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UFC 311 takes place this Sunday morning at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.
Two title fights await, as Islam Makhachev looks to defend his belt against fan-favourite Renato Moicano, with the Brazilian stepping in on 24 hours notice to replace the injured Arman Tsarukyan. Elsewhere Georgian Merab Dvalishvili makes his first title defence at bantamweight against another Dagestani wrestler, Umar Nurmagomedov.
It’s why we’ve found some good value in the MMA tips & best bets below:
- Islam Makhachev v Renato Moicano – Fight to End via Submission (2.0)
- Umar Nurmagomedov by Points (1.91)
- Jiri Prochazka to Win (2.0)
- Payton Talbott by KO/TKO (1.53)
Islam Makhachev (C) v Renato Moicano (#10) – UFC Lightweight Championship
👊🏻 Fight to End via Submission (2.0)
- Another UFC main event forced into a last-minute change, as fan favourite Renato Moicano steps up to replace the injured Arman Tsarukyan on 24 hours’ notice to challenge for the belt.
- While this act of courage is commendable, it’s arguably made it an easier night at the office for reigning champion Islam Makhachev.
- Bookmakers have the Russian as short as 1.08 to win the fight with Moicano a 6.50 outsider.
- Value can be found however in backing the fight to end via submission at EVS.
- Moicano’s bread and butter is BJJ, and any chance of causing a biblical upset will most likely occur with him off his back once Islam inevitably takes him down.
- Expect Makhachev to rely on what he does best, wrestling, and grind Moicano down on the ground before taking his back.
- This selection covers the possibility of Moicano causing a monumental upset, but it will all likely land if Makhachev gets the Brazilian’s back.
Merab Dvalishvili (C) v Umar Nurmagomedov (#2) – UFC Bantamweight Championship
👊🏻 Umar Nurmagomedov by Points (1.91)
- Another Dagestani looking to acquire gold, as ‘Cousin’ Umar Nurmagamedov takes on reigning champion Merab Dvalishvili in the co-main event for the 135 lbs title.
- Georgian Dvalishvili is looking to make the first defence of his title following a dominant decision win over Sean O’Malley at The Sphere back in September.
- Dvalishvili comes into this one as the underdog, which is unsurprising when you factor he’s facing a Nurmagomedov.
- Only one of Dvalishvili’s 12 UFC wins have come by finish, while half of Nurmagamedov’s in his career have come via the judges’ scorecards.
- Odds of 1.91 for Nurmagomedov to win on points seem generous. He won’t be given an easy ride by the champion and will expect at least a challenging grappling game.
- That being said, the Russian is 1.36 to win in his first title fight for a reason. Expect this one to be an elite grappling exchange over 25 minutes with Nurmagomedov getting his hand raised.
Jiri Prochazka (#2) v Jamahal Hill (#3) – Light Heavyweight
👊🏻 Jiri Prochazka to Win (2.0)
- It’s quite a surprise to see Jamahal Hill priced as the favourite for this 205 lbs fight, as he faces another former champion in Czech warrior Jiri Prochazka.
- Hill has become a much-maligned pantomime villain amongst fans in recent months and makes his first octagon appearance since being knocked by Alex Pereira in the main event of UFC 300.
- Being KO’d by’ Poatan’ is a feeling Prochazka knows all too well, having been flatlined by the Brazilian twice in the past 18 months.
- Odds of EVS for Prochazka to win seem too good to pass up. Hill’s passage to winning his UFC title could be seen as somewhat underwhelming having only really beat Glover Texeira and an over-the-hill Thiago Santos.
- Jiri is the more well-rounded fighter, and I feel bookmakers are looking at his two KO losses to Alex Pereira and holding that against him.
- Backing him to win via KO at 2.75 is a decent longshot, we’ll play it safe with Prochazka to win on the nose at EVS.
Payton Talbott v Raoni Barcelos – Bantamweight
👊🏻 Payton Talbott by KO/TKO (1.53)
- Payton Talbott has proved he is one of the fighters to watch in 2025, with his nonchalant, fan-friendly style proving a hit last year with two KO wins and two Performance of the Night bonuses in 2024.
- The UFC are going to plan out his route to the top, a tactic we’ve seen with other profitable commodities like Paddy Pimblett in recent years.
- In his way is 37-year-old Raoni Barcelos, who is currently 2-4 in his last six fights in the organisation.
- Like Makhachev, Talbott is priced as an overwhelming 1.08 favourite here, but the price of 1.53 for him to win by KO looks like the pick.
- His KO of promising South African Cody Saaiman showed Talbott has what it takes to go far in the UFC, especially when you consider he is only 26.
- Seven of his nine wins have come via KO, and while Barcelos has only lost once via KO, he is a fighter on the decline being fed to a profitable up-and-comer.
- This selection takes our accumulator just shy of 11/1 and is a logical final pick for UFC 311.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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