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UFC 300 takes place Saturday, April 13th, from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Alex Pereira takes on number one contender Jamahal Hill in the main event.
The co-main event will see Strawweight Champion Zhang Weilli battle fellow Chinese competitor Yan Xiaonan.
And Justin Gaethje defends his BMF belt against former Featherweight Champion Max Holloway, in what could be the fight of the year.
We’ve got 4 picks available from our combat sports expert ahead of this historical event.
As always we’ll highlight the best free bets and bookmaker offers during the event to help you bet smarter.
Alex Pereira (C) v Jamahal Hill (#1) – UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
👊🏻 Fight Will Go The Distance – No
Alex Pereira has won 6 of 7 fights since joining the UFC and of his 6 victories 4 have come by KO/TKO. Jamahal Hill meanwhile, has had 9 UFC fights only tasting defeat once, and of his 8 wins 5 have come by KO/TKO.
Between them they have entered the Octagon 16 times and have only seen the final bell 4 times.
The takedowns average/15 min suggest neither fighter will look to grapple. The Brazilian has a takedown average of 0.19 whereas Hill hasn’t attempted a single takedown.
Both fighters are identical when it comes to reach (79 inch) with a classic orthodox v southpaw.
Pereira lands 5 strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 62%, whereas Hill’s output is a little higher with 7 strikes landed per minute with 54% accuracy.
Their defensive statistics are almost identical but we would say Pereira’s stats are more impressive given the level of opponent faced.
It’s clear Hill hasn’t faced the same calibre of fighter, with his last fight over a year ago against an ageing Glover Teixeira.
Hill hasn’t competed since January 2023, and in that time Pereira has had 3 fights, including a title fight.
Ring rust is absolutely a factor in the fight game. We have to give the edge to the champion here in the main event. He has 3 x the amount of Octagon time in the last 12 months with 62% striking accuracy against a much higher level of opponent than Hill.
That being said, Hill has a string of finishes under his belt and the champ has tasted a TKO loss before.
Zhang Weili (C) v Yan Xiaonan (#2) – UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship
👊🏻 Zhang Weili to Win
This is an all-Chinese co-main event for the women’s strawweight championship.
Zhang Weili (c) has notched 3 wins in a row, 2 by finish, and one dominant decision against Amanda Lemos in her last outing.
Zhang has 8 wins with 4 finishes and the current champ has taken notable wins over former women’s champions Carla Esparza and Joanna Jędrzejczyk finishing them both via KO and submission respectively.
Yan Xiaonan has won her last two fights including a KO finish over Jéssica Andrade – the only finish on her UFC record of her 8 wins (7 wins by decision).
Before losing against common foe, Carla Esparza by TKO, the challenger began her UFC career with 6 fights unbeaten, winning all by decision.
The average fight time between them is 13 minutes 13 seconds, which would lead us to believe the fight is likely to go the distance.
The current champion has more tools in her arsenal, with submission, TKO, KO, and decision victories throughout her UFC career.
Zhang lands 5.94 significant strikes per minute with 51% accuracy, whereas Yan lands 5.55 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy. When it comes to grappling, Zhang gets 2.29 takedowns per 15 minutes whereas Yan gets 0.86.
We can see the current champion looking for a takedown at the end of each round to bank the points, and with a higher striking output, we believe Zhang will pinch this in a close fight.
Justin Gaethje (C) v Max Holloway (#2 FW) – UFC BMF Championship
👊🏻 Max Holloway Double Chance – KO/TKO or Submission
This is one of the most exciting fights at UFC 300 and the one we are looking forward to the most.
Justin Gaethje has won his last two fights against top UFC brass, Dustin Poirier and rising star Rafael Fiziev. In his last 5 fights, the Highlight Reel has won 3 lost 2 – his two losses both coming in title fights against the champions Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov.
In his 12 UFC fights, he’s only gone the distance twice, and of his 8 wins, he’s won 6 by KO or TKO taking his average fight time to 9:46.
Looking at his UFC record, his road in the world’s biggest promotion has been a hard and gruelling one. Every name on his record is a top fighter, he’s had no gatekeeper fights, it’s one of the most impressive records in the division.
In the last 6 years, he’s only ever lost to the champion and he’s been active – fighting almost twice per year since 2018.
Gaethje has a style where he gives a shot to take one. He lands 7.35 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 7.50 strikes per minute.
Max Hollaway is more elusive while still maintaining a high output. The Hawaiian lands 7.17 strikes per minute and absorbs 4.75 strikes per minute.
The former champion has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with the loss coming against Alex Volkanovski. His overall record is 32 fights (28 in the UFC) with 25 wins – 11 by KO, 12 by decision, and 2 by submission.
2014 saw the Hawaiian collate a 13-fight winning streak, where he picked up the title against Pettis. Since the start of that 2014 strap season run, he’s only lost against Porier and Volkanovski, the latter being his last 3 record blemishes.
Both guys have a solid chin, Holloway has never been finished by KO or TKO, and Gaethje only twice in his career.
The winner of this fight is the person who can hit and not be hit. Holloway has a slightly better defensive style, which is why we’re giving the edge to the Hawaiian.
Charles Oliveira (#1 LW) v Arman Tsarukyen (#4 LW)
👊🏻 Charles Oliveira Double Chance – KO/TKO or Submission
Charles Oliveira has won 4 of his last 5 fights with his only loss coming from current champion Islam Makhachev.
His 4 wins are over top-ranked opponents Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, Justin Gaethje and Beneil Dariush. Even more impressively the Brazilian finished all 4 in spectacular style with 2 submissions and 2 KO/TKOs.
The former champion had an 11-fight winning streak before losing the title to Makhachev.
‘Do Bronx’ has 34 wins, including 10 by KO (29%) and 21 by submission (62%) – the most in UFC history.
Although Oliveira has an excellent grappling game he likes to keep it on the feet with 54% striking accuracy with 58% of his strikes targeting the head.
During his UFC career, he’s notched 22 wins with only 2 decisions. He has 20 finishes under the UFC banner, which is the most in the company’s history – behind Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone.
Kevin Lee is perhaps the most high-profile wrestler he’s submitted. Regarding the Russian-Dagestani contingent Oliveira has only faced the current champion.
Arman Tsarukyan is of Armenian-Russian descent and holds a UFC record of 8 wins and two losses. Of his 8 wins, he has 4 KO/TKOs.
Before entering the UFC he had 7 first-round finishes in 14 fights, however, since progressing to the world’s premier promotion he’s found it harder to get the same level of finishes.
64% of his strikes are aimed at the opponents head with a 48% accuracy, but Oliveira has proven he can strike and finish the best in the UFC and we don’t see Tsarukyan as an elite striker just yet.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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