that Dean Austin’s focus will be on progressing in this competition. Many summer signings will probably get their debuts here after not starting at the weekend, which could go either way, but could lead to a slightly disjointed performance.

It is stating the obvious to say that Newport’s best XI and squad depth are nowhere near as strong as Charlton’s, However, their motivation, likelihood to play a more familiar side, and recent cup history all point towards giving them some support as an underdog in this tie.

The support of Fleetwood in this tie is not simply a reaction to Port Vale’s horror show on Saturday at Barnsley. However, the 7-0 humbling on the opening day of the season will not have helped Andy Crosby’s standing with anyone at Vale Park. The Valiants fans were not exactly fully on-side with Crosby’s appointment, indeed, many are still upset at the treatment of Daryl Clarke, so the atmosphere around the club isn’t good right now.

By all rights, things at Fleetwood shouldn’t be good either. The situation with the ownership is far from resolved, but Scott Brown hasn’t gone anywhere and neither have the key players. The Cod Army looked decent at the weekend and the collection of players that they have available are better than Vale’s.

In the last two seasons of the first round of the cup, the away sides have collectively scored more than the home sides. This demonstrates that home advantage isn’t perhaps as valuable at this stage of the competition, perhaps an effect of regionalisation cutting travel times down?

Last season, Fleetwood, under Brown, beat Championship side Wigan with a team that had a first choice defence and rotated attack. They also reached the fifth round of the FA Cup for the first time in their history, so Brown knows how to set them up for a cup tie.

Meanwhile, Vale have lost their last three home EFL first round ties by the same scoreline, 1-2. Two of those have been against third tier opposition, with one against second tier.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest that siding with Fleetwood as slight underdogs could be a smart move.

Notts County are currently odds-on for this match. Whilst there is faith that Luke Williams will get it right in League Two and County will have a positive season, the evidence from the weekend is that they won’t necessarily have it all their own way.

Lincoln have demonstrated themselves to be the ultimate pragmatists in League One under Mark Kennedy. Their results against the better sides in the division last term suggest that Kennedy found a good formula to sit and strike, they could be very dangerous in this match as County will be the ones to hold the ball for the majority of the match, would could play into Lincoln’s hands.

The record of away sides in the opening, regionalised round of the EFL Cup has already been mentioned above, but worth reiterating here as Lincoln’s price is somewhat dependent on them being the away side here. Lincoln’s activity in the transfer market over the summer also improved their depth so if there is rotation they should still be strong enough.

This time last year Lincoln went to fourth tier Doncaster Rovers and ran out comfortable 3-0 winners. Also, 2022 saw eleven ties contested between third and fourth tier sides, seven third tier sides progressed, giving the higher tier a pretty healthy win percentage in that sample. More evidence that Lincoln might be being underestimated here.