Since becoming lightweight champion in 2022, Islam Makhachev has solidified himself as the pound-for-pound best fighter in MMA. His victories over Charles Oliveira and Alexander Volkanovski (twice) are incredible pieces of form and the 32-year-old will be hoping to add future hall of famer Dustin Poirier to his resume this weekend. ‘The Diamond’ is a perennial contender who has challenged for the belt twice already but he punched his ticket to a third attempt by defeating Benoit St Denis back in March. He started as an underdog in that fight and although it’s an impressive victory, history shows us that he struggles anytime he reaches world championship level. His previous two attempts both ended in defeat by submission, including a loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov (who coaches Makhachev) and unfortunately for him, Makhachev is cut from the same cloth. Makhachev has been labelled ‘Khabib 2.0’ and it’s his willingness to finish fights that set him apart from his hero and coach. There is a blueprint to beat Poirier and although he won’t allow things to be easy for the champion, the submission finish should present itself once Makhachev asserts dominance in the grappling exchanges.

The co-main event is a fascinating matchup between two middleweights who have been on a collision course for many years. Former champion Sean Strickland will be looking to bounce back after losing the belt to Dricus Du Plessis in January and Brazilian Paulo Costa is looking to build momentum for this first time in his UFC career. Strickland pulled off one of the biggest upsets in recent history when he beat Israel Adesanya to become UFC champion but he has always had the ability to mix it with the best in the sport. It’s his habit of attracting bad press in his personal life that has often overshadowed his impressive performances inside the octagon. Costa is an enigmatic character himself and despite his obvious ability, his lack of dedication to his career has left so many unanswered questions around the Brazilian. Three fights in three years is not good enough but his latest performance against another former champion Robert Whittaker suggested he still has plenty left to offer the sport of MMA. This fight will play out on the feet and as the more dynamic striker, Costa will have an advantage. He was unlucky not to get the win against Whittaker and a repeat of that performance would be enough for him to beat Strickland and punch his ticket to a world title shot in the next 12 months.

Perhaps our most ambitious pick on the card but based on what we have seen over the years, Kevin Holland to beat Michal Oleksiejczuk by submission is overpriced. Holland is a hugely popular character in the UFC and with 20 fights under his belt, he is one of the most experienced athletes on the roster. Oleksiejczuk is not as experienced as Holland but he has 12 bouts in the UFC and is consistently one of the most entertaining fighters regardless of if he wins or loses. The reality is neither man is likely to become the champion at any point but they provide guaranteed value for money every time. Oleksiejczuk has five losses in his UFC and four of those have come by way of submission. The 29-year-old has a clear hole in his game and it’s one that an experienced ju-jitsu black belt like Kevin Holland can expose. The American has several submission finishes on his record and has finished accomplished grapplers like Michael Chiesa along the way. He has a clear advantage if this fight hits the mat and if he can get it there, he can finish this fight inside the distance.

We get another intriguing middleweight clash further down the card as two rising stars of the division Roman Kopylov and Cesar Almeida clash. Brazilian Almeida is only 1-0 in the UFC so to be matched with someone as highly skilled as Kopylov is a hint at just how highly the UFC rate him. At 36, he doesn’t have time to waste but he had an extensive career in kickboxing, including multiple fights against UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira and he equipped himself well in that world which suggests he can make his presence felt in this middleweight division. Roman Kopylov has been in the UFC slightly longer than his opponent this weekend but despite some impressive victories, he fell short last time against Anthony Hernandez and he will be keen to reinstate himself as a contender with a win here. Both men have beautiful striking and numerous highlight reel knockouts on their record so this fight could provide a viral moment but it’s the experience of Kopylov that appeals most. He will need to be better than he was against Hernandez but the Russian has shown he can bounce back before and he can do it again here as a slight underdog.